Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,108
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Elarey7
    Newest Member
    Elarey7
    Joined

Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

What's your basis for this?  You've posted various flavors of this repeatedly today without any scientific reasoning.  Considering that the Euro smokes all other forecasters, human or quantitative, either back it up with sound reasoning or stop weenieing and polluting the threads.  

I've posted several times that I believe that the models overcorrected to the west, as recurvatures often occur faster and with more fervor as the forecast range decreases...especially with deep systems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TellicoWx said:

Seems like the new G4 data NHC was waiting for has tightened the track up some...GFS little further west, Euro so far North

Yeah, I don't know how either would be preferred over the other though, they both moved closer together so a compromise would be a better way of doing this forecast.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

What's your basis for this?  You've posted various flavors of this repeatedly today without any scientific reasoning.  Considering that the Euro smokes all other forecasters, human or quantitative, either back it up with sound reasoning or stop weenieing and polluting the threads.  

I trust 40/70's opinion on things..  If you're going after weenies there are a bunch of better candidates.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Extremely worrying runs for Miami and S/SE FL in general, especially with the extra data in these runs. Both major globals snap into fairly close agreement. Keep in mind, error bars are still decently large, but not the trend we would want to see to prevent massive damage. Note how the EC pretty much deepens and drastically expands the windfield through the entire slowdown and turn phase. This has been consistently forecast.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Right, except that's quantitatively proven to be wrong.  If you have a paper that establishes what you're saying, then post it, otherwise stop pulling **** out of your ass.

Whoa take it easy!  He's a respected poster who provided a link to a more comprehensive explanation of his thoughts a few pages back: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/historically-intense-hurricane-irma.html

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

I think it's really important to be confrontational when people read these forums to make critical decisions.  You are making up your theory and you have no rigorous basis for it.  It may feel fun to bet on a contrarian track in the hope that you pick right and can pretend you had some skill involved, but given that you might mislead someone for your little game, I urge you to reconsider.

 

if you have some science to discuss, then discuss it.  I doubt you do.

You obviously have a vested interest down there, so good luck.

Wish you the best.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

I think it's really important to be confrontational when people read these forums to make critical decisions.  You are making up your theory and you have no rigorous basis for it.  It may feel fun to bet on a contrarian track in the hope that you pick right and can pretend you had some skill involved, but given that you might mislead someone for your little game, I urge you to reconsider.

 

if you have some science to discuss, then discuss it.  I doubt you do.

If someone is reading these forums to make a critical decision, they have already made the wrong decision...

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Extremely worrying runs for Miami and S/SE FL in general, especially with the extra data in these runs. Both major globals snap into fairly close agreement. Keep in mind, error bars are still decently large, but not the trend we would want to see to prevent massive damage. Note how the EC pretty much deepens and drastically expands the windfield through the entire slowdown and turn phase. This has been consistently forecast.

 

The storm is so close it is scary, any further west and that eyewall runs right up the coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see the Matthew track FL hugger then OTS solutions are slowly starting to pop up again in more ensembles and other spaghetti plots. With these relatively large shifts East we are seeing on op models past 12-18 hrs is it safe to say a possible hugger then OTS solution is back on the table to some degree?

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you factored in climo, ensembles over all the models not just the Euro, and took into account how the Euro bias in the 5 to 8 day range seems to want to take systems to far south (especially in the winter) then the West track over Cuba was more of an outlier than it would seem. Models are a tool and you don't use one tool to complete a job.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...