snywx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro nearly gets NYC all snow... ULL in a much better position and our energy digs a bit deeper, Much colder run.. euro says GFS who 3-5" for the interior for xmas morning on the 0z EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro nearly gets NYC all snow... ULL in a much better position and our energy digs a bit deeper, Much colder run.. euro says GFS who MERRY CHRISTMAS this has always been the GFS error it's why we stayed with a white Christmas forecast at 96 the GFS has SLP on the Polar front , and we get closer you will see the center adjust to the Canadian and be on the Arctic boundary. That way there's more interaction with the ULL. It's what negatively indiced Arctic waves do , thats why you pick a forecast and let the guidance come to you We have had the White Christmas idea out since Saturday Notice how the Euro is also there Merry Christmas, I promise picking these things out are not that hard / enjoy - most of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Eps also has shifted the low east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps also has shifted the low east It may shift further. We are seeing almost no progress from the GFS although this run did look better at the upper levels somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Models keep showing the 29th -30th snowstorm 6z GFS crushes the area with over a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models keep showing the 29th -30th snowstorm 6z GFS crushes the area with over a foot of snow. 2 ft around the area / 4ft in PA. It's a major event and it will find its way here. Obviously thats an absurd solution , but the patten should yield a major snowstorm on the EC during this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: 2 ft around the area / 4ft in PA. It's a major event and it will find its way here. Obviously thats an absurd solution , but the patten should yield a major snowstorm on the EC during this time I agree Best potential for a huge snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 44 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I agree Best potential for a huge snowstorm Just relentless cold and an active storm track on the GFS. There’s a massive storm on the 6th of Jan as well. The main take from this run is that the pattern will be cold, and there is growing support for a -AO as we head into the new year. I like what I see going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Neblizzard said: Just relentless cold and an active storm track on the GFS. There’s a massive storm on the 6th of Jan as well. The main take from this run is that the pattern will be cold, and there is growing support for a -AO as we head into the new year. I like what I see going forward. Umm Jan 6 ? Date sounds familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Gotta love how the gfs just destroys the confluence and plows through the arctic air for the post Christmas storm. Storm will probably end up a good 500 miles south than it's current position on the gfs. Strong -EPO with a growing -AO/NAO will not cause a big ridge over the east like the 0z gfs shows. That's due to the GFS struggling with the MJO again. It takes the MJO back into a warm phase 7 first instead of the EPS going cold 8-1. Not worth even looking at GFS until it corrects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Umm Jan 6 ? Date sounds familiar I have been looking at the 1996 analogy too ;-) Especially if it's going to thaw out like it did in Jan 1996 later on, might as well go out with a bang first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: That's due to the GFS struggling with the MJO again. It takes the MJO back into a warm phase 7 first instead of the EPS going cold 8-1. Not worth even looking at GFS until it corrects. Why doesn't someone think about manually correcting the MJO forecast so that it doesn't do this? I mean if we have some confidence in what phase the MJO is going to be, can't there be manual adjustments made to the GFS to reflect that? Like a course correction. Direct human input into what the model shows. It would put real meteorology into modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: That's due to the GFS struggling with the MJO again. It takes the MJO back into a warm phase 7 first instead of the EPS going cold 8-1. Not worth even looking at GFS until it corrects. Question, is the phase 2 of the MJO cold or warm for the east coast? Also the ec sends it into the COD. How does the COD play for the East Coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 41 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Question, is the phase 2 of the MJO cold or warm for the east coast? Also the ec sends it into the COD. How does the COD play for the East Coast? The COD 8-1 is the same as a weak 8-1 which is cold here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The COD 8-1 is the same as a weak 8-1 which is cold here. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: MERRY CHRISTMAS this has always been the GFS error it's why we stayed with a white Christmas forecast at 96 the GFS has SLP on the Polar front , and we get closer you will see the center adjust to the Canadian and be on the Arctic boundary. That way there's more interaction with the ULL. It's what negatively indiced Arctic waves do , thats why you pick a forecast and let the guidance come to you We have had the White Christmas idea out since Saturday Notice how the Euro is also there Merry Christmas, I promise picking these things out are not that hard / enjoy - most of you Much credit to your initial call. Nice job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The 00z Euro was a bit flatter and weaker with the 500mb jet which is why the SLP developed just offshore instead of overhead. From a synoptic standpoint, it was actually a move towards the more progressive, weaker GFS. This trend towards weaker and flatter needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I still like the idea of a few inches of snow away from the immediate coastline on Christmas. I think the city and points East could see a little snow, but those areas could be fighting the subsidence associated with the developing surface low and marginal temperatures at best. It's your prototypical miller B that scrapes us and then dumps on New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 47 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I still like the idea of a few inches of snow away from the immediate coastline on Christmas. I think the city and points East could see a little snow, but those areas could be fighting the subsidence associated with the developing surface low and marginal temperatures at best. It's your prototypical miller B that scrapes us and then dumps on New England. This but I still think we get a heavy car topper possibly more if it comes in overnight just needs to be a benchmark track with a bit of intensity not like the flatter version of GFS depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I am driving upstate from Brooklyn to Roscoe, NY on Saturday night. Think I’ll have trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It's a bit concerning to see the long range NAM this flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's a bit concerning to see the long range NAM this flat. Not really We know how the models have been this month. 3 days to iron this out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The NAM usually shows a monster at this time frame-granted it's the 84 hr nam, but it's usually over-done at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Not really We know how the models have been this month. 3 days to iron this out It's generally a sign that the Euro could be too amped up. Will wait for the rest of the 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Not really We know how the models have been this month. 3 days to iron this out It seems that La Nina is the ENSO state models have the most problems with. Examples: Feb 1989 were supposed to get 6-12 inches of snow instead got virga while ACY got buried Jan 1996 models showed it as suppressed (except E/E) April 1997 were supposed to get 8-12 inches instead got 1-3 with areas both north and south of us getting much more Jan 2000 no one saw this heavy snowstorm for DC coming. Dec 2000 we were supposed to go snow to rain March 2001 need more be said about this one?! lol Dec 2010 we got a nice post Christmas day surprise! 4 out of 7 were positive busts at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The NAM in the last year plus has not exhibited the amped bias at 84 as much as it used to. Still there continues to be little support from most other models and the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The 00z Euro was a bit flatter and weaker with the 500mb jet which is why the SLP developed just offshore instead of overhead. From a synoptic standpoint, it was actually a move towards the more progressive, weaker GFS. This trend towards weaker and flatter needs to be watched. I used to love the Euro, but over the last year, it’s been disappointing to say the least. Whether the update did it or something else, it’s definitely not what it used to be unfortunately. The GFS might actually score a coupe here, which used to be almost unheard of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I used to love the Euro, but over the last year, it’s been disappointing to say the least. Whether the update did it or something else, it’s definitely not what it used to be unfortunately. The GFS might actually score a coupe here, which used to be almost unheard of the euro would need to fail miserably imo....although it may have been a "step" its absolutely nothing compared to GFS at 500...taking a step back from its super amped solution doesnt mean it trended to the gfs imo....the energy is still ample strong, and the ULL trended slight more SE, the energy bringing our cold injection pushed further south as well...in all the run looked pretty damn similar to its previous 6 runs or so with the exception of some model noise i think a blend right now is the best call...light snow breaking out along the boundary as our energy swings through on the inverted trough, this isnt a 6-12 for anyone here, never was....1-3 with 3-6 for the further interior best case imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 and if you wanna get technical about steps...the GFS just took a much bigger step toward the euro then vis versa...GFS is inconsistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 White Xmas for everyone on the cmc and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.