Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: NAM juicer too. Gonna be a lot of WTF’s tomorrow morning as this has not been well advertised or hit hard This has turned into a 1-3” deal right up to the Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Kevin thoughts for the Cape and Islands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Back to reality from a 2005 name drop, HRRR looks very rich and gets better each run, a 2-4 along the south coast would not surprise me, some OES down there too. Its gotten less sheared today as yesterdays has pulled the confluence up father. Couple of things too, instant accumulations on all surfaces and roads will be slick Yeah, I'm not ready to go full jimmy on this yet, but there are encouraging signs. Decent lift, potent s/w etc. Cautious optimism will prevail for now. Hope to regain cover after yesterday's melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NAM juicer too. Gonna be a lot of WTF’s tomorrow morning as this has not been well advertised or hit hard lol It actually cut back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This has turned into a 1-3” deal right up to the Pike I think the 18z NAM actually looked worse. edit: lol, Ryan already beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: lol It actually cut back I wouldn't buy too much into that Ryan, the NAM came north with the surface low track, so I would think the QPF would too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: lol It actually cut back Hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Kevin thoughts for the Cape and Islands? 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 So the short range models looked juiced up a bit more, but the NAM(despite what some are seeing looks worse), is this correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 NYC could see a 2-4" or 3-6" deal out of this system, while BOS could see 1-2" or 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Latest RAP almost puts the south coast into the band, with thundersnow potential and convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Latest RAP almost puts the south coast into the band, with thundersnow potential and convection Just stop with this nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Just stop with this nonsense. Ok, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Nws. Has 1 to 2 in an alert for my area (sw coastal CT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 19z HRRR is pretty nice...obviously you need to take the HRRR beyond 6 hours with a grain of salt. But if that actually develops like that then we're going to see advisory snows in CT-RI-SE MA and prob 1-3 right into the pike region. But I'm not ready to go there yet...18z NAM was a bit of a reality check in that this system still faces some obstacles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Lmao. James can find and turn any Vort max into a phasing Thunder Snow apocalyptic blizzard, that passes even remotely close to the area. Holy Moly that guy has quite the snow goggle imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Lmao. James can find and turn any Vort max into a phasing Thunder Snow apocalyptic blizzard, that passes even remotely close to the area. Holy Moly that guy has quite the snow goggle imagination. Yeah I am overzealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 19z HRRR is pretty nice...obviously you need to take the HRRR beyond 6 hours with a grain of salt. But if that actually develops like that then we're going to see advisory snows in CT-RI-SE MA and prob 1-3 right into the pike region. But I'm not ready to go there yet...18z NAM was a bit of a reality check in that this system still faces some obstacles. The further W you are, the better off I feel about snow further N. I think it's a bit too generous on the northern edge. I like LI, the immediate S Coast,and about 15 mi N for the best banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 You're a nice guy James....just pump the brakes a tad ok lol. Hey, maybe we all get a lil snow overnight tonight..better to be cautious and be pleasantly surprised tomorrow morning, than to be way out there with expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: The further W you are, the better off I feel about snow further N. I think it's a bit too generous on the northern edge. I like LI, the immediate S Coast,and about 15 mi N for the best banding. Yeah SW CT is best spot...furthest removed from the confluence....though the system does try to get a little jolt as it exits stage right, so might have to watch the Cape and esp ACK/MVY for another enhancement area. The soundings are really nice for high ratio fluff (like 20+ to 1) so if we can overcome the low level dryness, someone could pick up a quick 2-3" from like 0.08" of QPF...so this system kind of feels like it has bust potential even though from a liquid standpoint it isn't that big of a deal...but the difference between getting 0.01-0.02" of liquid and 0.10" could be like a dusting versus 2-3" of snow which is kind of a large sensible wx impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I'd take the over for CT. I don't have access to full model suite anymore but it looks pretty sweet for a location like Ginx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I'd take the over for CT. I don't have access to full model suite anymore but it looks pretty sweet for a location like Ginx I'd much rather be SWCT CC shore for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I expect to at least TRIPLE my current seasonal snowfall total* *of about half an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I'd much rather be SWCT CC shore for this Too bad this isn’t being said for a KU type event! But not one person at my office has been mentioned snow, so I imagine some people will be surprised with seeing some snow on he ground tomorrow morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 I can see an inch out of this, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I can see an inch out of this, sure. You're in a great spot for this one...if things break right, you could see 2-3 easily. Like I said before, kind of high bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 This is intriguing in the sense that very little water could produce a few inches of snow... so any positive adjustment in moisture could mean something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You're in a great spot for this one...if things break right, you could see 2-3 easily. Like I said before, kind of high bust potential. high *positive* bust potential for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 God, that event yesterday was just a nightmare. Rains on us and melts a good deal of snow, then crushes the next potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Hrrr still is kind of interesting even to the pike relatively speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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