Hazey Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 The NHC is suggesting that the environment will remain hostile and challenging for Jose to strengthen let alone maintain current hurricane status. It's been pretty tenacious thus far so we'll how things play out going forward. Might not be much of a storm regardless of future track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 GFS has a stronger Atlantic Ridge through 90 hours Jose is further west and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS has a stronger Atlantic Ridge through 90 hours Jose is further west and weaker Significantly stronger ridge at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Coming in closer to the coast on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Coming in closer to the coast on the GFS It's an impressive turn of events on the model. It will be interesting to see how things evolve on the GFS and ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Looks like a stall at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 It's the max beach erosion run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Meanwhile the GGEM moves faster and plays around with SNE days 5 to 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Meanwhile the GGEM moves faster and plays around with SNE days 5 to 7 GFS moves south after coming up the coast Weird run but a huge shift west by the CMC and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 The UKMET is no longer into Florida. No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Meh still nothing compelling here. EURO doesn't show much and it's the best model so I don't see anything happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Meh still nothing compelling here. EURO doesn't show much and it's the best model so I don't see anything happening here. Don't discount anything this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Meh still nothing compelling here. EURO doesn't show much and it's the best model so I don't see anything happening here.Euro is a shell of itself. When all. Other guidance is against it, you have to truly consider the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Jose wont bother the US. It'll loop around then head harmlessly out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Felix produced some tremendous surf during August 95. Long Island beaches were washed over and closed to swimming for almost 2 weeks. There was also some pretty severe beach erosion. Jose, if he gets close enough will probably do the same but hardly anyone will notice as the beach season is effectively over That was a month when we could have used a TC hit, one of our driest summer months on record and wildfires all over the tristate area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Meh still nothing compelling here. EURO doesn't show much and it's the best model so I don't see anything happening here. Guessing you didn't see 0z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Guessing you didn't see 0z lol I didn't either, I was busy sleeping lol- what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: I didn't either, I was busy sleeping lol- what happened? Ends up here in 10 days but takes a wild track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Just now, ineedsnow said: Ends up here in 10 days but takes a wild track Looks pretty weak though, is that a high end tropical storm it shows there or a Cat 1?......the weaker the storm is, the harder it'll be to predict where it's going to go (weak storms typically are less likely to get picked up by troughs and recurve.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Meh still nothing compelling here. EURO doesn't show much and it's the best model so I don't see anything happening here. Euro just shifted way west towards the other models. Hurricane models are now leaning left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro just shifted way west towards the other models. Hurricane models are now leaning left. So everything is shifting to the west? How strong though? And what timeframe are we talking about with respect to impacts- next Tuesday and beyond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 A guy on a Windows 95 machine at the Pakistan Meteorological Agency just drew an MS Paint of a sub-900 hurricane over NYC next week. Watches hoisted when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Clearly a big compromise overnight. The euro op and gfs op lost the idea of a quick "exit stage right", while the ukie backed away from its track towards Florida, and is much closer to the rest of guidance through 144 hr. That said, especially regarding the euro, I would have liked to see more of the compromise in the beginning of the run, versus the end. The respective operational runs for a graze/LF are incredibly tenuous, as is reflected on their ensembles which are still largely ots. I think the prospect of any LF remains dubious in this setup until/unless we gain significantly more longitude in the 0-96 hr timeframe. Although one thing to add to the reasons for why this can be "more than a fish even without landfall" --significant beach erosion, high winds on the coast and coastal flooding etc..--is the anomalous amount of high latitude blocking over the Northwest Atlantic. This aspect is still 8 days out so it's clearly highly uncertain, but it is currently being reflected on most guidance at this point, particularly the euro...so that's something to watch for as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 33 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: A guy on a Windows 95 machine at the Pakistan Meteorological Agency just drew an MS Paint of a sub-900 hurricane over NYC next week. Watches hoisted when? Was it JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Clearly a big compromise overnight. The euro op and gfs op lost the idea of a quick "exit stage right", while the ukie backed away from its track towards Florida, and is much closer to the rest of guidance through 144 hr. That said, especially regarding the euro, I would have liked to see more of the compromise in the beginning of the run, versus the end. The respective operational runs for a graze/LF are incredibly tenuous, as is reflected on their ensembles which are still largely ots. I think the prospect of any LF remains dubious in this setup until/unless we gain significantly more longitude in the 0-96 hr timeframe. Although one thing to add to the reasons for why this can be "more than a fish even without landfall" --significant beach erosion, high winds on the coast and coastal flooding etc..--is the anomalous amount of high latitude blocking over the Northwest Atlantic. This aspect is still 8 days out so it's clearly highly uncertain, but it is currently being reflected on most guidance at this point, particularly the euro...so that's something to watch for as well.. Looks like the storm will do two loops now- one where it is now and the other one closer to our latitude; we are talking about the 7-10 day period here when the ridge builds back in and either stalls the system or loops it back. This one looks like a north of Hatteras system vs what Irma was (south of Hatteras.) Is this still going to be a hurricane 7-10 days from now? It's barely one right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Equilibrium for about 10 days, clockwise loop and then perhaps counterclockwise loop. Central pressure looks to fluctuate between high end tropical storm and low end Cat 1 hurricane. Good surfing conditions somewhere on the east coast for gutsy folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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