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Jonger

May 2017 Discussion

343 posts in this topic

37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not sure about week 2, but the first week should average out cooler.

One week per ensembles, by week 2 we are back to normal especially the Central and Western parts of the subforum.

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7 hours ago, Jonger said:

Hard to say for sure.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_7.thumb.png.b2407762537e9569971a3a31d4607e32.png

Yeah the first week, like I said :lol: thanks for affirming my point.

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May's definitely looking like it will be overall train wreck, relatively speaking.

I guess after several top 10 warmest Mays since 2010 and finally seeing a decent April, it has to happen. 

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I'd rather have a below average pattern in May compared to April.  It has to be well below average to actually feel uncomfortable.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I'd rather have a below average pattern in May compared to April.  It has to be well below average to actually feel uncomfortable.

Yeah and below average Mays can still yield severe weather. 

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah and below average Mays can still yield severe weather. 

First enhanced in quite awhile for our area tomorrow, pretty excited. But I consider May a summer month, so take that away and we only have 3 months of summer left. =/

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All you have to do is loop a global model and you can tell it's not going to be a warm month in the east.

 

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So nice to look outside and not see the winds blowing from the northeast.  Also a little sun at times this morning.  The worst is over.  Past few days were about as awful as it can get around here for late April/early May.

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Very wet week ahead for Southern Ontario. WPC going with 3-4", GFS taking it a step further...

t7lGIzj.gif

zGY578V.png

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2 hours ago, Jonger said:

All you have to do is loop a global model and you can tell it's not going to be a warm month in the east.

 

All you have to do is loop an operational run of a global model and you will get an answer for the entire month because operational runs are rock solid and never change nor do patterns change over an entire month? Yeah, I will just give my reservations week to week based upon the models instead of just assuming continuation for the entire month based upon the first runs of the entire month.

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1 hour ago, harrisale said:

Very wet week ahead for Southern Ontario. WPC going with 3-4", GFS taking it a step further...

t7lGIzj.gif

zGY578V.png

It's already been really wet, and this would only make things worse.   The backyard is totally saturated, almost to the point of being a quasi-swamp.   This is going to get really ugly when the mosquitoes come out in full force.   

 

 

 

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models are trending stronger low and more NW with thursdays heavy rain

great....

 

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2 hours ago, harrisale said:

Very wet week ahead for Southern Ontario. WPC going with 3-4", GFS taking it a step further...

t7lGIzj.gif

zGY578V.png

Ugh, a couple GFS runs even had wet snow on the back side for Saturday. Just as the weather was starting to get nice... 

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33 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

models are trending stronger low and more NW with thursdays heavy rain

great....

 

Yep the 12z Euro jumped to match the GFS. Pretty good concensus there to be honest.

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18 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yep the 12z Euro jumped to match the GFS. Pretty good concensus there to be honest.

Yeah and less than 96 hours out. Conservation Authorities around here will need to start getting the word out about potential flooding in the next day or so. Probably been at least 5 years since we've seen this much precip over such a large area in southern ON. 

Lake Ontario levels are already quite high as well, with some shore flooding already occurring. 

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20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

First enhanced in quite awhile for our area tomorrow, pretty excited. But I consider May a summer month, so take that away and we only have 3 months of summer left. =/

That is an interesting way of thinking.  Without checking averages, frequency of temps above a certain threshold, etc. I would guess that September acts like more of a "summer" month than May.

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27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That is an interesting way of thinking.  Without checking averages, frequency of temps above a certain threshold, etc. I would guess that September acts like more of a "summer" month than May.

Agreed. I don't consider "summer" until Memorial Day. Anything nice earlier than that is a bonus. 

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This is a decent little sounding for Thursday evening:

rHe049c.png

It is for interior Washington state...

Not too often you see 3000 J/kg in the Pac NW

NAMNW_con_sbcape_078.png

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5 hours ago, harrisale said:

Yeah and less than 96 hours out. Conservation Authorities around here will need to start getting the word out about potential flooding in the next day or so. Probably been at least a decade since we've seen this much precip over such a large area in southern ON. 

Lake Ontario levels are already quite high as well, with some shore flooding already occurring. 

Theres a state of emergency for the Niagara County NY region. On this side, coastal towns are already starting to see minor damage and houses flooding. Aside from windswept storms I don't recall Lake Ontario ever being this high.

Do you foresee any serious flooding in Southern Ontario if the models come true? 

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Finally a good tstorm.

 

Nice wind storm.

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That is an interesting way of thinking.  Without checking averages, frequency of temps above a certain threshold, etc. I would guess that September acts like more of a "summer" month than May.

I was going reply the same thing, but decided against it because I thought people would figure that I'm nuts. I've always thought of May as a spring month and September as a summer month (although the last week of Sept. can sometimes be downright cool here).

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