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JAN 4th Coastal


H2O
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I remember a storm in 1998 or 1999 that was calling for little accumulation all day and the Fox 5 10:00 news came on and the totals jumped way up to 8+ bc the Low hugged closer to the coast at the last minute. Point being—powerful Low pressure in Hatteras near the coast can be unpredictable until 6-12 hours out 

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Just now, Hurricanegiants said:

I remember a storm in 1998 or 1999 that was calling for little accumulation all day and the Fox 5 10:00 news came on and the totals jumped way up to 8+ bc the Low hugged closer to the coast at the last minute. Point being—powerful Low pressure in Hatteras near the coast can be unpredictable until 6-12 hours out 

Wasn't that Jan 25, 2000, or is this another storm I'm not hearing of. Jan 25 matches that description. 

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It's going to be a kicker. That's almost certain. We just need it to be lazy and slow about it. And hope the nam tracks are correct.
I always respect your knowledge and our discussions here but I respectfully disagree. This feature that a few are touting as a 'kicker' is amplifying or digging S or just East of South. At 33 hours is the critical frame on the nam. If we are looking at the same feature, that energy amplifying in the OV is damn close to pinching off. There is no mechanism forcing this East to kick. The only thing I see is convective flareup well east of lp popping up around the same time as this 'kick' east. If that feature continue to trend towards more amplification or even closing off the theory of this being a kicker is debunked as the flow will back and the system will stay tucked if not become fully captured. Im not saying this will happen just making my opinion on this 'kicker'. There are so many dynamics going on with this that we could be seeing a rare system where guidance still doesnt have a complete handle even while the storm is upon us. You may also be right and the ov energy moves E and bumps our storm well east but I find it hard to believe a 2ndary amplifying sw in the OV trof is going to jist nudge a sub 960 low off to the NE like that. Best convection should be farther W where strong fetch off warm gulf stream clashes with sjb freezing mid atl 2m temps and rock solid frozen ground. Huge thermal gradient along coast will have bigger influence on storm than many are giving credit.
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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

RGEM looks like the biggest hit on the 12z euro ens with pushing precip all the way to HGR. heh.

Several hours of atleast light snow all the way back  to Hagerstown. Wow. Hopefully the globals continue the trends. Didn't the 0z models have recon data ingested?

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