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NortheastPAWx

Tropical Storm Jose

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Recon finding pressures in the 940's


Indeed, 944mb. Much lower than the last advisory estimate of 957mb.

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Jose may have stronger winds than Irma right now. 146 kts. FL and 2 flagged SFMR readings around that number. Unflagged SFMRs seem to be close to the normal 10% reduction so something like 130 kts. is probably pretty realistic for intensity.

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3 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Jose may have stronger winds than Irma right now. 146 kts. FL and 2 flagged SFMR readings around that number. Unflagged SFMRs seem to be close to the normal 10% reduction so something like 130 kts. is probably pretty realistic for intensity.

Wow. Jose has really blown it's top. That's solid Cat 4 closing in on Cat 5. That would be a pretty intense RI period.

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ZCZC MIATCUAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1000 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS JOSE IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds in Jose have increased to near 150 mph (240
km/h), making Jose an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane.
This intensity change will be reflected in the upcoming 1100 AM
AST (1500 UTC) advisory.


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 56.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


NNNN

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I don't know what kinda feeding ground is out there in that part of the Atlantic but the storms are loving it. Very impressive for Jose to deepen like that seeing how Irma just went through there.

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Does anyone know if there have ever been simultaneous 150 mph hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin? I know there have been simultaneous category 4 hurricanes on two occasions prior to this one...most recently being Igor and Julia in 2010. But neither Igor nor Julia were as powerful as Irma and Jose. I suspect this is likely a first.

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17 hours ago, JC-CT said:
17 hours ago, Juliancolton said:
Amusing Jose track from one of the EPS individuals.

U4DEqHv.gif&key=eebcee1c0ab2886a26454cfbe6a96f6dfc3676e8fca800856ffaa5d0a1c9bda9
 

That would be awe inspiring

Only a bit more ridiculous than the loop Jeanne made in 04

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I understand Irma is bearing down on FL but kind of surprised how little attention this storm is getting... the intensification this thing is undergoing is nothing short of incredible. 

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2 minutes ago, Tibet said:

I understand Irma is bearing down on FL but kind of surprised how little attention this storm is getting... the intensification this thing is undergoing is nothing short of incredible. 

Some of us have been paying attention. Good break from all the weenies in the Irma thread. I said yesterday that Jose was about to go all beastly on us and ta daaaa... and I don't think it's done just yet. Looks very good on Satellite.

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2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

I can't imagine how people in the islands must feel. This storm might wipe what's left of Barbuda off the map...

But on the other hand if they're going to get hit maybe now is better than say a month or a year from now after the cleanup/recovery has begun? 

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Speculation on how/why Jose managed to become a Cat 4 while right behind Irma? I would have thought that "traditionally", we would not expect a Tropical System right behind another to develop into another strong one due to upwelling?

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4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Both are 150 as of last advisory, Irma still stronger pressure wise

yeah but Jose is on the upswing while Irma is licking her wounds and trying to recover some. Still awesome to see two near cat 5 storms out there. Sometimes you go several seasons without there being one cat 5.

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13 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

I can't imagine how people in the islands must feel. This storm might wipe what's left of Barbuda off the map...

I saw on twitter somewhere that the residents are trying to get the heck outta dodge. I guess living through one Cat 5 cane was enough.

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23 minutes ago, larrye said:

Speculation on how/why Jose managed to become a Cat 4 while right behind Irma? I would have thought that "traditionally", we would not expect a Tropical System right behind another to develop into another strong one due to upwelling?

 Jose is at least not as strong (yet) as Irma was. We might attribute that difference to prior upwelling from Irma.

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Just now, Kelathos said:

 Jose is at least not as strong (yet) as Irma was. We might attribute that difference to prior upwelling from Irma.

I think there's a lot more to it than this. First of all ... It's almost as strong ... a cat 4. Secondly, it was my understanding that up until now ... a tropical system was highly unlikely to strengthen (or even develop) when it is right behind another strong tropical system.

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Too early to say

The problem is, even is Jose doesn't get sheared apart by the outflow from Irma and the ULL over the NW atlantic, steering currents become very weak, and by that point it just waits to be picked up by the trough that eventually sweeps the remnants of Irma out.

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2 hours ago, Hazey said:

I don't know what kinda feeding ground is out there in that part of the Atlantic but the storms are loving it. Very impressive for Jose to deepen like that seeing how Irma just went through there.

 

43 minutes ago, larrye said:

Speculation on how/why Jose managed to become a Cat 4 while right behind Irma? I would have thought that "traditionally", we would not expect a Tropical System right behind another to develop into another strong one due to upwelling?

My understanding (limited) is that this is not all that unusual.  The first storm clears the way through the fronts, troughs, and windsheer, making it an easier path for the storm behind it.  

EDIT: What would be stunning would be Hurricane Lee forming on the heels of Jose and running up to a similar strength.  Will keep a close eye on the latest wave coming off of Africa.

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6 minutes ago, LawdogGRNJ said:

 

My understanding (limited) is that this is not all that unusual.  The first storm clears the way through the fronts, troughs, and windsheer, making it an easier path for the storm behind it.

Definitely not my understanding. My understanding is usually, the upwelling and outflow from the first storm prevents the second from strengthening ... and often ... prevents it from even developing tropical characteristics.

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14 minutes ago, larrye said:

Definitely not my understanding. My understanding is usually, the upwelling and outflow from the first storm prevents the second from strengthening ... and often ... prevents it from even developing tropical characteristics.

Distance is the key...they are more than 1000 miles apart. Almost the same distance between Katia and Irma.

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19 minutes ago, larrye said:

Definitely not my understanding. My understanding is usually, the upwelling and outflow from the first storm prevents the second from strengthening ... and often ... prevents it from even developing tropical characteristics.

That may depend upon how close the waves are then.  Looking at a Precipital water map, it doesn't look like Jose was close enough to have been affected by Irma, whereas the wave behind Jose is struggling.

 

latest72hrs.gif

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2 minutes ago, LawdogGRNJ said:

That may depend upon how close the waves are then.  Looking at a Precipital water map, it doesn't look like Jose was close enough to have been affected by Irma, whereas the wave behind Jose is struggling.

 

latest72hrs.gif

Perhaps. It just seems to me that even with a significant distance ... prior situations where a strong Tropical System has just traversed that same area don't usually lend themselves to development. I could be wrong. Would be interesting to hear from a Met.

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