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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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1 minute ago, North and West of Town said:

Thanks! Are you closer to Mt. Tabor or to Troy Hills? That might matter; even better if you're on Watnong Mountain.

Troy hills but I'll be riding out the storm at the girlfriends in berkley heights. Trading 10 miles of latitude for 130 feet of elevation lol 

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Mt Holly disco talks about the sleet potential from 5AM-10AM from Philly all the way up to New Brunswick that could limit totals

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Nasty no`easter will hammer our region Tuesday morning. Everyone northwest of I-95 (e PA and nw NJ especially RDG to Lehigh valley to Somerville north) should be thinking about sheltering in place from around 2 AM to 2 PM...in other words no unnecessary travel. Follow the advice of local officials. If you must travel, it is recommended that you have a safety packet with you, including warm clothing, bottled water and a fully charged cell phone. This high impact relatively short duration nor`easter threatens to shut down many roads for a time Tuesday morning, northwest of I-95 due to snowfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour along with blowing and drifting of a relatively dry snow. I-95: GFS colder thermal profiles vs the NAM/RGEM thermal profiles. We opt for the warmer mesoscale models which continue to indicate that sleet will be the primary precipitation type for several hours between 5 am and 10 am (one half to 1 inch amounts of sleet possible) along and southeast of I-95, playing havoc with snow amount forecasting. This includes the Wilmington to Philadelphia to New Brunswick stretch eastward. if there is no change to sleet... snowfall easily exceeds 15 inches. For now we go with the lower snowfall sleet mix. For the coast vicinity of Atlantic City southward through southeastern New Jersey and coastal Delaware...a bit of snow to start, enough to make it slippery, then over to heavy rain with poor drainage street flooding near daybreak as well as coastal flooding and scattered damaging wind gusts to 55 or 60 mph, then sleet mixes in toward forenoon and ends as snow midday or early afternoon. Challenging to say the least. Power outages are likely, particularly closer to the NJ coast, due to the combination of high winds and heavy snow. Warnings have not changed since the 330 am issuance and expect no changes til our 330 PM update.

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6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

We've been here before.... models overdo 850 line, and 2mt, especially with such a dynamic set-up, it wouldn't surprise me... rates alone could easily keep LI, NYC all snow, and pounding snow for that matter..

WAA snows always come In harder and faster than modeled... 

 

I think people need to stop looking at surface reflection, and R/s lines on Global's 12 hours before go time lol... 

I think i flip to rain for 2 hours or so after a solid 15", which i will gladly take. 

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On to 12z 3/13

QPF range NYC area / Snowfall

 

SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 / 10 - 18"  (mixing)
NAM: 2.00 - 2.15 /  12 - 18"  (mixing)
PNAM: 2.15 - 2.30  : 14 - 20" (less mixing)
GFS: 1.50 - 1.75 / 12 - 22 " (mostly snow)
GEFS:
RHEM: 2.00 - 2.15 / 10 - 18" (mixing)
GGEM: 2.25 - 2.45 / 12 - 22inches

GGEM-ENS:
UKMET:  2.45 - 2.50 / 12 - 18 inches (mixing) 
ECM:
ECM-EPS:
JMA:

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3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Nobody's escaping 12-18" 

I'll be thrilled if I end up with over 12". I know it'll snow like crazy by me for hours, but I've seen this movie on the south shore way too many times. Then there are the nightmare outcomes like 2/13/14 which literally ran the mix line 5 miles north of me for hours. It'll still be a fun storm though and amazing for March. And what falls here will freeze into cement tomorrow night.

 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'll be thrilled if I end up with over 12". I know it'll snow like crazy by me for hours, but I've seen this movie on the south shore way too many times. Then there are the nightmare outcomes like 2/13/14 which literally ran the mix line 5 miles north of me for hours. It'll still be a fun storm though and amazing for March. And what falls here will freeze into cement tomorrow night.

 

It seems like they bust our forecasts more than they do for other areas.  We changed over hours in advance of other areas on Long Island in Feb 2014

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1 minute ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said:

Euro is a March 2001 level bust for most of LI. Kuchera map has barely 6 inches for Suffolk County.

3/01 wasn't much of a bust for Suffolk County, lots of spots with 16" in 3/01 there.  Also, what do you mean by "most of LI" I am in SW LI and the Euro shows me as getting 14-16 inches.

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