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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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Just now, F5TornadoF5 said:

Probably a compromise between the two, but we shall see. Onto the ukmet and Euro. 

Its not often we get storms to last for a full 24 hours. Sometimes we get some lingering back end or snow showers but not accumulating type stuff. 96 was around 30 hours but that's definitely not the norm. PD2 was about 18 hours, a break then some heavier stuff in the evening before some freezing drizzle and then snow showers the next day

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1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Two questios:

When do advisories go up?

When was the last time we had a foot of snow fall on a weekday? I would only assume the evening rush hour will be havoc for drivers.

Thursday, February 9th of this year, much of Long Island reached a foot.

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13 minutes ago, Heavy Wet Snow said:

Seems like a 10 hour thump and she's gone. Those 24 hour snow runs are gone. I think that hurts us for getting those outrageous amounts. Hard to get more than 10-15 in such a short time. Major east coast storm yes, historic, idk 

Could also be an expression of GFS progressive bias. Those midlevels suggest slower to me. Full on stalls in Maine though. We'll see.

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2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Two questios:

When do advisories go up?

When was the last time we had a foot of snow fall on a weekday? I would only assume the evening rush hour will be havoc for drivers.

Judging by Upton wording yesterday comparing it to an earlier blizzard I would think that blizzard watch will go into effect by 10 p.m. tomorrow. And warnings would  fly by the morning package on Monday

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3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Two questios:

When do advisories go up?

When was the last time we had a foot of snow fall on a weekday? I would only assume the evening rush hour will be havoc for drivers.

Not really-most will stay home on Tuesday-it's a different world now with the ability to tellecommute

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Not really-most will stay home on Tuesday-it's a different world now with the ability to tellecommute

My doctor has canceled my tues morning appt already...called me at 7 am today.....lawyer canceled real estate closing for Tues afternoon already.

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

advisories? You mean watches? Usually within 72 hours from the start of an event, and since this is high confidence, my guess would be PM shift today or at the latest AM shift tomorrow.

Wow, really? I didnt think today was possible. I fogured WWS and B.W up by tomorrow night and warning by Monday morning but fully Expect a special weather statement by 4p package today.

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1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said:

Wow, really? I didnt think today was possible. I fogured WWS and B.W up by tomorrow night and warning by Monday morning but fully Expect a special weather statement by 4p package today.

They have an HWO out already for the storm.  Watches would go up tomorrow morning with the early update I would think.

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Models are trending towards the Euro for sure, seeing the gfs goes stronger is a clear sign of that. If things play out what the majority of models show then this will definitely be a historic storm for this time of year. How often do you see a potential 12"+ storm in mid March for our area?

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Just now, nyblizz44 said:

Wow, really? I didnt think today was possible. I fogured WWS and B.W up by tomorrow night and warning by Monday morning but fully Expect a special weather statement by 4p package today.

According to their own definitions its up to 72 hours, 96 in some CWAs and 50% pop of 6"+. So they have the confidence of 50% easily and by the PM shift we are looking at blizzard and winter storm watches. We will be 60-66 hours from the start of the storm. However, im not 100% certain they will be up tonight, but i am certain that at the very very latest it will be in the AM shift tomorrow. I would be shocked if it takes until tomorrow night.

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5 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

Wow, really? I didnt think today was possible. I fogured WWS and B.W up by tomorrow night and warning by Monday morning but fully Expect a special weather statement by 4p package today.

Its usually 48 hours from the start, so I'd think early tomorrow morning so people wake up to winter storm or blizzard watches. Because confidence is high (assuming euro/ukmet hold steady) they could go with tonight instead.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models are trending towards the Euro for sure, seeing the gfs goes stronger is a clear sign of that. If things play out what the majority of models show then this will definitely be a historic storm for this time of year. How often do you see a potential 12"+ storm in mid March for our area?

I can only think of the Superstorm and the Blizzard of 1888!

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Not really up for debate anymore... widespread 12-18... where our CCB sets up is who sees 20+.. Nam will comes east in line with GFS/euro/ukie/ggem.... intensity could very as we are still 48-72 hours... and I would expect to see slow upticks in the western precip shield...

 

personally i like think long island/ NYC sees 20+... I also think many interior portions of NNJ, NEPA, and the HV will see slightly less QPF..but better ratios, compensating for the city's higher LE.... I'm going all in with uniform 18-24" for most on the sub here...12-18 for most of interior (Far interior) and locally 24+ for Island, SCT

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From the National Weather Service main page:

 

Here are some terms which the national weather service uses to describe winter weather as well as the definitions of watches, warnings and advisories issued for winter weather events. A hazardous weather outlook is issued prior to a winter storm watch. The outlook is issued when forecasters believe winter storm conditions are possible. Outlooks are usually issued 3 to 5 days in advance of a winter storm.

In general a winter storm watch alerts the public to the possibility of heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet. Winter storm watches are usually issued 24 to 72 hours before the beginning of a winter storm. These events may occur separately or in combination. A blizzard watch is issued when blizzard conditions are possible in 24 to 72 hours.

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5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

According to their own definitions its up to 72 hours, 96 in some CWAs and 50% pop of 6"+. So they have the confidence of 50% easily and by the PM shift we are looking at blizzard and winter storm watches. We will be 60-66 hours from the start of the storm. However, im not 100% certain they will be up tonight, but i am certain that at the very very latest it will be in the AM shift tomorrow. I would be shocked if it takes until tomorrow night.

Agree, I think watches go up at 4 pm today, with such a high impact storm and with high confidence in at least warning criteria snowfall.  Want to get out ahead of this one.  I wouldn't think blizzard watches will go up, though, until they have more confidence in dynamics/winds.  

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10 minutes ago, LongIslandWx said:

I can only think of the Superstorm and the Blizzard of 1888!

We live in interesting weather times..  I remember in March 93 the day before that storm not understanding how it could be 45 degrees.  Now, it seems routine (twice at least this year) that its been near or above 60 the day before measurable snow.

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10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

According to their own definitions its up to 72 hours, 96 in some CWAs and 50% pop of 6"+. So they have the confidence of 50% easily and by the PM shift we are looking at blizzard and winter storm watches. We will be 60-66 hours from the start of the storm. However, im not 100% certain they will be up tonight, but i am certain that at the very very latest it will be in the AM shift tomorrow. I would be shocked if it takes until tomorrow night.

they might wait to get some more sampligs in and wait till the 00z runs too see what watches and where and post tomorrow morning.

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6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

From the National Weather Service main page:

 

Here are some terms which the national weather service uses to describe winter weather as well as the definitions of watches, warnings and advisories issued for winter weather events. A hazardous weather outlook is issued prior to a winter storm watch. The outlook is issued when forecasters believe winter storm conditions are possible. Outlooks are usually issued 3 to 5 days in advance of a winter storm.

In general a winter storm watch alerts the public to the possibility of heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet. Winter storm watches are usually issued 24 to 72 hours before the beginning of a winter storm. These events may occur separately or in combination. A blizzard watch is issued when blizzard conditions are possible in 24 to 72 hours.

Thanks very much, you have been highly instructive

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