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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

can someone smarter than me explain why the Euro shifted NW with the precip compared to 00z? 

Same type of backing flow to the NW as other models. Basically, the push from the front off the coast keeps backing off allowing precip to run the boundary more inland than previous runs. 

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

can someone smarter than me explain why the Euro shifted NW with the precip compared to 00z? 

Northern stream vort is a bit stronger and it phases with the southern vort just a bit more. That increases the ridging along the coast and pulls the low back west.

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

can someone smarter than me explain why the Euro shifted NW with the precip compared to 00z? 

The heights ahead of the base of the trough are a tad higher on this run while at the same time the heights with the vort are a tad lower so you get a little better wave that tracks a little farther to the west.  Also I'd be wary of the SBY snow max though one could occur.  Surface temps are above freezing across the entire region though if the precip really falls heavily you can get some additional cooling from melting as the flakes fall through the above freezing air.   

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro like the d8 period as well. Doesn't get organized in time so precip is light but it's a pretty good scenario either way. 

Surface low pops at the VA/MD border   at hour 180. We’d prefer it start further west and south probably, but it’s a time period to watch at least. Probably we should root for a good vort pass because we very likely won’t get any fun Miller B deform band.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s a really small change honestly, which I guess gives hope that it could still pull farther west still. But I’d still lean against it happening. 

I am too, we've been debating whether to write a short article on the threat but are leaning against it..  Need a stronger wave to get excited but I'm not sure there is much potential to get one that is much stronger than the one on today's Euro. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Surface low pops at the VA/MD border   at hour 180. We’d prefer it start further west and south probably, but it’s a time period to watch at least. Probably we should root for a good vort pass because we very likely won’t get any fun Miller B deform band.

Considering we're back to talking about d8...lol...any run that shows either some is or could happen is good enough. 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Considering we're back to talking about d8...lol...any run that shows either some is or could happen is good enough. 

Ha, yeah no doubt. And the D10 setup on the euro is pretty ripe...I feel like @Heisenberg just for saying that. 

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

After looking at the trends yesterday and last night I sort of decided we should be rooting for the trailing wave not the Friday morning one.  I didn't want to say that directly though because i didn't want to start a fight with those pulling for wave 1 on the eastern shore but it's become apparent now so no harm saying it. 

I'll have to disagree with you here (I know, you're crushed lol!) I've always felt that a snow delayed is 90%+ of the time a snow denied. I prefer we get something Friday night, even a sloppy inch, and if Sunday doesn't work, we're at least on the board. I have far less faith in clippers making it over the Apps and doing much for us other than snow showers. Give me a coastal and I'll put all my eggs in that basket any day. And considering how much of a shift we need and what we've seen over the last couple of runs on all the model suites, this is very doable at 72 hrs.+ range. Heck, before you know it, it'll be a rain storm with our luck.

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The whole euro run is real nice...

 

The interesting thing is the GFS/GEFS/CMC/GEPS/Euro/EPS all have the same look d10. PV lobe near the maritimes, fairly broad conus trough, energy diving down into the upper MW, and hints of a gulf connection. D10 is always a joke and rightfully so but when every single piece of reliable guidance shows the same thing it's at least worth pointing out....

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

12zeps_tsnow_m_washdc_20.thumb.png.40185639f0f661636652dc6daf7c334e.png

VS 0z

5a26f384822be_eps_tsnow_m_washdc_20(1).thumb.png.2e9221380158d2864c749e980261bb32.png

Pretty sure both have the clipper included, but the Fri/Sat event is the main part

Thank you for posting.  nice improvement.  Not sure how many more incremental improvements we can get but first flakes have a chance..so I am in. 

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19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll have to disagree with you here (I know, you're crushed lol!) I've always felt that a snow delayed is 90%+ of the time a snow denied. I prefer we get something Friday night, even a sloppy inch, and if Sunday doesn't work, we're at least on the board. I have far less faith in clippers making it over the Apps and doing much for us other than snow showers. Give me a coastal and I'll put all my eggs in that basket any day. And considering how much of a shift we need and what we've seen over the last couple of runs on all the model suites, this is very doable at 72 hrs.+ range. Heck, before you know it, it'll be a rain storm with our luck.

I'm not actually disagreeing with you. But I wasn't talking about the Sunday clipper. The frontal boundary has two different waves along it. Friday morning and another later Friday into Friday night. Both are weak and on most guidance hard to even separate. But I meant the second wave on the front was our better chance because the trough is sharpening up so the second wave has a better chance to amplify some. Runs that key on that instead of the Friday morning wave are the snowier solutions. I'm definitely not punting anything for that Sunday clipper that may or may not even be there. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not actually disagreeing with you. But I wasn't talking about the Sunday clipper. The frontal boundary has two different waves along it. Friday morning and another later Friday into Friday night. Both are weak and on most guidance hard to even separate. But I meant the second wave on the front was our better chance because the trough is sharpening up so the second wave has a better chance to amplify some. Runs that key on that instead of the Friday morning wave are the snowier solutions. I'm definitely not punting anything for that Sunday clipper that may or may not even be there. 

:poster_oops:    :hug:

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20 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I'm wondering how some of you folks survived in Dec 2015 :lol: 

Ha, very true!  Strangely enough...when it became clear December 2015 was headed for a torch early on with nothing good in sight, I was practically rooting for record warmth at that point!  It was the only interesting thing to follow then.

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Ha, very true!  Strangely enough...when it became clear December 2015 was headed for a torch early on with nothing good in sight, I was practically rooting for record warmth at that point!  It was the only interesting thing to follow then.

Well to be fair you got record warmth. Double the previous record in fact!

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The interesting thing is the GFS/GEFS/CMC/GEPS/Euro/EPS all have the same look d10. PV lobe near the maritimes, fairly broad conus trough, energy diving down into the upper MW, and hints of a gulf connection. D10 is always a joke and rightfully so but when every single piece of reliable guidance shows the same thing it's at least worth pointing out....

Its no joke and definitely worth pointing out. That period really has looked solid for a while. I made 2 or 3 posts over the weekend (in the old thread) about the h5 look on both the GEFS and EPS for around the 15th. And it is still holding.

I would remind Mitch that is the week I predicted the first widespread snow event for the MA, but I am sure he remembers, lol.

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