tamarack Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: What are you looking over that goes out to the 20th ? You responded to a comment I made about 7 days from now - the 20th is 12 days away; half of month for all intents - I was referring to that. 16-day GFS, and yes, somewhat of a non sequitor response to your shorter-outlook post. Unfortunately, that model has only gotten worse, offering no better than mid 60s here thru 5/25. Hope they're way wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, tamarack said: 16-day GFS, and yes, somewhat of a non sequitor response to your shorter-outlook post. Unfortunately, that model has only gotten worse, offering no better than mid 60s here thru 5/25. Hope they're way wrong. yeah ...and another thing ... we should remember that sometimes these pattern changes can be "rushed in" ? ..so to speak - They may very well be valid, and pan out in one way shape form or another but, the models seem to latch onto background physical processes in the system and bring those to bear too quickly - they'll be right about the transition but it takes place later on. there's that too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro might give MWN like 2-3 feet of snow out of that storm, lol. Pow day on Tuckerman's? Higher ground near FVE got up to a foot on Mother's Day 1996 - accumulating snow right thru the daylight hours. Was on the 12th, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 23 minutes ago, tamarack said: Higher ground near FVE got up to a foot on Mother's Day 1996 - accumulating snow right thru the daylight hours. Was on the 12th, however. Wow, that is a really impressive system in 1996...that's some serious winter-esque cold thickness packing...in contrast to the ULL dynamic driven cooling we see on the current model guidance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Just spins for days as it rots to our south and southeast. That's not far from some decent flakeage on Monday morning even over SNE interior...prob won't play out like that, but that is a really deep ULL. [kevin]particularly higher elevations in Tolland county[/kevin] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow, that is a really impressive system in 1996...that's some serious winter-esque cold thickness packing...in contrast to the ULL dynamic driven cooling we see on the current model guidance: Jesus. That looks like the first week of April or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 What strikes me as remarkable about that synoptic evolution (as it is implied by the single frame...) is that the counter-point geopotential positive anomalies in the west are an anchored ridge exceeding 590 heights at the core ...more importantly, pooling off thickness well over 570 dm over a vast area of the SW. 850 mb are 20 to 30C ! That chart's set up exceeds the "normal" + PNAP couplet variance by probably a solid 20 decameters, which is sort of a secondary (delta) ...where the gradient is excessive. That's fascinating. Also, ...interestingly, excessive gradient plagued much our winter (to the extent of detriment), yet here we are with a cold unrelenting attack on New England... Maybe there's some kind of physical connection here (forcing) on hemispheric scales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Yeah... Will I see what you mean about the more dynamic nature versus lower level gradient evolution with our present ere coastal. It's also one reason why I caution that intensity. I was discussing that with Ryan the other day, that the models tend to over focus on the mid levels at this time of year, showing deeper surface responses in a challenged ambient baroclinic state. I think 1977 toted some cold down with it at least into the 850 mb levels - I recall looking up those charts once. It's just that I've seen countless 'big April bombs' in the past that ended up being weak surface expressions with a lot of cold pool garbage come time to verify. It'll be interesting to see what this one can muster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 All these doomsday all weekend heavy rain washouts lol. Come on folks. You know better. It's a run of the mill rain event ending Sunday morning. Good Lord at some of these posts today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: All these doomsday all weekend heavy rain washouts lol. Come on folks. You know better. It's a run of the mill rain event ending Sunday morning. Good Lord at some of these posts today .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably cool temperatures continue for the rest of the work week with a few spot showers at times, but the majority of this period will feature dry weather. The potential exists for a period of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds along the coastal plain late Saturday through Monday with a late-season Nor`Easter, track dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: All these doomsday all weekend heavy rain washouts lol. Come on folks. You know better. It's a run of the mill rain event ending Sunday morning. Good Lord at some of these posts today I'm actually rooting for you to be somehow, miraculously correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 9 hours ago, kdxken said: .