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lilj4425

The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread

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1 hour ago, snowlover91 said:

FWIW the Swiss one backed down a lot on the 18z run. The Friday system looks just about done but there might be a nice little surprise in Eastern NC tomorrow morning if it’s cold enough for snow. 

So did the 18z ICON with amounts especially across lower SC.  The SWISS model is pretty cool with its resolution and picking up urban heat islands but time will tell in a couple of days how right or wrong these are.  

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10 hours ago, griteater said:

To go along with what Widre said, processes that produce precipitation mostly occur aloft, above the surface.  The movement of surface highs and lows are also dictated by the flow configuration above the surface.  In a simple view for this 'storm', just look at the direction of the flow at 500mb over the southeast.  If you want to see precip get back into the upstate, you want to see more of a SW to NE orientation to the height lines over the southeast instead of the predominant west to east (see 2 images on the left at 500mb and 700mb) - that would lead to an increase in both the moisture transport and rising motion for precip generation.

c4a8d98.gif

 

GRIT, 

I am glad you posted this, so I could add in some commentary. Speaking of moisture transport and especially during CAD situations in the Carolina's, I have always studied the storms that have BUSTED IN OUR FAVOR. I can distinctly remember seeing forecasts for 1"-2" of snow and under a WWA, only to see the storm produce MUCH MORE snow and we end up with 6"-8" and under a WSW, hence, we all need to pay attention to how much confluence there is, as well as the strength of the HP's, as well as timing of the short waves. There is plenty of pieces available, to where a ULL can create havoc and the total dynamics are changed. If I am not mistaken, based on RECENT DATA, we have seen QPF overperform time and time again. I guess the case in point here is we have the main ingredients for a significant winter storm and it will all collude sooner, rather than later. 

Thanks for all your input and PBP with all of these "potentials"! 

Best regards, 

Jason 

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I think we can scratch off the 29th storm. The German model finally dropped it and no model really supports anything outside of the NAM for some areas of SC and GA. 

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16 hours ago, snowlover91 said:

Sure it’s a self-limiting process but when you have the best models like the NAM showing sleet and freezing rain, you can trust it with pretty high confidence as they are great with thermals, CAD, and they do in fact factor in WAA vs CAA and the latent heat release. Inside 48 hours no global model should be relied on as the mesoscale models like the 3km NAM and RGEM are vastly superior. 

Notice on the 12km NAM the winds are NE indicative of the HP still dominating the surface flow. If the GLL was dominant these winds would be out of the SE. Even well to our west there is no SW wind at the surface as the GLL is simply not relevant here. 

namconus_mslp_wind_seus_45.png

Now notice the dewpoints to the NE. Plenty of cold, dry air to advect in and sustain the ice. Again notice winds are NE.

namconus_Td2m_seus_46.png

Notice how the winds backing in VA. 

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11 hours ago, Solak said:
DSAH7UKWsAEKIJC.jpg

I can't believe the NWS put out  WWA for basically a none event.  Not the first time though.  Sunrise in another hour plus.  Dewpoints have been rising the last several hours. Essentially those under a current WWA have dewpoints at 30 and above.  Currently looking at radar and temps. Cold enough dewpoints to support zr at first.  But quickly scours out.  Very very shallow cold to be overtaken by waa. Eastern areas of the WWA at 35 to 38 degrees. No way they drop below freezing.  

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6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

33/22 IMBY! Precip knocking on the door. SWS out from GSP, for light ZR!!

May have to update that. Per Rader that's all snow entering upstate and field looks fantastic. 31/26 here. Made it down to 27 earlier.

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2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

May have to update that. Per Rader that's all snow entering upstate and field looks fantastic. 31/26 here. Made it down to 27 earlier.

Yeah, could be a nice little suprise and hit during peak rush hour! Side note KK on 21, just said bone dry for Sun/Mon, lol! She might be right, but the big two latest runs, have the storm

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10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

33/22 IMBY! Precip knocking on the door. SWS out from GSP, for light ZR!!

For how long? From Huntsville to chatt is mixed precip.

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Light snow falling here  in gainesville. Wasn't planning on being here today but a nice little bonus for having to. 

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

They expect it to end by 9 in the statement. LOTS of people are going to be very surprised, just going off radar!

Sure.  Alot of precip over GA.  Once that rain starts falling expect those temps to rise.  Alot of 33-37 degree rain falling 

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Currently 33 light snow, sleet mixed! Winning and ready to call it a winter! ;)

Can confirm light snow and sleet south of GSP in Simpsonville

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11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Currently 33 light snow, sleet mixed! Winning and ready to call it a winter! ;)

Congrats That's just confirmation for me trolling and Buckeye too ban me.  Just proof the CAD not as strong as prog.

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3 hours ago, FLweather said:

Notice how the winds backing in VA. 

FLweather - the whole debate about CAD was referring to Friday not today. Go back and look at the dates on the maps posted. Anyway, doesn't look like there will be much, if any, precip then

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3 hours ago, FLweather said:

Notice how the winds backing in VA. 

Not going to continue to debate this but I believe I and others have made it pretty clear why it would have been ice as modeled if there was ample precip in those areas Friday. 

My friend is reporting snow in Macclesfield, NC area and said it’s already covering the roof and sticking to grassy surfaces. 

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1 hour ago, FLweather said:

Congrats That's just confirmation for me trolling and Buckeye too ban me.  Just proof the CAD not as strong as prog.

Read more and post less  :angry:    The only confirmation that has happened is the fact you have no clue what you are talking about.  You are on thin ice so tread carefully  ;) 

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19 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Read more and post less  :angry:    The only confirmation that has happened is the fact you have no clue what you are talking about.  You are on thin ice so tread carefully  ;) 

You have been on these boards/forums long y6  You are think ice

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