pasnownut Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: And on cue, as you were typing your response, Horst was saying that Friday looks warmer (and wetter) in Lanco with snow possibilities now north of the turnpike. These are the systems that historically have whitened areas from Harrisburg on north while I've cried in my puddles. Smart mind(s)?? I thought we had a chance as the arctic press seemed to be coming early enough, but I've got to say that while I've learned lots and lots weatherwise in the last 2 decades, I got caught in the model watching/digital snowtrap this year, and got away from my weather roots...looking at the picture from farther away, and how patterns/teleconnections etc would argue for/against storms/events. I spent so much time learning how to read maps and all the nuances w/in them and all the techno garble. Its way more than that....I knew it, but its so fun to look at the perty colors. A good lesson learned for me. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Next Tuesday the real deal for most of PA. a nice sendoff to a terrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, paweather said: Next Tuesday the real deal for most of PA. a nice sendoff to a terrible winter. We can hope...but at this point that's all we got. Far, far away from a sure thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 "Clipper" came south on NAMSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 This Friday deal looks to have narrow window of good precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: This Friday deal looks to have narrow window of good precip. I said this yesterday, I think you end up in a good spot for it, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 29 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: I said this yesterday, I think you end up in a good spot for it, too. I 80 sweetspot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 39 minutes ago, Superstorm said: "Clipper" came south on NAM Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Seems to hold off the cold air down here until it's almost over too, to me. We could use the rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, canderson said: Seems to hold off the cold air down here until it's almost over too, to me. We could use the rain though. Yep. Typical tease as cold press slows as we get closer to game time. I hate the bench. Seen it so many times you'd think I'd learn down here. We get "ours" next week. Pshshhhhh. Hehehe. Loolkolookllokoll (laughs so hard he coughs) nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Well the wind has arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Also looks like i may be in a good spot for the 1st wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 So far the trend for a decent snowfall between the turnpike and I-80 corridor is taking shape. For those southern of the pike, it may be pretty difficult to get anything of significance with the cold air advection just being a little too late to the party with the main bulk of the precip. Still think everyone will eventually change over to some snow, but accumulation wise will be mainly above 40N with best spot to see 2+" in the Laurels on north in the western side of the state, and north of Harrisburg once you're past I-81. I think the sweet spot will fall once again around Clearfield with some areas up along I-80 potentially getting into the 4-8" range with isolated to 10" in a weenie spot. The gradient on the snow accumulations might be impressive once east of the I-81 corridor, but spots around true central could still see 2-5" all the way to the eastern side of the state. Will be fun to watch for those receiving snow as it falls overnight which is a plus when in March. As far as the Sunday deal, we can officially place that into the dumpster with basically no chance to develop anything much further north than Southern Virginia given the 500mb pattern progression. The shortwave is just not robust enough to counter-act the stout confluence depiction over the NE. It will be cold however, so areas around the state will struggle reach 30, especially those with snow on the ground. Temps in the southern tier could hit the mid 30's for highs Sunday afternoon, but the night will be a cold one with temps potentially into the single digits where the heavier snowfall occurs on Friday and down into the teens for the southern reaches of the state. Welcome to March!! Will be keeping an eye on the follow up disturbance possible for Tuesday next week. Right now, models are trying to key on which feature will be the most dominant in the pattern. For now, there is a shot a sizeable event for the area pending if the Miller-B setup can occur with the northern wave digging southeast and low pressure forming over the east coast. Euro keeps the pattern northern stream dominant and takes away the chance for the area as the northern branch disturbance cuts to the north, preventing any interaction with the southern stream and no real primary low forming along the coast. GEFS mean is very solid and EPS mean is not bad either with the handling of the disturbance, so watch for trends in the 500mb pattern through the day and see if the models can maintain a positive look for a developing coastal by Monday night and not differ to the