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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


nj2va

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The new precip-type feature in GRLevel3 software (v2.60) uses the HRRR precip type analysis. (Or so the GRLevel3 owner forum says). This is getting pretty interesting right now to see different colors mostly (but not entirely) lining up with the observed precip types.

p8CVdq3.jpg

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5 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

It might end up close with the QPF. I think a met said you cant trust the snow maps because it counts sleet and frzn as snow. 

Yeah QPF was good. I wasn't looking at the snowfall maps so much as I was looking at the precipitation maps showing it really beating back against the advancing sleet line and putting up a fight around 95. We didn't get any of the heavy snow and the line blew through 95 well to the west and shows no signs of retreating. I knew the snowfall maps would be off unless the precip maps showed the snow/mix line staying southeast.

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7 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Just swept the board at the six hour mark.  3.7" with the heaviest snow of the night falling now.  Visibility a little over 1/4 mile.  Winds have come up considerably.  29 degrees.

Congrats, a lot heavier snow in western Maryland than most models had

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24 minutes ago, Wxhoov said:

Im in north york at around 1000ft and its pouring snow! at about 7" already wouldnt be surprised to see 2 feet as long as we dont mix

I see that you have just joined so I will throw some friendly advice your way. Many on here don't take kindly when those outside their region come in with observations of how well they are doing especially when many of them are getting semi-screwed. Now if everyone was enjoying in on the fun it would probably be a different story but in this case many will see this as nothing more then gloating. So you may want to refrain from posting your obs or at least tone them down quite a bit. 

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I see that you have just joined so I will throw some friendly advice your way. Many on here don't take kindly when those outside their region come in with observations of how well they are doing especially when many of them are getting semi-screwed. Now if everyone was enjoying in on the fun it would probably be a different story but in this case many will see this as nothing more then gloating. So you may want to refrain from posting your obs or at least tone them down quite a bit. 

I don't see the issue. York is pretty much in the Mid-Atlantic. It's not like he's in Philly or Burlington.

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Hang in, conditions around DC to BAL should improve as low is now dropping 2 mbs an hour and this warm air aloft should begin to pour northwards up and over the cold dome over the northeast. Your sleet will probably be an issue for NJ soon. Meanwhile, could see p types changing back to snow in MD next 2-3 hours. Diamond Shoals off NC just ramped up to 50 knot southerly winds and track of low currently 996 mbs near NC-VA border appears to be across VA beach towards a position off Ocean City then northeast. 

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I knew the score when I tracked this storm. My mid March climo is 1 inch. I received 2 inches of snow and one inch of sleet then rain, so I am content. I cant complain, I am way over my climo for March in Dale City.

I hope everyone in the west and north parts of the Mid Atlantic gets 2 feet of snow, and I will cheer em on all the way!

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4 minutes ago, AlaskaETC said:

I don't see the issue. York is pretty much in the Mid-Atlantic. It's not like he's in Philly or Burlington.

There are many that feel as you do. But it still doesn't change the fact that there are many that don't. As i said before it is only friendly advice and nothing more. He can do with it what he will.

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

There are many that feel as you do. But it still doesn't change the fact that there are many that don't. As i said before it is only friendly advice and nothing more. He can do with it what he will.

I've been asleep for a bit - short range models change any of this back to snow in the cities still at some point?

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We may be seeing colder air beginning to funnel in from the north on the surface. Held steady at 27 from 1 am to 3 am but within the last 45 minutes or so I have seen a 2 degree drop. Of course part of this drop may be attributed to slightly higher rates that I have seen. It may also be an indication that the warm layer may be withdrawing back to the south as the flakes have gone from icy to a more typical snowflake. 

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6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I've been asleep for a bit - short range models change any of this back to snow in the cities still at some point?

To be honest I haven't really looked to hard into the mesos yet been busy with some other things. But from what little I have seen I think there will be a flip and those Baltimore and north east may do fairly well as it pivots. But that is more just a gut call on my part then anything else.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is a pretty hellacious sleet dump, but look at that legit deathband around Baltimore? Gravity waves and all..

Greatest rate of sleet I have personlly ever seen, but I didn't live here in 2007. 

This was so close to being an amazing snowstorm for my part of the city. 

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

To be honest I haven't really looked to hard into the mesos yet been busy with some other things. But from what little I have seen I think there will be a flip and those Baltimore and north east may do fairly well as it pivots. But that is more just a gut call on my part then anything else.

Thanks - will cross fingers.

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