Rittenhouse Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Doesn't the gfs have a known bias for underestimating precip on the ne quadrant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: I doubt it with the block up north Probably a compromise between the two, but we shall see. Onto the ukmet and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, F5TornadoF5 said: Probably a compromise between the two, but we shall see. Onto the ukmet and Euro. Canadian is now inside the benchmark. 12-18 inches region wide. We are coming to the euro alliance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Only the gfs does that Yep This might be a long duration storm if it cuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, F5TornadoF5 said: Probably a compromise between the two, but we shall see. Onto the ukmet and Euro. Its not often we get storms to last for a full 24 hours. Sometimes we get some lingering back end or snow showers but not accumulating type stuff. 96 was around 30 hours but that's definitely not the norm. PD2 was about 18 hours, a break then some heavier stuff in the evening before some freezing drizzle and then snow showers the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Two questios: When do advisories go up? When was the last time we had a foot of snow fall on a weekday? I would only assume the evening rush hour will be havoc for drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, David-LI said: Two questios: When do advisories go up? When was the last time we had a foot of snow fall on a weekday? I would only assume the evening rush hour will be havoc for drivers. Thursday, February 9th of this year, much of Long Island reached a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: Two questios: When do advisories go up? When was the last time we had a foot of snow fall on a weekday? I would only assume the evening rush hour will be havoc for drivers. Watches issued tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, Heavy Wet Snow said: Seems like a 10 hour thump and she's gone. Those 24 hour snow runs are gone. I think that hurts us for getting those outrageous amounts. Hard to get more than 10-15 in such a short time. Major east coast storm yes, historic, idk Could also be an expression of GFS progressive bias. Those midlevels suggest slower to me. Full on stalls in Maine though. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: Two questios: When do advisories go up? When was the last time we had a foot of snow fall on a weekday? I would only assume the evening rush hour will be havoc for drivers. Judging by Upton wording yesterday comparing it to an earlier blizzard I would think that blizzard watch will go into effect by 10 p.m. tomorrow. And warnings would fly by the morning package on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Gfs is wide spread 12-18.. locally 20+ in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 advisories? You mean watches? Usually within 72 hours from the start of an event, and since this is high confidence, my guess would be PM shift today or at the latest AM shift tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: Two questios: When do advisories go up? When was the last time we had a foot of snow fall on a weekday? I would only assume the evening rush hour will be havoc for drivers. Not really-most will stay home on Tuesday-it's a different world now with the ability to tellecommute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Glad to see Canadian sobered up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Not really-most will stay home on Tuesday-it's a different world now with the ability to tellecommute My doctor has canceled my tues morning appt already...called me at 7 am today.....lawyer canceled real estate closing for Tues afternoon already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: advisories? You mean watches? Usually within 72 hours from the start of an event, and since this is high confidence, my guess would be PM shift today or at the latest AM shift tomorrow. Wow, really? I didnt think today was possible. I fogured WWS and B.W up by tomorrow night and warning by Monday morning but fully Expect a special weather statement by 4p package today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said: Wow, really? I didnt think today was possible. I fogured WWS and B.W up by tomorrow night and warning by Monday morning but fully Expect a special weather statement by 4p package today. They have an HWO out already for the storm. Watches would go up tomorrow morning with the early update I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Models are trending towards the Euro for sure, seeing the gfs goes stronger is a clear sign of that. If things play out what the majority of models show then this will definitely be a historic storm for this time of year. How often do you see a potential 12"+ storm in mid March for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, nyblizz44 said: Wow, really? I didnt think today was possible. I fogured WWS and B.W up by tomorrow night and warning by Monday morning but fully Expect a special weather statement by 4p package today. According to their own definitions its up to 72 hours, 96 in some CWAs and 50% pop of 6"+. So they have the confidence of 50% easily and by the PM shift we are looking at blizzard and winter storm watches. We will be 60-66 hours from the start of the storm. However, im not 100% certain they will be up tonight, but i am certain that at the very very latest it will be in the AM shift tomorrow. I would be shocked if it takes until tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: Wow, really? I didnt think today was possible. I fogured WWS and B.W up by tomorrow night and warning by Monday morning but fully Expect a special weather statement by 4p package today. Its usually 48 hours from the start, so I'd think early tomorrow morning so people wake up to winter storm or blizzard watches. Because confidence is high (assuming euro/ukmet hold steady) they could go with tonight instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Models are trending towards the Euro for sure, seeing the gfs goes stronger is a clear sign of that. If things play out what the majority of models show then this will definitely be a historic storm for this time of year. How often do you see a potential 12"+ storm in mid March for our area? I can only think of the Superstorm and the Blizzard of 1888! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Not really up for debate anymore... widespread 12-18... where our CCB sets up is who sees 20+.. Nam will comes east in line with GFS/euro/ukie/ggem.... intensity could very as we are still 48-72 hours... and I would expect to see slow upticks in the western precip shield... personally i like think long island/ NYC sees 20+... I also think many interior portions of NNJ, NEPA, and the HV will see slightly less QPF..but better ratios, compensating for the city's higher LE.... I'm going all in with uniform 18-24" for most on the sub here...12-18 for most of interior (Far interior) and locally 24+ for Island, SCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 From the National Weather Service main page: Here are some terms which the national weather service uses to describe winter weather as well as the definitions of watches, warnings and advisories issued for winter weather events. A hazardous weather outlook is issued prior to a winter storm watch. The outlook is issued when forecasters believe winter storm conditions are possible. Outlooks are usually issued 3 to 5 days in advance of a winter storm. In general a winter storm watch alerts the public to the possibility of heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet. Winter storm watches are usually issued 24 to 72 hours before the beginning of a winter storm. These events may occur separately or in combination. A blizzard watch is issued when blizzard conditions are possible in 24 to 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: According to their own definitions its up to 72 hours, 96 in some CWAs and 50% pop of 6"+. So they have the confidence of 50% easily and by the PM shift we are looking at blizzard and winter storm watches. We will be 60-66 hours from the start of the storm. However, im not 100% certain they will be up tonight, but i am certain that at the very very latest it will be in the AM shift tomorrow. I would be shocked if it takes until tomorrow night. Agree, I think watches go up at 4 pm today, with such a high impact storm and with high confidence in at least warning criteria snowfall. Want to get out ahead of this one. I wouldn't think blizzard watches will go up, though, until they have more confidence in dynamics/winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'll bet they want to wait on today's Euro run before issuing any watches. Still I doubt they'd issue anything until tonight or tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I'll bet they want to wait on today's Euro run before issuing any watches. Still I doubt they'd issue anything until tonight or tomorrow morning. Honestly... it's only Saturday... I don't think watches go up till tomorrow's AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, LongIslandWx said: I can only think of the Superstorm and the Blizzard of 1888! We live in interesting weather times.. I remember in March 93 the day before that storm not understanding how it could be 45 degrees. Now, it seems routine (twice at least this year) that its been near or above 60 the day before measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: According to their own definitions its up to 72 hours, 96 in some CWAs and 50% pop of 6"+. So they have the confidence of 50% easily and by the PM shift we are looking at blizzard and winter storm watches. We will be 60-66 hours from the start of the storm. However, im not 100% certain they will be up tonight, but i am certain that at the very very latest it will be in the AM shift tomorrow. I would be shocked if it takes until tomorrow night. they might wait to get some more sampligs in and wait till the 00z runs too see what watches and where and post tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: From the National Weather Service main page: Here are some terms which the national weather service uses to describe winter weather as well as the definitions of watches, warnings and advisories issued for winter weather events. A hazardous weather outlook is issued prior to a winter storm watch. The outlook is issued when forecasters believe winter storm conditions are possible. Outlooks are usually issued 3 to 5 days in advance of a winter storm. In general a winter storm watch alerts the public to the possibility of heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet. Winter storm watches are usually issued 24 to 72 hours before the beginning of a winter storm. These events may occur separately or in combination. A blizzard watch is issued when blizzard conditions are possible in 24 to 72 hours. Thanks very much, you have been highly instructive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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