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Tyler Penland

2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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KGSP 10am Update

  NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/     AS OF 1000 AM EST SUNDAY: STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE   CWFA IN RESPONSE TO IMPROVING UPGLIDE ON THE 280 K SFC THIS MORNING.   SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA METARS SUGGEST THE CLOUD DECK IS RATHER   SHALLOW ATTM, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME SPOTTY PRECIP SOUTH OF   I-20 ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THE 12Z NAM PERHAPS HAS BACKED OFF ITS   QPF RESPONSE A TAD FROM PREVIOUS RUN, BUT STILL SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT   PRECIP BREAKING OUT BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z, MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.   SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-FREEZING ACROSS THESE AREAS, SO   ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE OF THE WINTRY VARIETY. THE QUESTION   IS STILL WHETHER IT WILL BE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW,   DUE TO LACK OF ICE NUCLEI ACTIVATION. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST   SOUNDINGS, WHICH LOOK A LITTLE DEEPER IN THE SATURATED LAYER THAN   THE 12Z RAOBS AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS, I THINK IT SHOULD START   OUT AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. THEN CAA WILL RAMP UP JUST AS FLOW VEERS   MORE WESTERLY AND CUTS OFF THE UPGLIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS   ALL WELL HANDLED IN THE GRIDS, SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.   IF PRECIP DOES START DEVELOPING, MAY NEED AN SPS OR EVEN A   SHORT-FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, IF FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOMES   WIDESPREAD. THIS IS STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. OTHERWISE,   TEMPS AND SKY COVER LOOK ON TRACK. IT WILL BE COLD, WITH TEMPS ABOUT   15-20 DEG BELOW NORMAL.    

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11 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Shiit has gone downhill in a hurry in Haywood and Buncombe county.  The roads are iced up very bad. Wrecks everywhere!

You got that right, this one caught everybody off guard. We haven't seen a region wide ice event here in WNC in a while.

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Talk about an overpeformer!!!! Solid 3 inches in jefferson, making the drive to Boone in about an hour, gonna see what that's like, not often we get one like this!!

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Fun day in terms of “surprise” snow. Called for flurries and ended up with a few inches. Couple those inches with sub zero weather and man it feels like winter. Enjoy fellas!

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Another NW trend like what just happened on the 12z NAM and WNC will be in business. If we get a phase just 6-12hrs sooner, most here would see at least a couple of inches.


.

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Just now, Hvward said:

Another NW trend like what just happened on the 12z NAM and WNC will be in business. If we get a phase just 6-12hrs sooner, most here would see at least a couple of inches.


.

I guess the Nam is everyone's new years gift. Talk about sudde massive changes. Anything is possible right now especially after what it did yesterday.

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In the scheme of things in the world, this doesn't matter. But, the airport is reporting 21. Looking at Rays, other Buncombe temps range between 14 to 17. That is a pretty big difference.

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really need that piece of energy in Kentucky to do a poof job real quick. That LP on Wednesday if modeled correctly by the NAM is a perfect spot for at least a small amount of snow, but if that piece of energy is there, no bueno.

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1 hour ago, ncjoaquin said:

In the scheme of things in the world, this doesn't matter. But, the airport is reporting 21. Looking at Rays, other Buncombe temps range between 14 to 17. That is a pretty big difference.

The airport temp is in a bad spot to really get a good reading for Buncombe county. 

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15 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The airport temp is in a bad spot to really get a good reading for Buncombe county. 

Agreed. It is in the southern most part of the county. Not very representative.

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Congratulations on all those who saw snow. We had a skiff this morning with a low of 4 degrees. It was pretty windy and dang cold. Yesterday was an absolute cluster. I have never driven on anything more dangerous and so slick in my entire life. Pretty much most of Buncombe county was a skating rink. The weather turned to crap in a matter of minutes and that's all it took.

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1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said:

Agreed. It is in the southern most part of the county. Not very representative.

Yeah I agree. Somewhere downtown would be better. The airport is in a flat low lying plan that is not well represented by the county weather. 

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31 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Congratulations on all those who saw snow. We had a skiff this morning with a low of 4 degrees. It was pretty windy and dang cold. Yesterday was an absolute cluster. I have never driven on anything more dangerous and so slick in my entire life. Pretty much most of Buncombe county was a skating rink. The weather turned to crap in a matter of minutes and that's all it took.

Thankfully, my kids got where they were going. My son was stuck on 26 for 2 hours.  I would imagine you are going below 0 tonight unless cloud cover keeps it from happening.

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