OSUmetstud Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Its between 65-85 knots from 1000mb to 850mb, so there are your hurricane force winds. How does that equal 80 kts sustained at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: that is about what I saw too, 85 knots is 100mph winds. That would destroy everything on Cape Cod with those type of winds as the trees are still full of leaves the colors have changed little since October began. This nor'easter could send Cape Cod into darkness for several days. New novel in the works.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: that is about what I saw too, 85 knots is 100mph winds. That would destroy everything on Cape Cod with those type of winds as the trees are still full of leaves the colors have changed little since October began. This nor'easter could send Cape Cod into darkness for several days. Yea but days and days away, the Euro maxes you out 50 sustained gust to 80, still a power punisher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: How does that equal 80 kts sustained at the surface? It doesn't...it's more like 50mph sustained on the GFS. There's def big gust potential on those soundings, but I'd probably ease off on the sustained wind talk for now on values that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: New novel in the works.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Sorry I misread the sustained winds of 80 knots, my bad. Didn't mean to get carried away. Anyways, this looks like more than just a nor'easter aided by a Caribbean disturbance. Just saying, wind storm I see coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It doesn't...it's more like 50mph sustained on the GFS. There's def big gust potential on those soundings, but I'd probably ease off on the sustained wind talk for now on values that high. Yeah sorry about that Will, I misread the GFS on coolwx,com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It doesn't...it's more like 50mph sustained on the GFS. There's def big gust potential on those soundings, but I'd probably ease off on the sustained wind talk for now on values that high. Its actually 72 mph sustained on the GFS depiction, why wouldn't anyone discuss what a model shows, no one is predicting shiat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Wow Steve, a major storm before winter gets started. This is just icing on the cake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Its actually 72 mph sustained on the GFS depiction, why wouldn't anyone discuss what a model shows, no one is predicting shiat The coolwx model sounding that he referenced shows 45 knots at the max....maybe there is some other site that shows more, but I haven't seen it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 The upper level jet associated with our Monday nor'easter looks to be generating winds around 140 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The coolwx model sounding that he referenced shows 45 knots at the max....maybe there is some other site that shows more, but I haven't seen it... There is a 65 knot wind barb at 975mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Will the wind field between 975-925mb shows 80-85 knot winds, that is what 1500 feet above the surface of the earth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: There is a 65 knot wind barb at 975mb Yes, that would show very high gust potential. But it is still different than sustained surface winds. The GFS has a brief pulse between 111-114 hours at CHH that may briefly get sustained winds close to 55-60 knots, but the model guidance doesn't go hourly that far out...at least not the guidance easily at my fingertips. There's probably some stuff you can download, but I'm not bothering given how far out it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It doesn't...it's more like 50mph sustained on the GFS. There's def big gust potential on those soundings, but I'd probably ease off on the sustained wind talk for now on values that high. Sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Wind gusts on Cape Cod could reach 115mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Will what do you look for in terms of the models for good gust potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The coolwx model sounding that he referenced shows 45 knots at the max....maybe there is some other site that shows more, but I haven't seen it... 2017 ing. Hour by hour one can think in between hours the GFS indeed has a strong sustained period, just showing what it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will what do you look for in terms of the models for good gust potential? You want to see big low level jet...preferably below 900-925mb and a weakening or non-existent inversion....that helps get that to the surface easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Yeah Will, that low level jet for Sunday night into Monday morning is over 85 knots at 925mb and I didn't see much of an inversion below that level of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Our Caribbean Low is developing a very noticeable spin in the Nicaragua region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Euro sustained wind and gust product performed great yesterday, nailed the high gusts at the coast near 50 and the elevation ones. Watch that product James on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro sustained wind and gust product performed great yesterday, nailed the high gusts at the coast near 50 and the elevation ones. Watch that product James on Saturday Agreed. Did much better with its more pedestrian wind depiction here than the GFS. That said, new Euro shows some 70-80 gusts back into western CT with the next one. Obviously not reading too much into it at this range, but happy to get the model tracking season kicked off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Euro is damaging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro is damaging Have to watch this one Kev, last one I busted your cayonnes about the over hype, this one has a lot more of my attention for now, lots of time to mull over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 EPS pretty wet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Have to watch this one Kev, last one I busted your cayonnes about the over hype, this one has a lot more of my attention for now, lots of time to mull over. Hopefully this one pans out. This would be big winds SNE big rains west of us with little rain SNE. EPS is west too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 I'm guessing the Euro is a bit too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm guessing the Euro is a bit too far west. Gefs agrees Hope it goes a little more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Gefs agrees Hope it goes a little more west Doesn't matter to me.....30mph or 50mph gusts...won't be able to descern a difference, or remember it a week later. Hopefully some drought relief, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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