March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[CoastalWx]

That WCB is just stupid LOL. Jeesus.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

lol...wow. Oh Nammy...

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pick your NAM of choice and run with it I guess.

Pick your NAM of choice and congratulate Dendrite.

[ORH_wxman]

H7 is kind of compact in its RH field. I would have figured further NW with the max RH based on that track. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

lol...wow. Oh Nammy...

lol

 

[dendrite]

It tries to drop about an inch of Qpf Here in 3-4hrs. Lol

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Winds look downright nuts Tuesday aftn. Definitely a concern I have on coast..especially near mix zone where snow is wet. 

Can't state this enough for coastal EMA RI peeps, if you need to , prepare today for power issues. Better to be safe

[SouthCoastMA]

Looks like an initial thump here then rain. Maybe 4-6". 

[dryslot]

Absolute crush job up here and back to the west

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Can't state this enough for coastal EMA RI peeps, if you need to , prepare today for power issues. Better to be safe

The 12z NAM wind fields look decently stronger all up and down the coast. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That is a monster WCB though.

Yeah, thumper dumper

[dendrite]

The nice thing about it is we get crushed with the WCB Mar 93-lite style...there's no real worries necessairly about where the best banding sets up. Everyone just gets reemed a new one with the warm conveyor. Of course it's the NAM on meth and heroin, but the same general point stands.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

The 12z NAM wind fields look decently stronger all up and down the coast. 

Probably gusts over 50 inland and 70 + coast 

[BuildingScienceWx]

Didn't like that run for coastal CT, yikes. All WCB in 6-8 hours time, then done. The WCB is absolutely amazing, but we wouldn't break 12" with that alone.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dendrite said:

The nice thing about it is we get crushed with the WCB Mar 93-lite style...there's no real worries necessairly about where the best banding sets up. Everyone just gets reemed a new one with the warm conveyor. Of course it's the NAM on meth and heroin, but the same general point stands.

The warm conveyor has been impressive on all guidance. It probably helps that the source region of the moisture is way down south and being fueled by March sun angle convection. 

[powderfreak]

So looking at it...that run was east of 6z down in the mid-Atlantic, and then ended up much stronger (almost 8mb) and a little west of 6z up in New England region.

The extra digging must've made it take a more northerly track than ENE.

[dryslot]

Crushed

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The warm conveyor has been impressive on all guidance. It probably helps that the source region of the moisture is way down south and being fueled by March sun angle convection. 

Running over near record cold temperatures as an antecedent airmass.

Its all there for very good precipitation production.

[CoastalWx]

NAm started getting the classic warm bias it loves to do, aloft. 

[JBinStoughton]

23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

How reliable is this NAM at this lead time?  Too far west for my tastes! 

[powderfreak]

Gotta love the NAM... drives ya crazy.

NYC area went from 2"+ QPF to under 1". 

 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

NAm started getting the classic warm bias it loves to do, aloft. 

Just running the Cobb snow ratios off it, it wants to mix PWM. 4:1, ha!

[BostonWX]

Rpm just went wild with 24 to 30 over pa and nys and taint issues here. Probably some convective feedback going on.

[dryslot]

Just now, JBinStoughton said:

How reliable is this NAM at this lead time?  Too far west for my tastes! 

I would give it a couple more cycles, I just am looking at what its doing aloft for now.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

I would give it a couple more cycles, I just am looking at what its doing aloft for now.

Yeah don't trust that model outside of about 24 hours. Even then use wisely with other guidance taken into account. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I would give it a couple more cycles, I just am looking at what its doing aloft for now.

I would put it in the category of "most unreliable" models.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gotta love the 2-4 the NAM is preinting out in SE Mass.... this can stop coming west now... thanks 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gotta love the 2-4 the NAM is preinting out in SE Mass.... this can stop coming west now... thanks 

Meh!!

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Meh!!

Classic...this is phase two of the "lets freak out over some western outliers"...first was the GFS a couple days ago. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gotta love the 2-4 the NAM is preinting out in SE Mass.... this can stop coming west now... thanks 

Toss until further notice.