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Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

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26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Well that settles it.  >65 inches of snow for me in December.

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well that settles it.  >65 inches of snow for me in December.

lol, Was referring to the ATL look. But lock up a 65” Decie if you like. You can always adjust higher after the first snowstorm. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Tippy I was going by H5 look...not any text data.

ah yeah... i was thinking maybe you get special EPS derivatives giving your association with employer and junk.  cool -

 

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may very well be wrong about this but i'm suspicious there may yet be more of an important system evolving along the upper M/A /NE coast in D6 or 7.

seems ever since that popped into the fantasies of the models, they've been doing everything in their power to interfere and stop it, while still conserving the having it there. At D5 into 6 ... there is this rather discordant stretching of the heights from an outside slider on the west coast, clear across the country to the wave leaving the EC at in that time range.  There does not appear to be enough gradient to support that long of a wave length there... I wonder if that's a system that pops back into contention in a run or two. 

the gfs does something similar.  the handling in the eastern Pac appears to be the issue there (to me..) that outside slider should pop a more substantial ridge "if" it is allowed to dig sooner ... so it may in fact be just the Pac handling in general. 

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That’s a fabulous looking 500mb pattern...but it doesn’t mean it’s snowy necessarily(one would think that it would produce some real nice chances)...but to say it’s gonna be snowy at this lead is way premature imo.  

 

But we take FOR SURE...great looking set up as Ryan eluded too. 

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47 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a fabulous looking 500mb pattern...but it doesn’t mean it’s snowy necessarily(one would think that it would produce some real nice chances)...but to say it’s gonna be snowy at this lead is way premature imo.  

 

But we take FOR SURE...great looking set up as Ryan eluded too. 

Exactly--just like when  we can pull some snow out of a crappy pattern we can miss when things look favorable.  I think we just had a miss in a similarly fantastic-looking pattern last year, IIRC.

 

For now, though let's just accept there will be snow and lots of it. 

31.4/20

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Dec 1985 had a really good pattern that failed to produce big snows. But at least the snow that does fall usually ends up sticking around like that month. 

You would definitely favor snow in that pattern though. We will see. Having that pattern set in during the 2nd week of December is good timing too with respect to climo. 

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38 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Exactly--just like when  we can pull some snow out of a crappy pattern we can miss when things look favorable.  I think we just had a miss in a similarly fantastic-looking pattern last year, IIRC.

 

For now, though let's just accept there will be snow and lots of it. 

31.4/20

Share this with your buddies on here 

 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Share this with your buddies on here 

 

Not to be a little biatch but there's nothing guaranteed in that pattern, suppression depression can happen. EPS precip maps kind of indicate that. Need a nice vortmax.

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Snow would definitely be favored in that type of set up ... but that was exactly what I meant in my post when I said, it doesn’t necessarily have to be snowy.  Sure hope it is, but in the back of your mind you gotta be thinking there’s always the possibility of suppression.  Hope we stay on the good side of that idea.  

 

But id gamble with that look anytime...we certainly do “take.”    Bring it!!!  

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

99% of us would. Seems a few wouldn’t . That’s ok

Who are the few who wouldn’t?   I didn’t see anybody here say they Wouldn’t gamble with that look?  It doesn’t look a whole lot better than that..no doubt.

 

The few who you were mentioning, only pointed out some undeniable Facts..that’s all.  

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

99% of us would. Seems a few wouldn’t . That’s ok. There’s always pessimists 

Twisted sista, nobody said they would not take their chances with it but anyone saying it's a guaranteed snowy and stormy period fails to understand it isn't always. Is it a win if you get some ULL squalls and an inch covering? Ask Dec 89 how that all worked out. One storm on the 15th which actually screwed a lot. Look familiar?

figure14.gif

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Twisted sista, nobody said they would not take their chances with it but anyone saying it's a guaranteed snowy and stormy period fails to understand it isn't always. Is it a win if you get some ULL squalls and an inch covering? Ask Dec 89 how that all worked out. One storm on the 15th which actually screwed a lot. Look familiar?

figure14.gif

I don’t think I mentioned anyone by name . But you can see those that aren’t on board. And like I said.. that’s ok too 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think I mentioned anyone by name . But you can see those that aren’t on board. And like I said.. that’s ok too 

I didn't see anybody not on board but I guarantee you will be the first to jump off if there is even a hint of change

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I didn't see anybody not on board but I guarantee you will be the first to jump off if there is even a hint of change

this

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I didn't see anybody not on board but I guarantee you will be the first to jump off if there is even a hint of change

No that isn’t correct. I am all in on this . 100% invested and commited.

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