ORH_wxman Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 20 minutes ago, MarkO said: Heading up north to do some spring cleanup. Also hoping to see some snow mix in at higher elevations. I'm thinking there's a decent possibility some snow may accumulate above about 2500'. Thoughts? It's going to be very lift-dependent. Some of the guidance is keeping the best lift a bit east of that area, so we'll have to watch it. There's a really high chance of accumulating snow above 4k feet I think...for 2500 feet, I'd prob put the odds around 50/50 right now. It could just be a few mangled catpaws if we aren't cranking the mid-levels hard enough. There's some subtle differences in the guidance...the GFS looks better for NH and the ECMWF looks better for places like Sugarloaf-Jackman-Rangeley in terms of getting snow below 2500 feet. The Euro is the furthest east of all guidance, so I'd probably compromise back west a little on its solution. The Presidentials look like they'll def get some decent snow and prob Mahoosucs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's going to be very lift-dependent. Some of the guidance is keeping the best lift a bit east of that area, so we'll have to watch it. There's a really high chance of accumulating snow above 4k feet I think...for 2500 feet, I'd prob put the odds around 50/50 right now. It could just be a few mangled catpaws if we aren't cranking the mid-levels hard enough. There's some subtle differences in the guidance...the GFS looks better for NH and the ECMWF looks better for places like Sugarloaf-Jackman-Rangeley in terms of getting snow below 2500 feet. The Euro is the furthest east of all guidance, so I'd probably compromise back west a little on its solution. The Presidentials look like they'll def get some decent snow and prob Mahoosucs. I mean it's real close. Forecast soundings are all playing around with that 2500-4000 foot layer. 12z NAM actually has snow to the valley floor at HIE (12.5" of it). But from 09-15z Sunday it is ripping 20-30 ubars through the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 You know what this going to look like in the wee hour of Sunday morning on radar? Snow ... Yup. That's because the melt line aloft is going to be so close to the same elevation of the rad signal the reflectivity will still be smooth. Anyway, I'm impressed with the rapidity the switch (appears to) finally flips this next week. Monday probably murks out but Tuesday is the transition day. Wednesday looks like about 82 in full sun to me. OH I'm sure the MOS argues against as usual... But it could be borderline 'hot' on Thursday before (IF) we back door for a day and half. Typical for early heat around here... We get a day ..then it's interrupted while the Labrador current charges taxes on the synoptics, then once we've paid the bill it turns the lights back on - ...meanwhile, PHL gets it's power entirely comped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 I'm surprised Kevin didn't post the SE shift on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm surprised Kevin didn't post the SE shift on the 18z GFS. No need to. Everyone except Will and NJwx expected it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No need to. Everyone except Will and NJwx expected it You make it sound like it was an ultra dry run. Boston still gets a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 13, 2017 Author Share Posted May 13, 2017 22 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm surprised Kevin didn't post the SE shift on the 18z GFS. Ii'm surprise dhe didn't hype the damaging wind gusts on the back side, on the Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You make it sound like it was an ultra dry run. Boston still gets a lot of rain. Meh, passing showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 Kevin is now actually working instead of going on workdays to make beer runs and fertilize. He's having a tough time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 RGEM with another tick E heaviest precip. If this were Feb we would be saying congrats E MA. I'm hoping to salvage a gloomy vs rainy Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin is now actually working instead of going on workdays to make beer runs and fertilize. He's having a tough time. Granted I work for a brewery but I couldn't imagine driving far to get beer or waiting in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Granted I work for a brewery but I couldn't imagine driving far to get beer or waiting in line. You should've seen me running around Chicago last weekend trying to find Zombie Dust. Struck out (as it's apparently a short shelf life on delivery day) but did try Three Floyds Gumballhead, Yum Yum, and Alpha King. Good stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 5 hours ago, OceanStWx said: You should've seen me running around Chicago last weekend trying to find Zombie Dust. Struck out (as it's apparently a short shelf life on delivery day) but did try Three Floyds Gumballhead, Yum Yum, and Alpha King. Good stuff. I've had it a couple times. It's mediocre. You're not missing much. Not sure what Scooter is talking about. 3 runs to Treehouse last 3 weeks, and friends getting me Trailblazer 2 weeks ago and this coming week. and heading to Canton Men Day weekend for soccer tourney so will be hitting Trillium daily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 Man, that is sooo close. I know I know - that horse has been beaten good and dead... But still, there are guidance' down to 0 C at all of like 2,000 feet over the top of Boston with moderate to heavy QPF. The Euro was warmish in the entry hours to this weekend's misery, but as the N-stream (probably the real last gasp during last rites on winter (you have to remember ...snow doesn't mean winter ) dynamics infuse, the system does manufacture entangled 850 mb cold to the tune of 0 or even -1 C over eastern and central NE for a few hours early-mid day Sunday. It certainly does offer potential for white in Whites' , if elevation hasn't already been covered (heh, who am I kidding..). But, I wouldn't be surprised ... if you were crazy enough to stand atop the the bald exposure of Manadnock I bet you'd have chutes and paws filling the air there for a short period as the core of the cold is mixing into the back edge of UVM. Then, for me .. equally impressive as this look is for this time of year could be the transition between Monday and Tuesday of this week. Wow. If Euro synoptic evolution worked out ... it's like 40 to 48 with wind whisked mist through much of the day on Monday, and 24 hours later, the model depicts light off-shore wind, low cloud level RH (signaling sun), and 850 mb temperatures all the way to +9 C (up 10 or 9 from the previous day). Those numbers alone should push the upper 70s over much of the area. Combined with high May sun? It would be like boarding a commercial airliner and flying to a completely different region of the planet, stepping off the 'plane and going, whoa! That sets the stage for a week that will most likely be above normal... Believe it or not.. .despite the general flavor of May so far, it's not too late to have the month recover and even be above normal - I just think that would funny if so. Steal enough time to leave a bad taste in everyone's memory while lying about it in the end numbers - that's called a crime in human parlance. haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I've had it a couple times. It's mediocre. You're not missing much. Not sure what Scooter is talking about. 