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September Banter Thread

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm trying so damn hard to keep (some) people's feet planted to the ground, but I just can't. It hurts a little.

The bigger the weenie high, the larger the splatter stain at the bottom of the cliff. :( 

Hope so. Because the nightmare scenario which the gfs keeps showing is plainly horriffc to a degree that I don't think many on here really appreciate. 

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

That's something I'd love to try. I'd probably leave it as it is, especially since it's bottled, but if you want to mess around with it, you can add a touch of maltodextrin.

I'm going to leave it as is. I just served one to some friends (just small tasters) and it went I er really well.

If we can both make it to a get together, I'll bring one for you!

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olafminesaw

olafminesaw

Posted
Posted

A multi hour derecho would be more than a problem. Not to mention the disaster it would be down my way. At least I can stay with my parents and don't have to worry about my apartment if the worst case scenario plays out. But it won't. I won't believe it. Of course the little irrational man on my shoulder is telling me worst case scenario would be awesome.

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eurojosh

eurojosh

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

A multi hour derecho would be more than a problem. Not to mention the disaster it would be down my way. At least I can stay with my parents and don't have to worry about my apartment if the worst case scenario plays out. But it won't. I won't believe it. Of course the little irrational man on my shoulder is telling me worst case scenario would be awesome.

I think you speak for most of us. I'd send my wife and kid to a hotel in a built up area and ride it out among the trees in the safest part of the house. Who needs electricity for a couple of weeks, anyway?

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, mappy said:

Already got a list going in my head if what I'd need to get from the store midweek should Irma make a visit next weekend. No way in hell would I wait until Friday or Saturday to go to the store. Wednesday, Thursday at the very latest.

Starting to at least mentally run through options of where to ride out that kind of scenario. Won't be in my house at any rate, under the trees. 

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Bodhi Cove

Bodhi Cove

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, mappy said:

Already got a list going in my head if what I'd need to get from the store midweek should Irma make a visit next weekend. No way in hell would I wait until Friday or Saturday to go to the store. Wednesday, Thursday at the very latest.

Same here (water, extra propane tank, batteries and so on.) Thankfully, we don't have any substantial trees near the house. However, we have the Bay to worry about, as well as an 87 year old mother on the Eastern Shore in a house surrounded by 70 year old trees. 

While it's exciting to track Irma, I'm hoping she opts for a fishing trip.

 

 

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

What would your plan be? Hunkerdown? Evacuate?

We're safe in the lower level of my house. I have some big trees but even if one (or all) fell on my roof there's no way it would be dangerous. Worst case is we get wet. I have zero flood risk as well. My property drains awesome. 

I have a generator and a ton of camping gear. We actually have fun when the power goes out for multiple days. If some crazy solution comes where there would be 100+mph winds I'd consider driving everyone to CT and stay at my sister's.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

Nothing will happen especially west of 95.  At best it will be windy and rainy for a short time.  This weekend was supposed to be stormy with LWX mentioning a "winter like storm" in the discussion early in the week...it was a mostly cool/damp/drizzle event and tomorrow it will be 80.  I can count on one hand how many truly memorable events we have had in the past decade.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

I missed that reference.  Do you have a link?

I guess you missed that reference.  The word winter is used twice.   
000
FXUS61 KLWX 300801
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build over the area today. A cold front
will move south through the area Thursday night and stall south
of the area Friday. Remnants of Harvey are then expected to
track through our area Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The center of low pressure is now over 200 miles offshore,
although we are still feeling some effect - mainly cloud cover.
The clouds are beginning to break where there is a northwesterly
(downslope) wind component in north central MD, although may
may fill in a bit toward sunrise. Light fog and perhaps patchy
drizzle will be most likely west of the Blue Ridge.

Weak high pressure will build in behind the departing low
today, which should lead to further clearing. However, a trough
will develop over the Appalachians by this afternoon, which may
combine with some weak instability and the right rear quadrant
of the upper jet to produce widely scattered showers and perhaps
a storm. Guidance differs on how far east this activity will
make it after sunset, so the slight chance POPs to just east of
US 15 this evening may need to be revisited. Highs will reach
the mid 70s to around 80.

Beyond the showers in the evening, the only other concern for
tonight would be patchy fog given sufficient clearing. Lows will
be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be squeezed out on Thursday by a cold front
approaching from the north and the remnants of Harvey moving
into the Tennessee Valley. However, most of the day should be
dry. By mid to late afternoon, there could be two foci for
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm (instability will be weak):
the cold front dropping south from PA, and a surface trough
across central VA. Overall moisture will be limited to, so would
expected scattered coverage at best. Highs should reach the
lower to mid 80s before the front arrives.

