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George BM

Tracking Nate

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8 minutes ago, mappy said:

What are we expecting to happen? 

Breezy showers. And yes, that is a significant event considering the past month or so. They might close schools. At least Loudon or PW will anyways. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Breezy showers. And yes, that is a significant event considering the past month or so. They might close schools. At least Loudon or PW will anyways. 

:lol:

we do lame events so well. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Breezy showers. And yes, that is a significant event considering the past month or so. They might close schools. At least Loudon or PW will anyways. 

Fauquier is usually the first to close

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EPS track plot kinda sucks imo. We need the center to run the apps at the very least to have wind and/or severe potential. Very tight cluster west of the apps. We can't even do remnants right. lol. Props to the GFS/GEFS is the track ends up west like this. Hopefully the center misses the Yucatan. If the eventual track is west like consensus is currently showing, we need Nate to be as strong as possible. 

I'll laugh if get less than a half inch of rain out of this. 

 

AL16_2017100512_ECENS.png?35489094

 

 

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7 hours ago, mattie g said:

George sure does like him some new threads.

He better not sleep between Thanksgiving and Easter or someone might start a storm thread before he does.  

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11pm NHC track has Nate moving to our northwest at 96 hrs (8pm MON) and is in extreme W MD at that time... so maybe some severe chance Monday afternoon?

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We'll have clouds and some drizzle.

The autumn will remember.

Always go with persistence.

For the Mid Atlantic, the tropical systems have been bone dry. So, Nate will be no different, it will track well north, we'll have warm humid DRY weather.

The entire fall will be dry per weak La Nina. Weak La Ninas are drier than normal, warmer than normal. This Nate forecast is a no-brainer.

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9 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm liking the gfs track. Close to perfect honestly. Up i81 would be the ultimate but not a bad run for under 4 days out. 

Euro bumped east as well . A solid 2-3" west of i95.Gfs has max gusts to 25-30 ish and Euro as always has higher gusts in the 40s that won't verify but still. Chances are increasing for a nice breezy widespread rain event . And maybe tack on a slight chance at severe.

 EPS. mean precip made a significant jump as well.

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If Nate does make it solidly into hurricane strength territory, I think there will probably be sporadic tree damage on the eastern side of the center throughout much of its path inland because of its fast forward speed. That helps not just in shortening the time over land, but also in enhancing the "gustiness" of the winds themselves. 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Link saved!  Much appreciated..Yes, very nice track that is in line with other globals. At least we are in the game for something more interesting than just a rainy day...Pregame tropical training is the key and where that sets up will almost be a nowcasting situation..

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Link saved!  Much appreciated..Yes, very nice track that is in line with other globals. At least we are in the game for something more interesting than just a rainy day...Pregame tropical training is the key and where that sets up will almost be a nowcasting situation..

Yep..

If decent track continues and Nate is a Hurricane at landfall and  with forward speed like gymen.spoke of there Should be some fun nowcasting and a few surprises as always the case with a tropical system.

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20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep..

If decent track continues and Nate is a Hurricane at landfall and  with forward speed like gymen.spoke of there Should be some fun nowcasting and a few surprises as always the case with a tropical system.

The storm evolution through the gulf looks unbalanced. I'm sure someone with better knowledge can answer this far better than me but the west side of the storm never fully develops so it's lopsided on the east side. Probably has to do with the strong steering winds in the upper levels. To get into good winds we need a close pass to the west it seems. Stronger winds on all guidance after landfall are tight to the center and on the right side only. 

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0z EPS is right in the pocket with the hurr's and GEFS. We wasted an ungodly amount of time looking at tropical this season and haven't even gotten more than a sprinkle. I suppose this is some sort of payback. Won't be high impact or anything but far better than blanking out with every single storm. 

AL16_2017100600_ECENS.png?35489094

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The 06z NAM would be the ideal weenie solution.   The arrival of Nate would be delayed here until Monday afternoon, and we would heat into the 80s before the strong wind fields and lift arrive.     The more progressive solutions bring the remnants through much earlier, and we have no sfc-based instability to take advantage of the impressive wind fields above.    Of course, at this point, I'll just be happy with a good soaking.

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