jasons Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 My goodness what a nail biter. Went to bed with folks debating if the NAM was onto something, and wake-up to folks wondering if this goes to Fort Myers. I'm less confident today than I was yesterday. What a nail biter. Funny, I mentioned the potential major issues with the hi-rises last night and it was blown off by some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, jasons said: My goodness what a nail biter. Went to bed with folks debating if the NAM was onto something, and wake-up to folks wondering if this goes to Fort Myers. I'm less confident today than I was yesterday. What a nail biter. Funny, I mentioned the potential major issues with the hi-rises last night and it was blown off by some. I guess they forgot what Wilma did to the high rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Tropical models shift west too. Look out SW FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Euro has been quicker with NE trough and is now connecting the atlantic ridge to the lakes ridge...maybe a tick more west if that keeps up. Tight agreement with bulk of members over the keys now at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, Derecho! said: Even two days ago the national media was hammering away at Miami as absolute certain Ground Zero which I raised an eyebrow at. Concerning there isn't a single ECMWF ensemble member East of Miami. Have you been reading here at all last few days? Exact placement of the eye not critical, Miami still in very dire straits right now, being close if not in the RFQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenavp Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Very happy to wake up and see a relatively ragged core. Sometimes these massive systems just never seem to recover from such an internal disruption. Hoping the NHC was correct with its earlier forecasts of steady weakening up to landfall. A further west track and a high end cat 3 or low end cat 4 would alleviate so much potential devastation. And a track up the spine would also avoid significant damage to the west coast. Trying to make lemonade out of lemons here maybe, but the current trends are very favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said: A LF on west side Everglades NP is far better than a LF on the east side! Not good for Keys however, and Naples could now be looking at some serious wind issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, hazwoper said: A LF on west side Everglades NP is far better than a LF on the east side! Not good for Keys however, and Naples could now be looking at some serious wind issues. Yeah that has to much NNW component after landfall. If it came in there and went N or NNE it would avoid population centers for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro has been quicker with NE trough and is now connecting the atlantic ridge to the lakes ridge...maybe a tick more west if that keeps up. Tight agreement with bulk of members over the keys now at hour 60. If this trend continues this could end up being a west coast huger. Ala a West Coast Mathew. Terrible from Naples all the way to Tampa/St. Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, lwg8tr0514 said: Have you been reading here at all last few days? Exact placement of the eye not critical, Miami still in very dire straits right now, being close if not in the RFQ. Oh please; it was more concern for Tampa than declaring Miami out of the woods. There is an unfortunate history in Florida of people having weird geographic constructs. In Charley (a tiny storm, mind you) people in the landfall area (despite having adequate hurricane watches and warnings) had a rock solid belief that landfall would be in Tampa and they would be unaffected; which is what the national media hammered away on. It took a deviation of a few degrees to bring it into Port Charlotte. This is still perceived by the public as some sort of massive, unprecedented forecast error which actually isn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Seminole said: If this trend continues this could end up being a west coast huger. Ala a West Coast Mathew. Terrible from Naples all the way to Tampa/St. Pete Actually far worse for the west coast of Fla vs what Matthew was for the east coast of Fla- for two reasons. 1) west coast of Fla will be exposed to the RFQ if the west trend continues 2) the west coastline of Fla actually would slope towards Irma while the east coastline of Fla sloped away from Matthew. All of that has major surge implications (not to mention the geography of the basin in that region makes it much more vulnerable to surge than the east coast of Fla.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Last pass shows FL winds coming back up. Pressure is steady, but the p-min is broad. Still a bit of an IEW max there, so it's not totally dead yet (IR confirms this). Eye temp is back up to 20-21C at flight level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Looks like the ERC is finally finishing up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 More pronounced jog to the NW on the last couple of frames. That is probably just a blip within the general WNW track. Looks like she sucked in some dry air but has handled it well. Outflow looks really good all the way around, but the core still needs some work. SSTs are very favorable, but interaction with Cuba could offset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The hurricane models show a different evolution than the Euro too. They don't really have it near Cuba, it just takes more of a NNW motion late in the track vs taking the strong west motion today into tonight so it may not weaken as much near Cuba on their track vs the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Radar out of Cuba also confirms. Still a bit of a ragged IEW, but that probably will diminish soon. http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Looks like the ERC is finally finishing up... Yeah will probably be done in a few hours. Max SFC winds down quite a bit at the moment, roughly 115 kts. We'll see if that holds when the ERC is done or if it begins to climb again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: More pronounced jog to the NW on the last couple of frames. That is probably just a blip within the general WNW track. Looks like she sucked in some dry air but has handled it well. Outflow looks really good all the way around, but the core still needs some work. SSTs are very favorable, but interaction with Cuba could offset. I see that too. If that last a few more frames.