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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Euro similar to the GFS for Christmas eve. Nice little event but equally as fragile. Nice to see 12z ops all give a little holiday frozen cheer. lol

quite amazed they are tracking with each other..hardly happens it seems this far out...

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro similar to the GFS for Christmas eve. Nice little event but equally as fragile. Nice to see 12z ops all give a little holiday frozen cheer. lol

goes into Christmas Day as well... bring that wave of moisture about 75 miles SE and we get a decent lil snow event at 222-234

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Flip to zr then rain verbatim but it's another set of runs with frozen centered right around the holiday. I said it before....it's going to be a long week....very long...lol

just for laughs did 0z Euro have similar.  I looked through posts and didn't see it really analyzed..just wondering where we are headed

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

just for laughs did 0z Euro have similar.  I looked through posts and didn't see it really analyzed..just wondering where we are headed

No, 0z was a dry front and cool/cold christmas. The entire setup is razor thin and fragile. My guess is models will slow down the cold but this year seems to want to deliver so who knows. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Looking closer....it would be 1-6" of snow (you know who is 6") with a lot of ice on top. Very wintry event. Just need it to hold for 8 days. lol

who?  Jebman?  I would love to see his posts during an Xmas snow event.  I picture him in boxers making snow angels with a Santa hat

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27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looking closer....it would be 1-6" of snow (you know who is 6") with a lot of ice on top. Very wintry event. Just need it to hold for 8 days. lol

My favorite type of storm. Snow to the sound of sleet, maybe a little freezing rain thrown in and end as snow. Not asking too much.

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EPS somewhat supportive of the op's christmas event. Still a ton of spread and the razor thin margin is apparent even on the ens. If this year really is going to overperform, the Christmas eve/day potential will be a good test. We're conditioned to end up on the wrong side. That doesn't seem to be happening this year so far. Will it continue?

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You can see the issues on the LR 12z EPS. Hopefully we can cash in on any overrunning event near X-mas. Once we get beyond Day 10 on the EPS you see -PNA and +AO. WOuld probably mean any energy would be dumped into the Southwest, boosting the SE Ridge. We'll see though. If somehow we get a SECS X-Mas eve or day none of us would care. 

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