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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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Just in case people forgot, last year Matthew ended up tacking 10-20 miles further offshore than the models had even as close in as 12 hours out. That 10-20 miles ended up saving family of mine from the eyewall near Cape Canaveral. It could also be the difference here for Miami and surrounding areas. Just wanted to remind people even with the best model clustering these storms can still deviate some from the best forecasts. 

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27 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The eye has also significantly expanded in diameter--to 70 miles-- so areas 50 miles or so from the center could see the outer reaches of the eye wall...

Exactly.  Not your Charley or Andrew sized eye, so the ring of destructive winds around the eye will be quite large, besides the overall large hurricane force wind field.

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1 minute ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Just in case people forgot, last year Matthew ended up tacking 10-20 miles further offshore than the models had even as close in as 12 hours out. That 10-20 miles ended up saving family of mine from the eyewall near Cape Canaveral. It could also be the difference here for Miami and surrounding areas. Just wanted to remind people even with the best model clustering these storms can still deviate some from the best forecasts. 

You still in Cape Canaveral - I'm in Suntree/Viera!

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z GFS track is nearly identical to the 0z Euro.

 

gfs_mslp_uv10g_miami_9.thumb.png.2d76b2e915a9ce950a1dd9e30ceca1af.png

 

 

wow Marathon to Islamorada get pummeled in this run, i cant imagine what kind of devastation we would see there

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2017-09-08_120522.jpg

 

2017-09-08_120411.jpg

ERC cancel?  Looks like the inner eye has re-established.

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2 minutes ago, lwg8tr0514 said:

No need to panic anyone but also let's not go with the meme of some oh "Cat 1 winds nothing to worry about...building codes, etc".....  Anecdotal story 2004, my house was hit by Jeanne, a Cat 2-3 storm at the time, not in the eyewall.  I lost my roof, well didn't lose it, it was in the neighbors yard, my 60 foot pines, one broke off and went through the neighbors house. Literally through the house. I was without power for 2 weeks. I had 25k in damage to my house from a strong 2.  So some of you comfortably settled into your Dutch colonials in Long Island New York or suburban New Jersey need to be careful minimizing damage because the eye doesn't pass right overhead.

I'm assuming it was an invasive Australian pine.  Compared to the native trees they suck at handling wind.  So much roof damage in Charley from those trees getting cropped about 30' up with the entire top thrown as a missile.

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3 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

2017-09-08_120522.jpg

 

2017-09-08_120411.jpg

ERC cancel?  Looks like the inner eye has re-established.

Don't think it's a cancel, it's just finishing. It's been undergoing the ERC since last night.

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3 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said:

Don't think it's a cancel, it's just finishing. It's been undergoing the ERC since last night.

Yeah, think the OEW is what is taking over now... hard to tell without radar. 

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Potential large eye, large amount of real estate. Big area of Cat 3+ winds. This is a bigger hurricane than Dora or 1935 LD cyclone. Not the best place for a NW track at this point. Any mild deviating or wobble and Miami metro is in eastern wall or Naples is in western wall. Still uncertainty even within ECMWF and GFS trend as there is static positon at 48 hrs. As we close in on 24 hours out from S. Fl landfall, we're focusing less on model guidance for point of landfall and more on track plot and even those unforeseen wobbles. Hopefully models keep trending west for now (sorry, Key West).


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Not a cancel. It can take a considerable amount of time for the inertia of the IEW to dissipate. Don't forget, it was fairly large and at cat 5 speeds yesterday. We may see sporadic convection fire on its remnants for several hours to come and cloud up that eye. The new eyewall is about 40 miles wide (per last 3 VDM) and while it will probably contract some over the next day, that's going to make for a huge eyewall/core at landfall.

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3 minutes ago, rdcrds4 said:

Is it pretty safe to say the 12z Euro is going to be west also? if the GFS is a nudge west the Euro has always been west of the GFS so would it not make sense that the Euro is a pretty much given to me west yet?

No one model has nothing to do with the other. Unless there's some new information ingested the Euro won't necessarily change or follow any other solution

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5 minutes ago, jasons said:

Check out the verification against the 72-hr NHC forecast from Tuesday @11am. Once again, pretty spot on.

They've been excellent with Irma, huge credit to them for not rapidly shifting their track based on a couple of model runs.

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12 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Yeah, think the OEW is what is taking over now... hard to tell without radar. 

There are plenty of radar images available.  Courtesy of the Instituto de Meteorologia de la Rebublica de Cuba.

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif

Noon.gif.b6672cd85866da343ea7b0f171737995.gif

Edited to add:  Here's the link to the main page with a mosaic as well as the individual radars

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

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16 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

ERC cancel?  Looks like the inner eye has re-established.

