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August 2017 Observations & Discussion Thread

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August looks to start off with temperatures around to maybe slightly above normal for this time of year with the chance of showers and thunderstorms going into the first full weekend of the month. Discuss.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the measurable weekend rain pattern that started in April will continue into August. Impressive cool shot heads for the Plains next weekend. So you can bet there will be convection ahead of the front in our area.

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_7.thumb.png.4f19b0952e0245a9810ff61b5a625399.png

Of course this will be the big severe outbreak now that I'm leaving the country for the week 

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9 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days eke out a +2degs.

The no major heat for this time of year theme continues with the trough centered just to our west.

 

eps_z500a_5d_noram_21.thumb.png.c77bf59219991633bdbfeefbc9f37b67.png

eps_z500a_5d_noram_41.thumb.png.d28154336d54fd6a2675b7077e1f8418.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Western Atl Ridge building west being hinted on some guidance Aug on/around Aug 7 as the coolest/trough is centered of over the mid west/GL

test8.gif

 

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11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Western Atl Ridge building west being hinted on some guidance Aug on/around Aug 7 as the coolest/trough is centered of over the mid west/GL

 

 

Nothing too extreme in the heat department for the first week of August. Next few days looks like upper 80's to low 90's. The weekend cold front should drop temps to the 80-85 range for a few days.

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_2.thumb.png.8bffbcd8b9ea285a73a62b1ec58fcf17.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_7.thumb.png.992c00332331b81c9112d4ca6f51ccf1.png

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Nothing too extreme in the heat department for the first week of August. Next few days looks like upper 80's to low 90's. The weekend cold front should drop temps to the 80-85 range for a few days.

 

 

It looks like a great stretch of weather after paying the piper 6 days the end of Jul.  One thing - getting a bi drier again here.

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Next 8 days barely a +1deg. In NYC.   Averages are starting to drop now.   Heat back by 8/10-11?

 

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41 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

It looks like a great stretch of weather after paying the piper 6 days the end of Jul.  One thing - getting a bi drier again here.

Yeah, getting drier here also. Noticed the models backed off on the convection potential with the weekend front. Looks like  scattered storms with some places maybe not seeing much rain.

 

20170725_ny_none.thumb.png.82dccae77a3b243a3ed324f5e3a39f7d.png

 

 

 

 

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NYC could hit 90 today...The summer so far is average...June averaged 72.0...JULY 76.8...if August ends up averaging 76.0 the summer will average 74.9...big jump in the summer average temperature from 1870-1929... it averaged near 72.9...the 1930's averaged 74.6...since 1930 the average is near 74.6...

Summer months...June/July/Aug...
Three month period from 6/1 - 8/31
decade...ave temp/precip...90+days100+
1870's.....73.2.....13.75".....101.....0.....
1880's.....72.4.....11.88".......81.....1.....
1890's.....73.3.....11.18".....138.....1.....
1900's.....73.3.....12.87".....101.....2.....
1910's.....72.7.....11.58".....115.....3.....
1920's.....72.6.....12.98".....128.....2.....
1930's.....74.6.....12.40".....189.....8.....
1940's.....74.2.....11.86".....202.....8.....90 degree days average 20.2...
1950's.....74.4.......9.86".....175...12.....
1960's.....74.2.....10.54".....181.....4.....
1970's.....74.6.....12.61".....183.....3.....
1980's.....75.0.....13.03".....195.....2.....
1990's.....75.0.....11.90".....197.....8.....
2000's.....74.3.....15.66".....123.....1.....
2010's.....76.1.....13.16".....143.....5.....2010-16.... with 11 days 90 or higher the 2010-17 90 degree days average is 19.2...
1870-
2009 ave 73.8.....12.29".....14.9....4.....
1980-
2009 ave 74.8.....13.53".....17.2....4.....

Precipitation is running near average so far...there are 11 days 90 or higher so far...no 100 degree days...yet...the 2010's will probably end up with the hottest summer decade...

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7 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

What's it look like for tomorrow and Thursday in regards to showers and storms?

areas N and W of NYC favored as noted by the 3K NAM

nam3km_apcpn_neus_20.png

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30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

areas N and W of NYC favored as noted by the 3K NAM

nam3km_apcpn_neus_20.png

Ok thanks that looks just a little farther north then me which is good...I have a doubleheader for softball playoffs tomorrow and a 9pm game Thursday.

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50 minutes ago, doncat said:

August starting off warm but nothing like 2006 when my station recorded a 100 degree high temp on each of the first three days!

Yeah, that was the last time we hit 100 in August. It was quite a streak back in the early 2000's with nothing since then.

Newark August 100 degree days since 2000:

2001...3

2002...1

2005...2

2006...3

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that was the last time we hit 100 in August. It was quite a streak back in the early 2000's with nothing since then.

Newark August 100 degree days since 2000:

2001...3

2002...1

2005...2

2006...3

 

2010 : 98  (8/31)
2011: 98 (8/1)
2012: 95 (8/12)
2013 91 (8/21)
2015: 93 (8/27, 8/31)
2016: 98 (8/13) , 97 (8/14)

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17 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2010 : 98  (8/31)
2011: 98 (8/1)
2012: 95 (8/12)
2013 91 (8/21)
2015: 93 (8/27, 8/31)
2016: 98 (8/13) , 97 (8/14)

Still no upper 90's heat showing up in the forecasts like we had the last 2 Augusts.

 

5980d8c2c3565_Screenshot2017-08-01at3_33_04PM.png.3f2025377c43223c05899d23d5dc772d.png

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, getting drier here also. Noticed the models backed off on the convection potential with the weekend front. Looks like  scattered storms with some places maybe not seeing much rain.

 

20170725_ny_none.thumb.png.82dccae77a3b243a3ed324f5e3a39f7d.png

 

 

 

 

I would extend that west. Even here in the city the soil moisture is gone. Had to start hand watering again on campus. Moving forward it looks very dry which is fairly typical along the coast. Water temps took a hit with the nor'easter that wasn't too.

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would extend that west. Even here in the city the soil moisture is gone. Had to start hand watering again on campus. Moving forward it looks very dry which is fairly typical along the coast. Water temps took a hit with the nor'easter that wasn't too.

need a stalled front or some sort of juicy cold front otherwise it's going to get really dry along the coast.  Grass is burning out quick here...only about .50 here in the last 2-3 weeks.

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It'll be difficult to get anything above low 90s in this pattern with fronts coming through every few days not allowing the WAR to build. Gfs and Euro in good agreement on this for the first 10 days of August. 

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93 here.   Looks like sea breeze has stopped temperatures at LaGuardia and Central Park but I still been rising  uptown.

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EWR Past Augsust's

 

2016: +4.1
2015: +2.9
2014:  -1.3
2013: -1.1
21012:  +1.8
2011: +1.1
2010: +1.9
2009: +1.4
2008: -1.7
2007: -0.5
2006: +1.5
2005: +4.6
2004:  -1.3
2003:  +1.8
2002: +2.1
2001: +3.2
2000: -2.4
 

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29 minutes ago, Cygnus X-1 said:

It's a bit out, but I hope we have a brilliant clear sky for the eclipse on the 21st!

Guaranteed to be mostly cloudy or overcast

I remember a partial eclipse when I was in school long ago, specifically I remember the overcast sky. It got darker like twilight for a short period of time and was immensely craptacular for everybody.

Catholic school so they wouldn't even let us outside to see the somewhat dimming sky lol

 

 

 

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