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December Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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3 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Euro nearly gets NYC all snow... ULL in a much better position and our energy digs a bit deeper, Much colder run.. euro says GFS who

MERRY CHRISTMAS

 

 this has always been the GFS error it's why we stayed with a white Christmas forecast at 96 the GFS has SLP on the Polar front ,  and we get closer you will see the center adjust to the Canadian and be on the Arctic boundary.

That way there's more interaction with the ULL. It's what negatively indiced Arctic waves do , thats why you pick a forecast and let the guidance come to you 

We have had the White Christmas idea out since Saturday 

Notice how the Euro is also there 

 

Merry Christmas, I promise picking these things out are not that hard / enjoy - most of you 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_19.png

ecmwf_t850_neng_19.png

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Models keep showing the 29th -30th snowstorm

6z GFS crushes the area with over a foot of snow.

2 ft around the area / 4ft in PA.

It's a major event and it will find its way here.

Obviously thats an absurd solution ,  but the patten should yield a major snowstorm on the EC during this time 

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1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

2 ft around the area / 4ft in PA.

It's a major event and it will find its way here.

Obviously thats an absurd solution ,  but the patten should yield a major snowstorm on the EC during this time 

I agree

Best potential for a huge snowstorm

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44 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I agree

Best potential for a huge snowstorm

Just relentless cold and an active storm track on the GFS.  There’s a massive storm on the 6th of Jan as well.  The main take from this run is that the pattern will be cold, and there is growing support for a -AO as we head into the new year.  I like what I see going forward. 

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Just now, Neblizzard said:

Just relentless cold and an active storm track on the GFS.  There’s a massive storm on the 6th of Jan as well.  The main take from this run is that the pattern will be cold, and there is growing support for a -AO as we head into the new year.  I like what I see going forward. 

Umm Jan 6 ?

Date sounds familiar

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7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gotta love how the gfs just destroys the confluence and plows through the arctic air for the post Christmas storm. 

Storm will probably end up a good 500 miles south than it's current position on the gfs. Strong -EPO with a growing -AO/NAO will not cause a big ridge over the east like the 0z gfs shows. 

That's due to the GFS struggling with the MJO again. It takes the MJO back into a warm phase 7 first instead of the EPS going cold 8-1. Not worth even looking at GFS until it corrects.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif.dff13c8688aedcdf4ed468d7c0222b3c.gif

NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif.dd7c28aff4bf919ad0b67a8bd3a96ef3.gif

 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That's due to the GFS struggling with the MJO again. It takes the MJO back into a warm phase 7 first instead of the EPS going cold 8-1. Not worth even looking at GFS until it corrects.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif.dff13c8688aedcdf4ed468d7c0222b3c.gif

NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif.dd7c28aff4bf919ad0b67a8bd3a96ef3.gif

 

 

 

Why doesn't someone think about manually correcting the MJO forecast so that it doesn't do this?  I mean if we have some confidence in what phase the MJO is going to be, can't there be manual adjustments made to the GFS to reflect that?  Like a course correction.  Direct human input into what the model shows.  It would put real meteorology into modelology.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That's due to the GFS struggling with the MJO again. It takes the MJO back into a warm phase 7 first instead of the EPS going cold 8-1. Not worth even looking at GFS until it corrects.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif.dff13c8688aedcdf4ed468d7c0222b3c.gif

NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif.dd7c28aff4bf919ad0b67a8bd3a96ef3.gif

 

 

 

Question, is the phase 2 of the MJO cold or warm for the east coast? Also the ec sends it into the COD. How does the COD play for the East Coast?

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3 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

MERRY CHRISTMAS

 

 this has always been the GFS error it's why we stayed with a white Christmas forecast at 96 the GFS has SLP on the Polar front ,  and we get closer you will see the center adjust to the Canadian and be on the Arctic boundary.

That way there's more interaction with the ULL. It's what negatively indiced Arctic waves do , thats why you pick a forecast and let the guidance come to you 

We have had the White Christmas idea out since Saturday 

Notice how the Euro is also there 

 

Merry Christmas, I promise picking these things out are not that hard / enjoy - most of you 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_19.png

ecmwf_t850_neng_19.png

Much credit to your initial call.  Nice job.  

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I still like the idea of a few inches of snow away from the immediate coastline on Christmas. I think the city and points East could see a little snow, but those areas could be fighting the subsidence associated with the developing surface low and marginal temperatures at best. 

It's your prototypical miller B that scrapes us and then dumps on New England. 

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47 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I still like the idea of a few inches of snow away from the immediate coastline on Christmas. I think the city and points East could see a little snow, but those areas could be fighting the subsidence associated with the developing surface low and marginal temperatures at best. 

It's your prototypical miller B that scrapes us and then dumps on New England. 

This but I still think we get a heavy car topper possibly more if it comes in overnight just needs to be a benchmark track with a bit of intensity not like the flatter version of GFS depiction

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Not really

We know how the models have been this month.

3 days to iron this out

It seems that La Nina is the ENSO state models have the most problems with.

 

Examples:

Feb 1989 were supposed to get 6-12 inches of snow instead got virga while ACY got buried

Jan 1996 models showed it as suppressed (except E/E)

April 1997 were supposed to get 8-12 inches instead got 1-3 with areas both north and south of us getting much more

Jan 2000 no one saw this heavy snowstorm for DC coming.

Dec 2000 we were supposed to go snow to rain

March 2001 need more be said about this one?! lol

Dec 2010  we got a nice post Christmas day surprise!

 

4 out of 7 were positive busts at least.

 

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The 00z Euro was a bit flatter and weaker with the 500mb jet which is why the SLP developed just offshore instead of overhead.

From a synoptic standpoint, it was actually a move towards the more progressive, weaker GFS.

This trend towards weaker and flatter needs to be watched.

I used to love the Euro, but over the last year, it’s been disappointing to say the least. Whether the update did it or something else, it’s definitely not what it used to be unfortunately. The GFS might actually score a coupe here, which used to be almost unheard of 

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I used to love the Euro, but over the last year, it’s been disappointing to say the least. Whether the update did it or something else, it’s definitely not what it used to be unfortunately. The GFS might actually score a coupe here, which used to be almost unheard of 

the euro would need to fail miserably imo....although it may have been a "step" its absolutely nothing compared to GFS at 500...taking a step back from its super amped solution doesnt mean it trended to the gfs imo....the energy is still ample strong, and the ULL trended slight more SE, the energy bringing our cold injection pushed further south as well...in all the run looked pretty damn similar to its previous 6 runs or so with the exception of some model noise 

 

i think a blend right now is the best call...light snow breaking out along the boundary as our energy swings through on the inverted trough, this isnt a 6-12 for anyone here, never was....1-3 with 3-6 for the further interior best case imo

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