I think we're just seeing the inner eye's last gasps.

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On 9/7/2017 at 11:27 AM, dbullsfan said:

local Met just said a fair chance Tampa area wouldnt even get any rain from Irma and just a litle wind, that seems like an insanely false sense of security still 3 days out. With a storm this big even with an east coast landfall the west coast will still feel affects correct?

I'm revisiting this issue, as it highlights a real problem when it comes to hazardous weather situations and also a great learning opportunity for many of the new members here or new site visitors.

Even with the available guidance at the time, the "forecaster" cited in the above message (not the member, but the forecaster) had very little understanding of the situation. The information provided by the forecaster did not reasonably reflect the magnitude of risk at the time the forecaster provided it to possibly hundreds of thousands of persons residing in and around the greater Tampa area.

The member correctly raised questions about the bad forecast. But whether all audience members or even most were skeptical is uncertain.

Based on looking at the guidance that was available at the time, it was clear then that the forecaster in question relied solely on a single run of a single model: the 9/7 0z GFS which showed 0.06" of rain for Tampa from 9/10 12z-9/11 12z. The ECMWF ( 9/7 0z run: 2.05"), the model that had been verifying best, provided a quite different outcome. The GEFS and EC Ensembles ruled out the kind of "all clear" type message provided by the forecaster in question. In short, the forecaster was either unaware of the actual risk or, worse, dismissed it.

Overall lesson: Relying on a single piece of evidence can be dangerous. As a single piece of evidence may not be representative of the likely outcomes, relying on it courts error. In high impact situations such as the threat posed by a powerful hurricane, doing so is not just bad practice, it is extremely reckless.

24 hours later, the danger of such bad practice has been illustrated quite vividly by the guidance. Last night's 0z run of the ECMWF (5.83" rain and 80 mph-90 mph gusts) and today's 12z run of the GFS (3.87" rain and 80 mph-90 mph gusts) highlight the futility of relying on a single run. Had the forecaster looked at a broader range of guidance, especially the better-verifying guidance, a more reasonable idea that Tampa could face some potentially significant impacts from Irma could have been provided.

 

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17 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

Lets not forget Barbuda. God help those people If Jose doesn't stay far enough north. I can't image back to back major hurricanes. 

(I've read second-handedly that they are trying to evacuate 'everyone' from the island ahead of time, but with the complete clusterf*ck that is online 'news' in 2017, I can't find you a source I trust that doesn't have a paywall/adblock-whining popup.)

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Just now, LandofLincoln said:

Sorry to get off topic, but can anyone make that into a GIF that I can send on my phone? Trying to explain this to a friend, and it'd be easier if I could send it through a photo GIF.

Just send them the twitter link, unless they're on a very weird platform it should be animate-able for them.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/906191751613952000

 

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21 minutes ago, rdcrds4 said:

Is it pretty safe to say the 12z Euro is going to be west also? if the GFS is a nudge west the Euro has always been west of the GFS so would it not make sense that the Euro is a pretty much given to me west yet?

No.

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fwiw, I went back and looked at the Miami (MIA) obs from Hurricane Andrew, and it looks like they had about 5 hours of gusts 75+ mph with the peak gust being 115 mph, at least on the hourly obs.  Just to give an idea of the difference in duration between that and what's possible with Irma.

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5 minutes ago, thess said:

(I've read second-handedly that they are trying to evacuate 'everyone' from the island ahead of time, but with the complete clusterf*ck that is online 'news' in 2017, I can't find you a source I trust that doesn't have a paywall/adblock-whining popup.)

Here's the Prime Minister saying they have a mandatory evacuation of the entire island - 

More from Barbuda on twitter account of BBC reporter on the ground there. https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker

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The eye is currently just shy of 1 degree of longitude wide -- or almost the entire width of the southern tip of Florida. To put things in perspective, that is. Worst winds are likely to be in a band about 20 miles in thickness around that (little wider on the right and a little thinner on the left).

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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

The eye is currently just shy of 1 degree of longitude wide -- or almost the entire width of the southern tip of Florida. To put things in perspective, that is.

Great point. Hence, why even if the track has it landfalling on the western edge of the everglades, you could still be in the eyewall in Miami. 

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I am surprised the NHC isn't forecasting any weakening do to interaction with Cuba during the day tomorrow. Would think it would be knocked down 10-15 mph even without the eye going onshore.

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13 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

 

Good maybe we can end the last 10 pages of arguing about it ;)

Anyway I am waiting to see just how close it gets to Cuba and how much that impacts the structure. 

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12z Ukmet is north of the 0z run and it looks like it just scrapes the Cuban coast now, instead of fully getting eye into it.

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