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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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22 minutes ago, H2O said:

Guys, I hate to be the ball buster after 1(one) run of the GFS but another reminder to keep posts on point, stop with the "wow!" "Jesus" posts and I'm about to delete all and any post 300hr snow maps.  They are total weenie trash as multiple things can change between now and then. 

240hr maps are fine.  

My apologies. About half of the snow map posts are my fault. I'm acting like we're not used to having more than 1 week where we get no snow in the Winter, so that's my bad. Like I said, as good as digital snow, even if within 240 hours out. 

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How about posting the weenie snow maps in the digital snow thread for those who think they are cool to look at? I am ok seeing an ensemble mean snowfall map here and there, but this thread has really been crapped up with unrealistic fantasy maps from op runs. This is a discussion thread, and they are not worth discussing for one second.

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My apologies. About half of the snow map posts are my fault. I'm acting like we're not used to having more than 1 week where we get no snow in the Winter, so that's my bad. Like I said, as good as digital snow, even if within 240 hours out. 


No worries, Cobalt. This long time lurker appreciates your enthusiasm. You are a great add to this board and you get a hall pass this time. Gonna be a great couple of weeks here.


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1 minute ago, dallen7908 said:

With respect to next Friday, isn't this the time when someone points out that CAD is usually underdone by the GFS while someone else cautions that the operational GFS (ECMWF) has no skill beyond 7 (7 1/2) days.  I'll be watching from afar; off to northern Vermont middle of next week chasing winter (oops). 

It all depends on if this sets up to be a CAD event. Could be more of a costal type storm, but yes, CAD is usually underdone by most models, evens shortrange. Presidents day 2016 is a prime example of this. Many areas overperformed on snow/ice, and the changeover happened nearly 6 hours later than originally forecast

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Wow, that's a remarkably good run of the EPS.  I count 13 members that bring the 6 inch to DC and only 4 complete disasters.  I'm guessing the op Euro showing a southern slider during the 28-30 period was an outlier from its ensembles.

Yes, the EPS does look good, as does the GEFS. With a system so far out in fantasy land, posting snowfall maps is ridiculous. Focus on ensembles at this range. 

 

consider this a warning: I will be hiding fantasy snowfall maps. we have a thread for that nonsense. 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

For those that call the snow maps trash....we know....and have known.  No matter what level of wheenie badge we carry, most are beyond that.

What value they serve is to show is potential for noteworthy opps during a period that has been discussed for the last couple weeks.  We know verification scores are .00 something. 

It was off hour...early am, and it wasnt like anyone posted a 3" snow total at 384hrs.  Whether fact of fiction, you rarely see stuff like this.  

Now....back to discussing....

 

 

too bad. take it to another thread. 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

For those that call the snow maps trash....we know....and have known.  No matter what level of wheenie badge we carry, most are beyond that.

What value they serve is to show is potential for noteworthy opps during a period that has been discussed for the last couple weeks.  We know verification scores are .00 something. 

It was off hour...early am, and it wasnt like anyone posted a 3" snow total at 384hrs.  Whether fact of fiction, you rarely see stuff like this.  

Now....back to discussing....

 

 

I don't think it would be an issue if it was just a map or two. Just for general consumption. But this constant nonstop posting of them? That is a whole different beast.

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I don't think it would be an issue if it was just a map or two. Just for general consumption. But this constant nonstop posting of them? That is a whole different beast.

Another thing that is annoying is the size. When posting a map it takes a few extra seconds to scale it down. Makes it much more palatable when browsing the thread when you don't get HUGE map after HUGE map. It's almost seizure inducing.

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I don't think it would be an issue if it was just a map or two. Just for general consumption. But this constant nonstop posting of them? That is a whole different beast.

Yeah I get it.  I posted a couple....I'm done.  It was 5:45-6:00 and I could hear most of yas still snoring..

Like i stated, its not something you see every day.

Someone else can post em.  I'm good w/ chatter about it.

ok....back to the weather...  It MAY snow next week.

 

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Another thing that is annoying is the size. When posting a map it takes a few extra seconds to scale it down. Makes it much more palatable when browsing the thread when you don't get HUGE map after HUGE map. It's almost seizure inducing.

We might as well talk about quoting humongous posts over and over to only say great post...agree. I mean as long as we are complaining this morning

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

We might as well talk about quoting humongous posts over and over to only say great post...agree. I mean as long as we are complaining this morning

Yeah that is annoying too. Just make a post using @. Or use the "like" feature. When replying to a post that includes multiple maps/graphics, just delete them in the reply, leaving only the text. No need to see that stuff repeated 5 times.

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

Yes, the EPS does look good, as does the GEFS. With a system so far out in fantasy land, posting snowfall maps is ridiculous. Focus on ensembles at this range. 

 

consider this a warning: I will be hiding fantasy snowfall maps. we have a thread for that nonsense. 

Snowfall maps are ridiculous, and the snowfall mean is even more so.  And I think that applies close in as well.  Precip maps, h5 maps, h7 maps, h850 maps, precip tot maps, all that is good stuff.  Not the snow maps.  Those are "feel good"  maps, nothing more. 

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Man. That ice storm on 29th/30th on the GFS morning would be epic! Verbatim out here it is 6 hours of snow followed by 8 hours of ice then a flash freeze a few hours later. Stays frozen for few days then we get bombed with a coastal. We are going to have a lot to track over the next few weeks at least.

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