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downeastnc

Hurricane Irma

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I'm so hoping for an OTS solution to verify.   Still think we a shot, however slight.   Sister lives in West Palm.  I want nothing to do with this thing.   I have always told her I would come down and chase, but not this one.   Forget that!

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Whats funny about the NAM is the center is maybe 40-50 miles SW of its last run and the trough is basically in the same exact place...these shifts are all just noise the models struggle to be that precise and correct 12-24 hrs out in this type of setup much less 2-5 days....

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Pretty incredible.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.
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19 minutes ago, WXinCanton said:

I'm so hoping for an OTS solution to verify.   Still think we a shot, however slight.   Sister lives in West Palm.  I want nothing to do with this thing.   I have always told her I would come down and chase, but not this one.   Forget that!

Family in N Palm, want them to leave!

 

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7 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Pretty incredible.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.

Pretty incredible to say the least...and there is a decent chance it could go higher over the next several days.  Hard to believe we are having two back to back record smashing and history making hurricanes. Like with harvey, it's hard not watch this constantly all day because i know i'm watching something special...albeit terrifying.

 

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It was easier watching Harvey because though I know people who live in Houston and along the coast, it wasn't myself facing the possibility of gathering up the important things and bugging out.

 

I'm wondering where it goes from here, how low pressure/high winds can get before it restructures or some other factor brings numbers back down some and whether that happens before it starts encountering islands.

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7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Track looks like it's going West side of FL.

145233_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

That's subject to change especially if the guidance keeps trending further East then what they did on the 12Z model runs.

11L_tracks_00z.png

11L_tracks_12z.png

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7 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

It was easier watching Harvey because though I know people who live in Houston and along the coast, it wasn't myself facing the possibility of gathering up the important things and bugging out.

 

I'm wondering where it goes from here, how low pressure/high winds can get before it restructures or some other factor brings numbers back down some and whether that happens before it starts encountering islands.

I don't envy anyone along the coast who has to face these types of decisions. As i said yesterday, it's why i would never live anywhere near the coast. It sounds like pure hell..even if it misses you and you don't suffer a lot of damage.  At least if you are in sc, you should have a little time if by some chance it doesn't make landfall or weaken much in florida. Pretty much everywhere in florida right now has to make some very crucial decisions very soon and won't have much time to change their minds if they wait too late. 

btw, irma's brother jose has been officially been born at 11. 

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I don't envy anyone along the coast who has to face these types of decisions. As i said yesterday, it's why i would never live anywhere near the coast. It sounds like pure hell..even if it misses you and you don't suffer a lot of damage.  At least if you are in sc, you should have a little time if by some chance it doesn't make landfall or weaken much in florida. Pretty much everywhere in florida right now has to make some very crucial decisions very soon and won't have much time to change their minds if they wait too late. 

btw, irma's brother jose has been officially been born at 11. 

And there is another investigation in the GOM by the Yucatan...

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26 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I don't envy anyone along the coast who has to face these types of decisions. As i said yesterday, it's why i would never live anywhere near the coast. It sounds like pure hell..even if it misses you and you don't suffer a lot of damage.  At least if you are in sc, you should have a little time if by some chance it doesn't make landfall or weaken much in florida. Pretty much everywhere in florida right now has to make some very crucial decisions very soon and won't have much time to change their minds if they wait too late. 

btw, irma's brother jose has been officially been born at 11. 

My son and family lives on Sullivan's Island in SC. They already have their plan and acting on it. They will take the boats out of water and clear the outside as much as possible on Thursday. They are heading to Greenville on Friday-Sunday and see what happens.

By the way, just look at the satellite image to see the power of this storm. Might be the most Symmetrically perfect storm we have ever seen.

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19 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

My son and family lives on Sullivan's Island in SC. They already have their plan and acting on it. They will take the boats out of water and clear the outside as much as possible on Thursday. They are heading to Greenville on Friday-Sunday and see what happens.

By the way, just look at the satellite image to see the power of this storm. Might be the most Symmetrically perfect storm we have ever seen.

I'm in West Ashley, I'm getting more and more nervous. My first time on this board was last year during Mathew here we go again lol. 

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