CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So definitely would not shock me if the global’s tickke west again today. They did stabilize overnight but this is a pretty anomalous system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: So definitely would not shock me if the global’s tickke west again today. They did stabilize overnight but this is a pretty anomalous system. That PV anomaly has my attention. That's going to light off some serious convection in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's a pretty deep PV anomaly skirting the northern Gulf of Mexico. Some serious subsidence behind it, even at the highest level WV product. And the ozone products confirm there is a little stratospheric air in there. How would the PV (polar vortex?) anomaly affect our low in the Bahamas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: No blizzard for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angus Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, sbos_wx said: Hmm, there's a couple different ones to choose from. I'd defer to some of our South Shore posters but closest to Boston is Nantasket/Hull Anywhere along Atlantic Ave or Nantasket Blvd. In Hull. If you can get to end of Forest Ave in Cohasset to Black Rock Beach that will be an impressive scene but parking there is problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, WaPo said: How would the PV (polar vortex?) anomaly affect our low in the Bahamas? Potential vorticity. It will act to induce cyclonic circulation on the mid levels. At the same time convection developing off Florida will create a low level PV anomaly that will induce further cyclonic circulation in the mid levels. When these two sync up is when this low is going to really start to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow...overnights bumped a lot of precipitation back out weest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM is prob tossed. It always tends to have a run that is way further west than other guidance inside 36 hours. Would want to see the rgem jump on board before considering that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Potential vorticity. It will act to induce cyclonic circulation on the mid levels. At the same time convection developing off Florida will create a low level PV anomaly that will induce further cyclonic circulation in the mid levels. When these two sync up is when this low is going to really start to strengthen. Gotcha. So, the PV could make the low strengthen faster and further to the west than what the globals have predicted; giving the storm more time to deepen, and more of an opportunity for it to phase in with the GL Kicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: If the 6z 3km were to verify, okx will get hanged in times square by the angry mob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 While ordinarily I'd be focused on the op runs at this point, with systems that have been steadily shfiting, I think it's helpful to put more weight on the ensmebles than might otherwise be the case. As such, the GEFS look clustered west of the mean which would suggest to me that the trend is not yet done. I'm not sure how the spread on the EPS looked. Either way, lol at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4-6 inches of snow expected for my area i'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 00z EURO matches my first call map perfectly now...deform from ORH to KEV. Mid level deform band. Whomever ends up under that is the 18-22" winner. Might be a narrow zone somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM going with ridiculous snow total amounts for my area. Yeah right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RikC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 39 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Local Boston affiliates ABC/NBC/CBS all have max snowfall around and just South of Boston. General 10-15”+ from all 3. Ch 7 12-16” Ch 5 10-15” Ch 4 12”+ NBC in Boston is now Ch 10; not 7 (which is independent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Congrats Hippy for getting into a warning zone. What a thing of beauty seeing the blizzard warning from the MVY to NB. With the exception of Suffolk County which apparently is bothering Jay a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM going with ridiculous snow total amounts for my area. Yeah right.Don’t discount it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 LOL at BOX's low-end map. It would be very funny if that's what ended up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Don’t discount it just yet . Some western revenge there lol we would take with open arms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 03z SREFs are pretty "juiced" NE DIPA style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Would be funny if the NAM verifies, textbook scenario when the biggest snow totals occur in a completely different location than forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wasn’t there a storm in January 2011, maybe 11-12th timeframe, where the nam led the way up to the event and ended up the winner? Blind squirrel type moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hi-Res RGEM spitting out 40mm. ~1.60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Some western revenge there lol we would take with open arms No...I just think it all depends on where that deform band sets up. It certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibilities that it rotates into central or western ct or central mass etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Hi-Res RGEM spitting out 40mm. ~1.60" Most approve!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think the Nam will certainly correct itself a bit but the meso models have been all over this thing much better in my opinion. Think the global s have been struggling to deal with all the convection down south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WintersComing said: I think the Nam will certainly correct itself a bit but the meso models have been all over this thing much better in my opinion. Think the global s have been struggling to deal with all the convection down south . Since the euro is also a meso of sorts it should be the go to and that’s why it almost always is. I think you’ll be able to seal the 12z output today and mail it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Don’t discount it just yet . OKX seemed very careful to mention the 6z NAM in their early am discussion. Even seems they delayed their update some (relative to when watches/warnings were issued) to squeeze that one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Since the euro is also a meso of sorts it should be the go to and that’s why it almost always is. I think you’ll be able to seal the 12z output today and mail it in.Agree....if things aren’t in better agreement by 12z....well forkit who knows lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 36 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: NAM going with ridiculous snow total amounts for my area. Yeah right. New York crew I'm sure will be riding that like Secretariat. We toss for now. Do still expect more ticks west today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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