3 runs to Treehouse last 3 weeks, and friends getting me Trailblazer 2 weeks ago and this coming week. and heading to Canton Men Day weekend for soccer tourney so will be hitting Trillium daily. Are they done building their brewery in Charlton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 Just now, Modfan said: Are they done building their brewery in Charlton? Just about . July is supposed opening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 90-95 with dews Thursday being shown now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 90-95 with dews Thursday being shown now Take em up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, BrianW said: Take em up. So...the take away is that 87 = 90 to 95 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 17C 850s...probably a lot of 92-93F readings in the hot spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 52 minutes ago, dendrite said: 17C 850s...probably a lot of 92-93F readings in the hot spots. It's really something comparing that, with the feel Monday morning at like 6:45 am... That's like the bottom barrel nadir of this bullschit spring ...then a meteoric reversal. The half committed green up should be Cambodian rainforest stuff a week from Monday - Anyway, I'm waiting for the models to back off the trimmer front early Friday ... but, hasn't happened yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 I might head up to Cannon tomorrow morning. I "think" (hoping) it's going to be snow above 2500'. I've been sitting at 29 ski days for almost a month. I've never reached 30! NAM trended colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 1 hour ago, MarkO said: I might head up to Cannon tomorrow morning. I "think" (hoping) it's going to be snow above 2500'. I've been sitting at 29 ski days for almost a month. I've never reached 30! NAM trended colder. I haven't looked at the Whites but here in the Greens it looks like a picnic table topper if anything. Looking at soundings for MPV the NAM is coldest and wet-bulbs the 0C to 875mb tonight but then drops to 900mb by 12z....though that's still 3,000-4,000ft and above for snow. GFS is warmer with the 0C isotherm getting down to 850-875mb at its coldest. I think it could whiten the high ridge lines in the Greens (3500ft+), but it could also be just -SN at 34F that struggles to stick even on the rocky summits. Without even looking, I'd assume the Whites and points east will have better UVM and thus some better possibilities of lowering the snow level through dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: So...the take away is that 87 = 90 to 95 ? Yep. I think Kevin is right. BDL will be 90+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 We bump? Thumps and a bump? A pre-frontal trough enters western New England early afternoon Thursday, followed by a cold front late in the day. The airmass destabilizes at this time with Totals 50-54 and CAPE near or a little above 1000 J/Kg. Expect scattered afternoon showers/thunderbumpers Thursday, primarily in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 21 minutes ago, BrianW said: Yep. I think Kevin is right. BDL will be 90+... Yeah I was just given you schit but it's true - the MOS products will tend to slope toward climo beyond D3 pretty steeply. By the time one gets to day 5, if they're looking at 15+ F spreads between climo and the product numbers ...it's probably more important/telling to consider the air mass/governing circumstances, more so than what those numbers are actually saying. I've been eyeing this for some time and agree - in fact ..I'd go so far as to say it has a corrective look about it. Like, we get whiplashed in the other direction and put up a couple back-to-back 15 to 20+ers spanning a couple days ..if nothing else just to (haha) hide the misery of the last 10 days. But definitely to chap Steve's azz. Kidding of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if the four majors aren't nearly as absurdly negative on the month, say week from this Monday. Looks like about three solid days of positive departures, two of which could go big because that overnight Wed and Thur nights look pretty elevated to me after sporting perhaps an average of 86 Wed then 91 or 92 Thursday. Interesting... But then, we have a pretty sharp cold front that's been permanent fixture in the Friday time frame since that day came into any longer range product. It's typical - also - at this time of year for anyone along and N of the 40th parallel (E of say ORD) to not get that 4th and 5th day in the positive departure air mass, because any tom-dink-and-hairy dent in the height fields up near Dead Horse tends to send a wedge underneath the northern rim of the positive southern anomaly. It sort of like cheats that way...with high heights in a cold low troposphere - well, relatively cold. I don't think the cool down will be anything like what we've had since winter turned the corner. More like going back to seasonal, which will be pretty much gem weather. Seasonality in May, with the sun is top 10 stuff - in essence, summer flips the script this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 The front brings us down to slightly AN for 1.5 days and then retorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2017 Share Posted May 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The front brings us down to slightly AN for 1.5 days and then retorch The 11-15 day is normal on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2017 Share Posted May 14, 2017 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The 11-15 day is normal on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted May 14, 2017 Share Posted May 14, 2017 NWS Boston bumped it to 90. Thursday... A mid summer-like day appears to be in the cards for much of the region. A very mild start with 850T around +16C coupled with southwest flow should yield a very warm to hot afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach near 90 away from a modified marine airmass across portions of RI/SE MA and especially the Cape/Islands. Dry weather will dominate Thu as forcing will be limited, but can not rule out the low risk for a few afternoon/evening T-storms on a pre-frontal trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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