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably cool temperatures continue for the rest of the work week with a few spot showers at times, but the majority of this period will feature dry weather. The potential exists for a period of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds along the coastal plain late Saturday through Monday with a late-season Nor`Easter, track dependent. bulk of the rain should overspread the region Sat afternoon/evening and continue into Sunday. Heaviest rain most likely Sat night into Sun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Weekend looks like ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weekend looks like ass. Spring in New England....gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Sometimes I wonder if there's a kind of 'reverse psychology' game people fiddle with in here really - when what they really want is for the weather to be gloomy. Firstly, over the years (certainly since Eastern defunct and the exodus of users ended up here...) the intents and purposes of this social media outlet have morphed from being a source for behind the scenes operational and/or theoretic Meteorological insight... to one that is a receptacle for how weather, or more importantly the prospect of certain weather types, affects one's mood. I'd even extend that some and say that it's down right therapeutic and/or enabling in some ways... Not saying it's right or wrong. But, if one goes out of their way to "speak the dialogue" of the science, and keep it strictly that way, there's a reason why it tends to either be ignored, or doesn't foster the same frequency/enthusiasm in replies if at all. Anyway, for some, cool and wet hard-ons this weekend are being hidden behind a barrage of '..Boy I hope the expected warm up doesn't turn out to be like the D9 coastal in the winter' - yeah, okay, that's how you really feel. But, thankfully, the latest trends are to move that along so you won't have to "suffer" that long. Ha... just bustin' balls but seriously - this weekend's coastal in the 00z guidance looks to be about half the residence time spent in the area, compared to what how it was modeled to evolve in those ultra slow mover ideas yesterday. It's still a solid 18 to 24 hours and smack dab centered on midriff of the weekend and is poor timing, understood. However, it moves along as is gone by late Sunday - or ending... But, see ...and this is why the ribbing above sort of strike me as having some truth to it... Why wasn't there as much enthusiasm for the Euro's blatant and demonstrative pattern change that was gleaming off the 00z runs? It wasn't like that was the first run that did something similar ...spanning that last 5 cycles... Actually, 3 of the 5 showed a -PNAP plausibility erupting. So it's not unprecedented... I guess no one either wants or cares for that huh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 I'm not sure I buy any pattern change soon. We'll see what 12z brings. I'm still sticking with th 20th. For now, I'm going to refrain from any pattern change until it gains more traction. We've seen the models knee jerk a lot in the 6-10 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sometimes I wonder if there's a kind of 'reverse psychology' game people fiddle with in here really - when what they really want is for the weather to be gloomy. Firstly, over the years (certainly since Eastern defunct and the exodus of users ended up here...) the intents and purposes of this social media outlet have morphed from being a source for behind the scenes operational and/or theoretic Meteorological insight... to one that is a receptacle for how weather, or more importantly the prospect of certain weather types, affects one's mood. I'd even extend that some and say that it's down right therapeutic and/or enabling in some ways... Not saying it's right or wrong. But, if one goes out of their way to "speak the dialogue" of the science, and keep it strictly that way, there's a reason why it tends to either be ignored, or doesn't foster the same frequency/enthusiasm in replies if at all. Anyway, for some, cool and wet hard-ons this weekend are being hidden behind a barrage of '..Boy I hope the expected warm up doesn't turn out to be like the D9 coastal in the winter' - yeah, okay, that's how you really feel. But, thankfully, the latest trends are to move that along so you won't have to "suffer" that long. Ha... just bustin' balls but seriously - this weekend's coastal in the 00z guidance looks to be about half the residence time spent in the area, compared to what how it was modeled to evolve in those ultra slow mover ideas yesterday. It's still a solid 18 to 24 hours and smack dab centered on midriff of the weekend and is poor timing, understood. However, it moves along as is gone by late Sunday - or ending... But, see ...and this is why the ribbing above sort of strike me as having some truth to it... Why wasn't there as much enthusiasm for the Euro's blatant and demonstrative pattern change that was gleaming off the 00z runs? It wasn't like that was the first run that did something similar ...spanning that last 5 cycles... Actually, 3 of the 5 showed a -PNAP plausibility erupting. So it's not unprecedented... I guess no one either wants or cares for that huh - The 00z Euro was much more progressive, but