The front will be pushed south of the area Thursday night by
strong high pressure over the Great Lakes. As has been the
question for several days now, attention will turn to how
quickly moisture advection arrives from the remnants of Harvey.
A faster solution is becoming increasingly likely; however the
moisture will be fighting against dry air being advected from
the high to the north. The chance of rain may stay confined to
central VA on Friday, but a good overrunning setup with a
southerly low level jet over low level easterly flow will set up
by Friday night. Have made an incremental change to POPs with
the forecast, but if the trend holds, a period of widespread
rain will occur, interspersed with drizzle if drying occurs
aloft. At this time, instability and higher (>1.5 inches)
precipitable water appears to stay south of the area, which will
limit a heavy rain threat, although some totals over an inch
are possible.

The airmass was already forecast to be cool on Friday with the
Canadian high, but if thick clouds and any rain develops (i.e.,
reinforcing a cold air damming setup), it will likely be another
day where temperatures fail to make it out of the 60s. Have
nudged the forecast in this direction.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
While Harvey`s remnants may still have some tropical
characteristics, the model depiction on both the GFS and ECMWF
of the system`s progression through our region is downright
winter-like. Strong wedging will be in place east of the
Appalachians as the system moves northeast from the Gulf, but
the primary low is expected to head west of our region into the
Ohio Valley. However, in a very winter-esque scenario, upper-
level energy appears to allow the energy to transfer to a new
low which guidance depicts developing near or over Virginia,
which then heads east-northeast out to sea as an upper level
trough pushes the system away on Sunday. There remain
differences, including the ECMWF`s depiction of the secondary
low remaining weak, but certainly the overall theme is the
same...a cool, wet day looks likely Saturday as the remnants
move through. As is often the case both with tropical systems
transitioning to non-tropical, and your average winter storm, a
great deal of uncertainty remains regarding just where the
heaviest rain will fall, but certainly some areas may end up
prematurely dry-slotted while others get some decent banding and
come out relative `winners` in the contest of biggest rainfall.
Latest guidance would suggest heaviest rains stays southeast,
closer to the secondary low and possible convection near the
surface front, but its hard to have confidence in that just yet.
With most of the region in the CAA wedge, temps will be chilly,
with 60s likely for highs, but a few spots near the surface
front might break out into the 70s.

Moisture may linger Sunday, but overall it should be a day of
improvement as Harvey`s remnants are shunted northeast of us and
high pressure gradually builds back in. Monday looks solidly dry
and pleasant with high pressure dominant. Tuesday may turn out
tranquil as well, but an approaching front may start to bring
showers or t-storms back into the region late in the day or at
night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A low cloud threat will persist through mid morning, although
it does seem that the low level moisture (IFR clouds) is trying
to scatter out. Afterward, VFR conditions are expected today and
tonight with scattered to broken cumulus. A weak trough may
produce scattered showers this afternoon and evening. MRB would
be most likely to be affected, with a much lower threat to the
east. Impacts would be minimal and have thus left out of the
TAFs.

VFR conditions on Thursday, with a cold front dropping
southward during the evening. There will be a wind shift to the
north and perhaps some isolated showers, though minimal impacts
are expected again. Moisture from the remnants of Harvey will
encroach on the area Friday into Friday night. Timing is
uncertain, but especially by the overnight hours there will be
increasing chances of rain and MVFR (or lower) clouds.

Sub-VFR likely with IFR possible at times Saturday into early
Sunday as Harvey`s remnants move through the region. Improving
conditions later Sunday as it moves away.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure continues to move offshore this morning. Winds
have been trending downward and do not anticipate any major
adjustments to the Small Craft Advisory. Weak high pressure from
late today through Thursday. Then a cold front drops south
Thursday evening with Small Craft conditions possible in its
wake. Winds may slacken some Friday with high pressure to the
north, but the gradient will increase Friday night as low
pressure begins to develop to our south. Small Craft conditions
could become possible in easterly flow.

SCA possible Saturday as Harvey`s remnants move through.
Winds likely to diminish as the system pulls away by Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies continue to decline this morning thanks to northerly
flow behind departing low. However, several days worth of
onshore flow has helped pile up water near the mouth of the bay,
so as one heads further south, anomalies increase. There may be
a sloshback of anomalies later on today or tonight, but right
now the only place forecast to see additional minor flooding is
St. Mary`s county, where an advisory continues through tonight.

Next concern may be Saturday as Harvey`s remnants move through.
Right now not expecting anything more than minor flooding with
it as it will be much weaker by that time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ533-
     534-537-541>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM
MARINE...ADS/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM
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