Tropical Season 2017

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wasn't 1935 under 800 mb?

882, at 878 Irma would be number 1 Tip was 870. That GFS track and intensity would be the first major ever in the Upper MA

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wasn't 1935 under 800 mb?

900?

[Typhoon Tip]

well...  not for not, that would achieve the deepest barometric pressure of any storm in Basin history since science and man came together and started taking note of such thing.

Wilma was several mb shallower ... Wilma was also a much smaller entity when she hit that depth; Irma there at D 7 is about twice her circumvallate.  The integrated energy of that beast would probably have to rival any storm in world's history.

Hell, even that Typhoon Tip that I borrowed for my moniker was 870 so ... getting to stone's throw of that - sheezus.  altho tip attained truly enormous size and would engulf this D 7 model depiction a couple times over.  however, local to climo in that part of the basin, i just wonder what the SD is for that modeled depth is - 

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Who?  Tip called you on your BS implicating him in that group when he was clearly talking NYC LF.  But who said we get crushed with a lower MA up to Chesapeake LF?

Only area crushed would be surge on the south coast, winds inland according to the 18 Z GFS soundings barely gust to 35

[ineedsnow]

Couple more days until we start to know but this could be the big one for someone

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well...  not for not, that would achieve the deepest barometric pressure of any storm in Basin history since science and man came together and started taking note of such thing.

Wilma was several mb shallower ... Wilma was also a much smaller entity when she hit that depth; Irma there at D 7 is about twice her circumvallate.  The integrated energy of that beast would probably have to rival any storm in world's history.

Hell, even that Typhoon Tip that I borrowed for my moniker was 870 so ... getting to stone's throw of that - sheezus.  altho tip attained truly enormous size and would engulf this D 7 model depiction a couple times over.  however, local to climo in that part of the basin, i just wonder what the SD is for that modeled depth is - 

Wilma was 882

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Only area crushed would be surge on the south coast, winds inland according to the 18 Z GFS soundings barely gust to 35

And even the surge would probably not be that much of a big deal so far away 

[Typhoon Tip]

If anyone wants to vet these further...by all means

Most intense Atlantic hurricanes

Rank  Hurricane Pressure

1  Wilma          2005  882     26.05

2  Gilbert          1988  888    26.23

3  "Labor Day"  1935  892    26.34

4  Rita              2005  895   26.43

5  Allen            1980   899   26.55

6  Camille        1969   900   26.58

7  Katrina         2005  902   26.64

Source: HURDAT[1]

If Irma gets to 878 ...she takes numero uno

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weathafella said:

And even the surge would probably not be that much of a big deal so far away 

Depending on I K E. A 878 is a wave making machine. I  wouldn't doubt there was a 3 to 5 foot surge and oh hey there is a full moon next week and tides are high all week.

[weathafella]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Depending on I K E. A 878 is a wave making machine. I  wouldn't doubt there was a 3 to 5 foot surge and oh hey there is a full moon next week and tides are high all week.

But that would not do much damage.  Unless a home is within 10 feet of the high tide line and don't codes prevent that?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weathafella said:

But that would not do much damage.  Unless a home is within 10 feet of the high tide line and don't codes prevent that?

Barrier islands will get it bad, new regulations are 14 feet high for any new construction but so many remain. Misquamicut had a 5 foot surge in Sandy and it was destroyed but winds were an issue for that. As modeled this aint no Sandy up here.

[wxeyeNH]

Going to end my Irma posts with one last one from Bryan Norcross.  I think he sums it up good...  Some excerpts...

The weather pattern that is expected to steer Irma when the storm is within striking distance of the East Coast is notoriously very difficult to forecast. This accounts for the constant changes in the long-range models. While a big dip in the jet stream is anticipated over the East, which will deflect Irma north, the future evolution of that dip is unknown. High pressure building across the Canada over the top of the dip makes the future steering very uncertain. Literally, anything is possible.

There is NO credible forecast that can tell us who will be threatened on the U.S. East Coast, if anybody. There are too many variables in play. For now, enjoy the weekend, and be sure you're ready to take action if necessary. We wouldn't expect a U.S. hurricane threat until the end of next week.

[78Blizzard]

Big difference @ h5 on Euro vs 18z GFS, so very understandable why the ots vs inland hit.  Atlantic ridge on GFS is bulging westward, while it is lifting out on Euro.  Also, ridge over MI on Euro @ 1026 mb vs ridge over Quebec on GFS @ 1031 mb.  North and east exits blocked on GFS.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090212&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=164

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090218&fh=186

[ineedsnow]

[bkviking]

Good stuff from Ryan: NE hurricane setups 

 

http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/new-england-hurricane-setups/

[Damage In Tolland]

Sammy!'

 

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Only area crushed would be surge on the south coast, winds inland according to the 18 Z GFS soundings barely gust to 35

 

[78Blizzard]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sammy!'

 

I saw only one ots track and that one was over the benchmark.  Quite the opposite of the EPS.  Let's see which model moves towards the other @ 00z.

[dendrite]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sammy!'

 

Notice those blue lines are way SW of the other colors. The blue lines are 18z. 

[78Blizzard]

Just now, dendrite said:

Notice those blue lines are way SW of the other colors. The blue lines are 18z. 

Quite the opposite of the earlier runs and the EPS tracks.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, bkviking said:

Good stuff from Ryan: NE hurricane setups 

 

http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/new-england-hurricane-setups/

Excellent notice no model shows a New England setup

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Notice those blue lines are way SW of the other colors. The blue lines are 18z. 

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

That ridge strength and position over Maritimes and New England will greatly determine the outcome of Irma's outcomes in the next 10 days

[78Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Excellent notice no model shows a New England setup

When Harvey degenerated into a tropical wave north of Columbia early on August 19, no model showed a Cat 4 hit in the Houston area and subsequent stall at 7 days out.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

When Harvey degenerated into a tropical wave north of Columbia early on August 19, no model showed a Cat 4 hit in the Houston area and subsequent stall at 7 days out.

 

Apples and oranges man

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Apples and oranges man

The point being that none of those Ryan setups were showing conditions 8 days out as we are dealing with now.

[Ginx snewx]

Wanna have some fun?

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37.65;-75.75;7&l=gust&t=20170911/09&m=gfs

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The point being that none of those Ryan setups were showing conditions 8 days out as we are dealing with now.

Upper levels in Harvey were extremely well modeled by the Euro

[Dan76]

122 highest i found 

[Hazey]

Wanna have some fun?

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37.65;-75.75;7&l=gust&t=20170911/09&m=gfs

That remotely accurate? Shows gusts in the 170's just before landfall.