NJwx85 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 0.14" I'll take it. Another day with measurable rain in what has been one of the wettest Summers I can recall here locally. FYI we have greater chance of impact from the wave behind 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 0.14" I'll take it. Another day with measurable rain in what has been one of the wettest Summers I can recall here locally. FYI we have greater chance of impact from the wave behind 91L. .10 here and the 7th driest summer at ISP since the early 60's. The 0z Euro and UKMET recurves the wave behind 91L way out near Bermuda. The upgraded GFS has had the lowest skill score of the models like Forky posted last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: .10 here and the 7th driest summer at ISP since the early 60's. The 0z Euro and UKMET recurves the wave behind 91L way out near Bermuda. The upgraded GFS has had the lowest skill score of the models like Forky posted last week. Glad I don't live there. In any event, it looks like if 91L develops it's going to take more of a Southern track, so I would give the wave behind it better odds at both development and being a threat to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Glad I don't live there. In any event, it looks like if 91L develops it's going to take more of a Southern track, so I would give the wave behind it better odds at both development and being a threat to land. Well..the EURO, UKMET, and even CMC recurve it OTS to our east. Notice only the GFS has been showing a further west track. After the upgrade, it's skill dropped way off like Forky posted last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Well..the EURO, UKMET, and even CMC recurve it OTS to our east. Notice only the GFS has been showing a further west track. After the upgrade, it's skill dropped way off like Forky posted last week. I'm not putting much stock in the track forecast this far out, although odds always favor re curve for a CV storm. I like the general idea that 91L becomes the "sacrificial lamb" and helps to moisten the atmosphere for the wave coming behind it. Shear also looks pretty awful along the future track of 91L and it looks like dry air has been increasing just to the Northeast, so again I think the wave behind it will have better odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm not putting much stock in the track forecast this far out, although odds always favor re curve for a CV storm. I like the general idea that 91L becomes the "sacrificial lamb" and helps to moisten the atmosphere for the wave coming behind it. Shear also looks pretty awful along the future track of 91L and it looks like dry air has been increasing just to the Northeast, so again I think the wave behind it will have better odds. All the ensembles weaken the STR over the Western Atlantic next week so any storm in the region will we a fish storm like Gert is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: All the ensembles weaken the STR over the Western Atlantic next week so any storm in the region will we a fish storm like Gert is. Well if 91L can get its act together like some of the modeling shows, the conditions in most of the Caribbean are favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 0.15 overnight. Which is basically nothing. I've been seeing water trucks irrigating the plant installations along NY-347 in Suffolk every other morning, not nearly enough rain these past couple of summers to help establish the new plantings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Another SE cooler onshore flow day with the strong -NAO pattern for August. We get a brief warm up with a more downslope flow tomorrow before the pattern returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another SE cooler onshore flow day with the strong -NAO pattern for August. We get a brief warm up with a more downslope flow tomorrow before the pattern returns. Man this pattern better be here for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 0.38" last night...These nickel and dime rain events this month have me at normal rainfall so far, two weeks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Experiencing just my second significant rain since July 23 .40" overnight and a now a downpour, NAM&HRRR were dry. 13zHRRR has nothing for SEPA how can it be this wrong. Newest 14ZHRR never got a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Warmest spots will have a few chances to hit 90 in the next week. The forecast calls for upper 80s tomorrow, so I could definitely see EWR hitting 90. However NAO to turn even more negative as we end August, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a very potent early fall-like front somewhere in late August to early September. I know LR CFS hinted towards this a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Warmest spots will have a few chances to hit 90 in the next week. The forecast calls for upper 80s tomorrow, so I could definitely see EWR hitting 90. However NAO to turn even more negative as we end August, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a very potent early fall-like front somewhere in late August to early September. I know LR CFS hinted towards this a few days ago. Upton's going low 90s for EWR tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 4 hours ago, bluewave said: .10 here and the 7th driest summer at ISP since the early 60's. The 0z Euro and UKMET recurves the wave behind 91L way out near Bermuda. The upgraded GFS has had the lowest skill score of the models like Forky posted last week. 0.49 here overnight. Must have been a heavier band to your north. 1.56 so far in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 This rain better get out of here soon. Headed to the Stadium tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 23 hours ago, forkyfork said: there's a chance for a sneaky PRE like feature tonight. a few of the meso models show it Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Deluge here...another busted forecast...how bad are the models 3-4 days out too...atrocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 The 12z GFS is back to developing 91L into Franklin, if correct the center would pass near St Lucia on Friday as a weak TS before entering the Eastern Caribbean. Most of the shear and dry air are further to the North, so that would be a great opportunity, especially considering how most of the warm waters of the Central and Eastern Caribbean have been untouched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Deluge here...another busted forecast...how bad are the models 3-4 days out too...atrocious 3 days ago this whole week looked sunny and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Upton's going low 90s for EWR tomorrow They're showing 91 for me, as well as the Park LGA and JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Warmest spots will have a few chances to hit 90 in the next week. The forecast calls for upper 80s tomorrow, so I could definitely see EWR hitting 90. However NAO to turn even more negative as we end August, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a very potent early fall-like front somewhere in late August to early September. I know LR CFS hinted towards this a few days ago. With the downslope flow tomorrow, parts of Long Island may make it to upper 80's to around 90. But it looks short-lived as the flow becomes more onshore thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Light rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 .33" in springfield last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 .60" with drizzle has been raining since 10am and 70F Continuing the theme of good chances busting and slim chances working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 Up to 0.51" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Been raining pretty good again last hour...up to 0.55" and 71 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z GFS is back to developing 91L into Franklin, if correct the center would pass near St Lucia on Friday as a weak TS before entering the Eastern Caribbean. Most of the shear and dry air are further to the North, so that would be a great opportunity, especially considering how most of the warm waters of the Central and Eastern Caribbean have been untouched. I have this feeling that this one breaks the major-less streak. Gert lost its chance at RI now looks to be a cat 1 for the remainder of its existence and thus not even a big surf producer. a decent rain band headed twords the island. Let's see how we screw it up this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 On 8/15/2017 at 1:18 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I have this feeling that this one breaks the major-less streak. Gert lost its chance at RI now looks to be a cat 1 for the remainder of its existence and thus not even a big surf producer. a decent rain band headed twords the island. Let's see how we screw it up this time I'm headed to Turks and Caicos on Saturday any luck this thing stays away?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: With the downslope flow tomorrow, parts of Long Island may make it to upper 80's to around 90. But it looks short-lived as the flow becomes more onshore thursday. I was wondering about that, because the local forecast for my area is calling for a high of 90 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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