northern stream dagger as shown by last nights Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12z NAM came back a bit south. Nice little teaser for Friday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Hadn't stepped out all day and didn't realize how windy it is. Building gust of 48 mph a little after 3 is the current peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 For State College. Pretty gutsy call out 6 days. This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 57. Breezy, with a west wind around 22 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 31. West wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Thursday A chance of light rain after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 51. West wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain likely before 10pm, then rain and snow likely between 10pm and 1am, then snow after 1am. Low around 31. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Friday Snow likely before 1pm, then scattered snow showers after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. West wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night A slight chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 13. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Monday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Thoughts on Thursday night into Friday remain relatively unchanged to my eye. Perhaps a bit more snow for the southern tier, but nothing to write home about other an some minor accumulation on grassy areas and well shaded parts. The best of the show looks to lie right along I-80 with the best accumulation from State College and to the west and southwest across the Laurels. I'm sticking with a general 4-8" with isolated 10" on the western half of I-80 with 2-5" between the Turnpike and I-80 beginning from State College and to the east. I think someone like @MAG5035 and @2001kx walking away with the most in the forum. Big town wise, Johnstown is in a prime location to get in on the good stuff. Should be fun to hear reports from a lot of you Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Tuesday's event has a chance to turn into a true Miller B. There will plenty of cold air (for once this year) for it to work with if it phases well enough to hit anyone except SE New England). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 31 minutes ago, Jmister said: For State College. Pretty gutsy call out 6 days. This Afternoon Monday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Even gutsier here as they've included snow in our Tuesday night forecast at 70% also... Monday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Looks like the Euro has more of a miller B look with regards to the Tuesday system, which comes more in line with what the GFS has had..for now. The snow swath of the Friday system has shifted north today in some guidance, with the GFS/CMC/RGEM decidedly favoring northern PA esp from I-80 northward. The 12 and 18z NAM has the axis on the I-80 corridor but has accumulating snow to the southern tier east of the mountains in the case of the newer 18z NAM that just came out. The Euro has a solid 2-3" across the southern 2/3s of the state. P-type and downsloping are going to be concerns in the LSV. Probably more so the surface temps. It's gonna come down to how well we can get the cold air established. The cold air for the weekend is quite formidable, although we won't get the complete brunt of it. The early hours of the Euro near initialization time have 850mb temps up in the arctic in the -40 to -45ºC range, which is getting yanked down by the very deep system that lifted west of us and will set up our confluence later in the weekend. -25 to 30ºC 850 temps are slated into interior New England.. extremely cold for March. It will be an active pattern, albeit a northern branch dominated one. Instead of the active Pac jet pointed at Cali (western trough) and no blocking or trough in the east, we now will have the active jet rounding a ridge into BC and the Pac NW and back down into the eastern US. We're in a pretty good place near the gradient. The opportunities are there, we just need some luck for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The 18z GFS has nearly turned the Tuesday event into an I-95 special. Outside of a Norlun type tongue sticking back to about Hazleton, any 12+ inches snows appear to be New Jersey north and east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 44 minutes ago, Voyager said: The 18z GFS has nearly turned the Tuesday event into an I-95 special. Outside of a Norlun type tongue sticking back to about Hazleton, any 12+ inches snows appear to be New Jersey north and east... but 12z had two lows, and now it shows one consolodated low about 75 miles west of 12z primary. That is a nice trend for those of use who like snow. Not particularly a fan of miller B's as typically once again I find myself in the jip zone and points north and east cash in. While bummed about this week, its hard for me not to be stoked for next week. 500 flow looks like a snow lovers delight. Only 24 more model runs to go..