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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But AN to much AN Novembers in years past have not yielded good winters in New England

Pretty sure it's an AN November. But I think most of the AN Novembers had crap patterns and crappy Pacific. Also, I think dissecting how November works out matters. Like, if we see a change later in November into Dec.....then who cares of Novie is AN. 

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Given the way things are going, and considering a La Nina, the -PNA is going to be a big pattern driver the next few weeks, and possibly this winter. But if there is a -EPO and the PV is located on the North American side of the globe, I think New England will see a near normal temperature regime throughout the winter with occasional arctic intrusions. I think the eastern based orientation of the ENSO this year will cause cold air to leak further east. I'm just tired of having no blocking and being on the other side of the gradient giving us torch temps and rain in December and January. The NAO looks to be on the neutral/negative side coming up and I suspect it will stay that way and will even average out negative for DJF.

All speculation, but I don't think things look terrible going forward

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November 1985 could end up being a good analog if that deep western trough hangs around for longer than a week or so. That month had a big -EPO ridge and a deep western trough with a ridge over the east...though as we went through the month, we had a lot of cold air bleed over the top, so the month actually finished near normal despite a pretty mild first half.

There was actually a snow/ice event on Thanksgiving that year.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is really cold stuff in SEA/PDX. Winter comes early there.

If it pans out...that's pretty classic for getting snow to the coast in that region. Get that trough almost retrograding back SW and the sfc low to the south of PDX to have the flow offshore.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

If it pans out...that's pretty classic for getting snow to the coast in that region. Get that trough almost retrograding back SW and the sfc low to the south of PDX to have the flow offshore.

Yep. Big ridge baking AK and cold sort of tucking SW there.  But hey..cold Canada overall so we continue to put some money in the bank.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Big ridge baking AK and cold sort of tucking SW there.  But hey..cold Canada overall so we continue to put some money in the bank.

I think this point can't be underestimated. The past few years southern Canada has baked. This year, quite the opposite (so far).

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

16-17 had a cold Canada?

Last year, Canada absolutely baked in November...though it did turn cold in December for at least central and western Canada. We got some of it at times and finished near normal for temps, but we couldn't prevent the cutters so it was hard to retain snow.

2014 was the last year we had a cold Canada in November.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last year, Canada absolutely baked in November...though it did turn cold in December for at least central and western Canada. We got some of it at times and finished near normal for temps, but we couldn't prevent the cutters so it was hard to retain snow.

2014 was the last year we had a cold Canada in November.

 

Talk dirty to me brother....

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12 hours ago, Powderboy413 said:

Given the way things are going, and considering a La Nina, the -PNA is going to be a big pattern driver the next few weeks, and possibly this winter. But if there is a -EPO and the PV is located on the North American side of the globe, I think New England will see a near normal temperature regime throughout the winter with occasional arctic intrusions. I think the eastern based orientation of the ENSO this year will cause cold air to leak further east. I'm just tired of having no blocking and being on the other side of the gradient giving us torch temps and rain in December and January. The NAO looks to be on the neutral/negative side coming up and I suspect it will stay that way and will even average out negative for DJF.

All speculation, but I don't think things look terrible going forward

PNA really doesn't mean much north of NYC.

Just keep the one-eyed piggie and its nasty PAC jet of a tail at bay.

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Just now, LurkerBoy said:

Any signs of BN/seasonable that doesn't last only 16 hours? If we could have a coolish 2nd half of Nov into New Years, I'd be happy. Feels like seasons in seasons is a thing of the past. 

It's Nina. Season in seasons will be from MSP-DEN and points W and N for the time being. Will get some shots, but nothing too crazy. 

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7 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Looks like more 70s this weekend. Any shot at #1 warmest fall? Really gross stuff. It feels nice on the skin but weighs on the mind for some strange reason. 

Any actual change look imminent or just rollercoaster AN like every fall the past 4 years?

70s?   :beer:

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15 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Hey I know I'm a :weenie: but I'd just like some :snowing: or even more :raining: instead of :sizzle:

 

70s look good Fri, Sat, Sun. Right? Or am I misreading the GFS? A nice weeklong stretch of BN would be gorgeous. 

I don't know what you are looking at. Maybe 70 there on Friday, but Sat and Sun are 40s-50s there.

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57 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Hey I know I'm a :weenie: but I'd just like some :snowing: or even more :raining: instead of :sizzle:

 

70s look good Fri, Sat, Sun. Right? Or am I misreading the GFS? A nice weeklong stretch of BN would be gorgeous. 

If you are seeing 70F on Sat/Sun you may need to go back to obeying your member name.

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