it was one run, and the GFS is sticking to its guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Also, the ensembles offer more consistency and I'd rather go by them vs op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 00z Euro was much more progressive, but it was one run, and the GFS is sticking to its guns. It's not one run - I made that point, specifically ... "...Actually, 3 of the 5 showed a -PNAP plausibility erupting..." Plus, it depends which ensemble mean: the GEFs blend (to me) looked like it was also about 6 to 12 hours faster with the total evolution/appeal of stalling that coastal system. It's also weaker than the Euro cluster... So, meh - that's a toss-up for me... these are clear enough but for some reason there is selective eliding of observable characteristics going on - it does make one want to wonder why people do that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's not one run - I made that point, specifically ... "...Actually, 3 of the 5 showed a -PNAP plausibility erupting..." Plus, it depends which ensemble mean: the GEFs blend (to me) looked like it was also about 6 to 12 hours faster with the total evolution/appeal of stalling that coastal system. It's also weaker than the Euro cluster... So, meh - that's a toss-up for me... these are clear enough but for some reason there is selective eliding of observable characteristics going on - it does make one want to wonder why people do that - I think we've seen too much flip flopping to have confidence in any particular evolution. I've noticed with the last few systems that the 00z runs seem to trend progressive while the 12z runs have trended slower so we'll have to see if the seesaw continues today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Also if you just wanted to compare the 00z GEFS mean to the 06z mean, the 06z was clearly wetter, which tells me that it most likely had fewer progressive members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 May...The new April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Yeah... those variations are within the "giga" motion noise, tho, that happens from run cycle to run cycle, ...always endemic to modeling a system that has a pretty strong component of quasi fractal behavior. In easier terms, they're not significant. Imho, the aspect that leaps out (or should) more obviously, is a signal prevalent across several runs-worth depicting eastern height rises in the 2nd half of the month. And the EPS has it, too... So I think what we're left with as of now: we have a low to midland coastal low - big deal. It's out of here in a day ..day and half, and then the pattern may very well be off to a new paradigm - a warmer one at that - by perhaps even before the 20th the way things look now. It could be wrong - sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Is tomorrow looking okay or is that crap too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 you know, even though we have been trapped under the wheel of ‘rhea, I don’t think it really has been that bad. A week ago it looked like we were going to have off and on rain, with cooler temps. Yes, the temps have been pretty chilly for this time of year, but aside from last weekend, i haven’t seen much rain. *yes, I also realize that this weekend is going to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: you know, even though we have been trapped under the wheel of ‘rhea, I don’t think it really has been that bad. A week ago it looked like we were going to have off and on rain, with cooler temps. Yes, the temps have been pretty chilly for this time of year, but aside from last weekend, i haven’t seen much rain. *yes, I also realize that this weekend is going to suck. Yeah this has been way way overhyped by the usual hyperbole folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 We've had a ton of rain. It's been terrible. At least we got out of the 40s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah this has been way way overhyped by the usual hyperbole folks Most actually said this wouldn't be a may 2005 repeat actually...that the result would likely not be that extreme. But this has been pretty much garbage...May 10th and we're polishing a 53F and mostly cloudy turd with a 40F rainstorm knocking on the door for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 I'd argue that this has been worse than May 05 so far up here. I think departures were a little greater in SNE than here though. Through the first 10 days of the month ORH and CON are running about 6F BN for max temps with more dreadful days to come. May 05 was near normal for precip too so it's not like we pulled off some kind of obscene 7-8" month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Most actually said this wouldn't be a may 2005 repeat actually...that the result would likely not be that extreme. But this has been pretty much garbage...May 10th and we're polishing a 53F and mostly cloudy turd with a 40F rainstorm knocking on the door for the weekend. Ha ha.. To say nothing of the fact that Kevin is like here * ....then, waaaaay over here * is the next guy most guilty of hyperbole on weather related social mediate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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