weathafella Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Actually week 4 starts cold then we thaw We’ll be ready for a thaw of that panned out. I’m supposed to head to FL 12/25 returning 12/29. Looking forward to the milder wx for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pattern looks kind of crappy week 4 but we know about week 4's accuracy. Week 3 looks really nice though. Leon with absolutely frigid stuff pressing down from Quebec and above average in the SE. You know that EPO was gonna dump a sh it load of cold air. I look forward to seeing what transpires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Loop the 15 day GEFS and EPS 250 300 mb jets, it's going to get crazy quick starting Christmas eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah 2007 this is not. No, It is not, 41.5" that December, Sitting at 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 hours ago, dryslot said: No, It is not, 41.5" that December, Sitting at 10" Its Dec 14th, not saying its 07 but hold your horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I'm on pace for an average December snowfall wise....soon to be below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 10 hours ago, dryslot said: LOL Huge pna ridge in the long range on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Saddle up cowboys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Saddle up cowboys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Looks like winter is over after mid Jan on the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like winter is over after mid Jan on the weeklies. Lol...that’s a month away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Looks like winter is over after mid Jan on the weeklies.Good. I don't mind the pattern cards being shuffled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Aw cmon Scott! Divulge? (Can’t post, right?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Aw cmon Scott! Divulge? (Can’t post, right?) Read the past few pages. Talking about Euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Aw cmon Scott! Divulge? (Can’t post, right?) That's an ugly look week 4 onward. Trough from western Canada to Baja CA. Ugly if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: That's an ugly look week 4 onward. Trough from western Canada to Baja CA. Ugly if that happens. Should we really take any model output seriously four weeks in advance? The models can’t even come to a consensus the day before an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Last nights 0z Euro run didn't exactly make me all giddy, Looked rather meh the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like winter is over after mid Jan on the weeklies. Let’s see who takes the bait lol. In all seriousness, it doesn’t look promising if you like decent sized events. Maybe we keep scoring 1” clippers, but at some point, we need something bigger if we’re going to keep climo pace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You should see his texts. Down on Xmas week snows and cancelled it after mid Jan We need him to out and out melt ala January 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Should we really take any model output seriously four weeks in advance? The models can’t even come to a consensus the day before an event. Well there is a little skill when talking a wholesale pattern look. The exact details are always much harder. Anyways, it could be wrong...week 4 skill isn't that great. I'm just saying if that happened...it's ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Well there is a little skill when talking a wholesale pattern look. The exact details are always much harder. Anyways, it could be wrong...week 4 skill isn't that great. I'm just saying if that happened...it's ugly. Understood. But just a question here....when week 4 looks good, it always comes with the caveat of "we know how bad week 4 is", but now that it shows something ugly, all of a sudden it has a little skill?? How come it doesn't go both ways? And I'm not worried about a month from now...it'll change anyways. And if not..then we'll all deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Understood. But just a question here....when week 4 looks good, it always comes with the caveat of "we know how bad week 4 is", but now that it shows something ugly, all of a sudden it has a little skill?? How come it doesn't go both ways? And I'm not worried about a month from now...it'll change anyways. And if not..then we'll all deal with it. I said week 4 skill isn't great lol. It gets treated the same way, whether good or bad. That's why I said "if it happens." I do not know...but it would not surprise me to see the -EPO break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I said week 4 skill isn't great lol. It gets treated the same way, whether good or bad. That's why I said "if it happens." I do not know...but it would not surprise me to see the -EPO break down. agree..it can't stay negative forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I wouldn't live or die on the weeklies past week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I wouldn't live or die on the weeklies past week 2 Well if I were to find a positive...it's if we can get those height anomalies in SE Canada, further north. That at least would allow for high pressure to build in as storms come up from the S and SW. The highest anomalies were near and north of New England. So, it's not a true SE ridge verbatim which is good I guess. It's just a milder pattern. Anyways, that's about as much as I can talk about anything past week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well if I were to find a positive...it's if we can get those height anomalies in SE Canada, further north. That at least would allow for high pressure to build in as storms come up from the S and SW. The highest anomalies were near and north of New England. So, it's not a true SE ridge verbatim which is good I guess. It's just a milder pattern. Anyways, that's about as much as I can talk about anything past week 3. Ben Noll would be proud. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That's an ugly look week 4 onward. Trough from western Canada to Baja CA. Ugly if that happens. It wouldn't surprise me if this happened...from the non scientific view point, no pattern stays for ever. The ridge on the west coast is not going to last forever, eventually it will be replaced with a trough. A trough that is proportional in strength and staying power of the ridge it replaced. Its like an atmospheric seesaw- when one side is down, the other side is up...the seesaw is not both up or both down at the same time...yes, I know it's never that simple...im sure someone will chime in with something...yada yada yada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Looks like free weeklies are coming soon to wx.graphics... Quote EPS 46-day (coming soon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like free weeklies are coming soon to wx.graphics... Unfortunately I can't find an actual H85 temp to save my life on there. Maue has plenty of H85 T anomaly maps though. I want the actual raw H7, H85, and H92 temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That's an ugly look week 4 onward. Trough from western Canada to Baja CA. Ugly if that happens. I buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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