March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[CoastalWx]

The model differences are interesting. My guess is euro and GFS compromise somewhat.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Not 2'+. You need to relax.

You just said 1-2' won't be widespread..

And yes..we always see 2'+ bands in these. There will be one

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

James is acct hacking again. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You just said 1-2' won't be widespread..

And yes..we always see 2'+ bands in these. There will be one

I think 12-18 is better with lolli to 20 or a little more in deformation stuff. 24-36" is absurd for a 12 hr hit.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The GFS and EURO have completely switched positions over the past 2 days.  The Euro was way east and the GFS was amped up...now its the Euro that's amped and the 6z GFS is even further east.

lol yea, Back to their natural positions. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think 12-18 is better with lolli to 20 or a little more in deformation stuff. 24-36" is absurd for a 12 hr hit.

It snows from pre dawn Tuesday thru much of Wednesday

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It snows from pre dawn Tuesday thru much of Wednesday

The meat of it is really 12 hrs.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It snows from pre dawn Tuesday thru much of Wednesday

days and days of mid level magic.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The meat of it is really 12 hrs.

12 x 3" = 36" ?

[Damage In Tolland]

EPS mean looks like it's just inside the BM

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

12 x 3" = 36" ?

Sure. Maybe 6 hrs of 1-2"/hr...then 12hrs of 3"/hr...followed by another 24 hrs of 1"/hr snows.

[CoastalWx]

I'm thinking 6z GFSi is way too east and end result track maybe a bit east of 00z euro. We'll see what 12z brings. My guess is hi res models are going to be entertaining in good and bad ways. Too early for them...even RGEM.

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The model differences are interesting. My guess is euro and GFS compromise somewhat.

Its funny as we said that 2-3 days ago...they did compromise, and then keep going apart the other way, ha.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm thinking 6z GFSi is way too east and end result track maybe a bit east of 00z euro. We'll see what 12z brings. My guess is hi res models are going to be entertaining in good and bad ways. Too early for them...even RGEM.

What is the RDPS model I keep seeing?

[powderfreak]

EPS low tracks.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What is the RDPS model I keep seeing?

RGEM

[CoastalWx]

I'll take some of those slower/SW MSLP centers.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The model differences are interesting. My guess is euro and GFS compromise somewhat.

70/30 usually is how it goes. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro mid levels are sweet for srn NY/NW CT/ernNY and into Berks...on northeast.

 

I'm also seeing signs of strong low level fronto/CF. Maybe not entirely all coastal front, but basically strong 950-850 fronto really helping with a band of precip just west of low track. If we see both of these features...then there may be a meso screw zone somewhere in between.  It's too early to get cute...but it's possible. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

70/30 usually is how it goes. 

That's what I would run with.

[TalcottWx]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty easy forecast now.

1-2' with local amounts 30-36"

 

Just needed that last set of runs to confirm

Lmao come on Kev too fast for 30"

[codfishsnowman]

I hope the euro isn't too west like in 2015

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro mid levels are sweet for srn NY/NW CT/ernNY and into Berks...on northeast.

 

I'm also seeing signs of strong low level fronto/CF. Maybe not entirely all coastal front, but basically strong 950-850 fronto really helping with a band of precip just west of low track. If we see both of these features...then there may be a meso screw zone somewhere in between.  It's too early to get cute...but it's possible. 

There is pretty good consensus on a mid level band over the interior. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro mid levels are sweet for srn NY/NW CT/ernNY and into Berks...on northeast.

 

I'm also seeing signs of strong low level fronto/CF. Maybe not entirely all coastal front, but basically strong 950-850 fronto really helping with a band of precip just west of low track. If we see both of these features...then there may be a meso screw zone somewhere in between.  It's too early to get cute...but it's possible. 

The NAM and even the GGEM sort of show that in their QPF outputs...mid-level banding max in central New England with another area right on the coastline near BOS to PVD.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Lmao come on Kev too fast for 30"

I'm not joking . It's not hauling azz. It's not stalling either. But there's quite a few EPS members that are much slower and it snows thru midday Wed at least . Just sit back and relax and stop seeing the back edge on radar

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

70/30 usually is how it goes. 

As we always joke, gotta go to the SREFs for the good fix for western areas.

All the ARW members like we always joke about are like congrats SYR, while the NMB members are congrats BOS.

The mean finds the middle between SYR and BOS

 

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I hope the euro isn't too west like in 2015

At that time it was only the Nam and Euro

Gfs is the only model which is an eastern outlier

[moneypitmike]

Given their respective  shifts over the last 24-36 hours, the GFS and EC each get 'meh' grades with their handling of this system.  Too bad it's moving as quickly as it is.  The slower idea of prior days would surely be epic for many.

I may be stuck at home for this which would be a good thing IF that 700 track through central CT plays out.  Just the same, I think the winds up at Pit2 could be impressive.
 

[OceanStWx]

First impression of overnight runs is I'm not surprised the Euro came west. I am surprised at just how far west the 700 mb low is though. 

[powderfreak]

Crazy thing is we've been watching this for what seems like a week and we are still 48 hours out from precip even reaching New England in S.CT.