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: but 12z had two lows, and now it shows one consolodated low about 75 miles west of 12z primary. That is a nice trend for those of use who like snow. Not particularly a fan of miller B's as typically once again I find myself in the jip zone and points north and east cash in. While bummed about this week, its hard for me not to be stoked for next week. 500 flow looks like a snow lovers delight. Only 24 more model runs to go..... Nut More times than not, I end up in that jip zone as well, as a lot of Miller B's give the Poconos and Wayne County a bit of love before setting out on a New England orgy...lol I think what I'm sick of seeing (and for you guys who TRULY love snow, it must be gut wrenching) is places like New Jersey cashing in while those of us in "supposed" snow country sit and watch from the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: More times than not, I end up in that jip zone as well, as a lot of Miller B's give the Poconos and Wayne County a bit of love before setting out on a New England orgy...lol I think what I'm sick of seeing (and for you guys who TRULY love snow, it must be git wrenching) is places like New Jersey cashing in while those of us in "supposed" snow country sit and watch from the sidelines. Yeah, it is hard as more times than not Miller B's seem to be what were dealing with, and I cant argue your point, you cash in, but way less than the poconos and pts NE. If I lived along the NE corridor right now....Id need a bib from the drool. I love going to the NE forum to learn, but I cant do it right now....I'm sure it would make me hearl listening to how buzzed w/ excitement they must be....and theyve had a decent year already. But hey....I could always move. Southern VT/western NH....yummy. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The Tuesday storm is looking better with each model run. The Op runs & ensembles have trended better today with the storm developing further south & closer to the coast. We first have our appetizer event Friday morning which has the chance to give many of us a few inches of snow. The 12z Euro brought 2-4 inches to most of CTP from I-80 south to the MD line. CTP has a very good forecast discussion that details both events. There will be lots of ups & downs in here over the next few days, but it sure should be exciting to track our final window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 hours ago, Voyager said: More times than not, I end up in that jip zone as well, as a lot of Miller B's give the Poconos and Wayne County a bit of love before setting out on a New England orgy...lol I think what I'm sick of seeing (and for you guys who TRULY love snow, it must be gut wrenching) is places like New Jersey cashing in while those of us in "supposed" snow country sit and watch from the sidelines. This winter's really only been decent in northern and especially NE NJ. SW NJ towards Philly has much less snow. The Hudson Valley in NY is doing much better than last year, and further north in New England. I'm at about my seasonal average now (25") mainly from lucking out with the two major coastal storms so far this winter, along with some nickel events. But the warm periods have made for mostly snow-free ground this winter. Undoubtedly, Southern New England has been on an incredible run with coastal snowstorms and late developers that blossom in time for them. And that has come at the expense of areas further SW like in this subforum. NYC has also had a very good run. Last year it was in a perfect spot to catch the late Jan storm's late north trend and give Central Park the all time single snowstorm record (I missed it living in TX at the time-don't even ask. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 why do I torcher myself in the MA thread. analysis just stinks outside of Chill and Hoffman. SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS is a miss for everyone next week. Even SNE it seems. Friday gets 1--3" it seems. Friday might end up the best chance out of any to see snow on grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, canderson said: GFS is a miss for everyone next week. Even SNE it seems. Friday gets 1--3" it seems. Friday might end up the best chance out of any to see snow on grass. yeah it is ugly seems to go with the winter we have been having. Good Riddance 2017 Winter. 1 or 2 model runs suck you in and then....well onto 12z to see if things changed. Hate this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, paweather said: yeah it is ugly seems to go with the winter we have been having. Good Riddance 2017 Winter. 1 or 2 model runs suck you in and then....well onto 12z to see if things changed. Hate this hobby. It's why you can't model watch and spout out mean model snow totals. Have to see evolution of how it gets there, threading needles has failed all year and lots is needs for next week to pay off. Gotta go in thinking it'll miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Def best run I've seen from the Euro with regards to tomorrow night/Friday's system so far. Nice swath of precip across the state. Accum maps showing 2"+ for the entire state with a 4-6" swath across the I-80 corridor (and a small area of it in the southern Laurels). 2001kx had a weenie 6-7" area right near Clearfield. 3-4" for most of our LSV subforum folks and the Pit gang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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