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 If this trend continues this could end up being a west coast huger. Ala a West Coast Mathew. Terrible from Naples all the way to Tampa/St. Pete The trend has been for narrowing down the possible landfall within the expected area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: More pronounced jog to the NW on the last couple of frames. That is probably just a blip within the general WNW track. Looks like she sucked in some dry air but has handled it well. Outflow looks really good all the way around, but the core still needs some work. SSTs are very favorable, but interaction with Cuba could offset. There's some data to suggest that it'll avoid cuba, despite the Euro's better handle on this storm I really wouldn't be surprised if it manages to stay far enough away from Cuba to prevent significant disruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 32 minutes ago, hazwoper said: You evacuate due to the possibility of a major hitting your area, not because it is certain. By the time it is certain, it is too late and many are now in harms way. This has been the way it has gone for years. Silly comment. Those folks know it is an abundance of caution. You have a lot of faith in the average person's understanding of the cone. No matter what, Miami will get bad stuff no doubt. The storm is huge. Just saying a big shift west means the perception on the ground will be less, and folks will say in future storms they survived a major so it's not that bad when one comes that hits them in the core directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, Derecho! said: Oh please; it was more concern for Tampa than declaring Miami out of the woods. There is an unfortunate history in Florida of people having weird geographic constructs. In Charley (a tiny storm, mind you) people in the landfall area (despite having adequate hurricane watches and warnings) had a rock solid belief that landfall would be in Tampa and they would be unaffected; which is what the national media hammered away on. It took a deviation of a few degrees to bring it into Port Charlotte. This is still perceived by the public as some sort of massive, unprecedented forecast error which actually isn't true. The NHC is still looking at this being a big problem for the EC of Florida. I was watching WPLG in Miami this am and guy from the NHC, they are discounting a serious jog west at this point like cutting across the Keys, like the 1935 no name, and this being a GOM storm. The guy was very, VERY, VERY concerned about SE Florida population centers and less so about this being a problem for Tampa at this point. I like that NHC is not as reactive as some here, getting twitchy at every model run or thing they see on the IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 10 minutes ago, Seminole said: If this trend continues this could end up being a west coast huger. Ala a West Coast Mathew. Terrible from Naples all the way to Tampa/St. Pete The trend has been for narrowing down the possible landfall within the expected area. Gulf coast huger is still in the 'expected area'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, DCAlexandria said: I see that too. If that last a few more frames.... I don't know if that will have great implications for the eventual track, though I suppose it would slightly favor the more east solutions. But more importantly, it could keep it far enough away from Cuba to mitigate any land effects on the circulation. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, lwg8tr0514 said: The NHC is still looking at this being a big problem for the EC of Florida. I was watching WPLG in Miami this am and guy from the NHC, they are discounting a serious jog west at this point like cutting across the Keys, like the 1935 no name, and this being a GOM storm. The guy was very, VERY, VERY concerned about SE Florida population centers and less so about this being a problem for Tampa at this point. I like that NHC is not as reactive as some here, getting twitchy at every model run or thing they see on the IR. I wouldn't ignore SW FL either. A bit of a mini pop center there. Can't ignore that last 24hrs+of west ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Gulf coast huger is still in the 'expected area'. Yeah. Just making the point that the track continuing to move west has the same likelihood of the track moving back east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenavp Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, lwg8tr0514 said: The NHC is still looking at this being a big problem for the EC of Florida. I was watching WPLG in Miami this am and guy from the NHC, they are discounting a serious jog west at this point like cutting across the Keys, like the 1935 no name, and this being a GOM storm. The guy was very, VERY, VERY concerned about SE Florida population centers and less so about this being a problem for Tampa at this point. I like that NHC is not as reactive as some here, getting twitchy at every model run or thing they see on the IR. Good for the mets for making sure viewers in Miami are taking this incredibly seriously. No point in talking up the westward shift in the models instilling a false sense of security in people. On the flip side, hopefully the mets in Tampa are telling their viewers about the westward shift and how they need to heed evacuation warnings. Whether these guys believe the Euro or not means nothing. Neither they nor the model control the storm's outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Morning MW pass also looking much improved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 This is starting to look like a significant NW jog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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