pasnownut Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 44 minutes ago, paweather said: I'm more intrigued with Friday. Looks like a good couple of inches for us. Might start as rain. toggling through the 6 and 12z panels on various models seem to show from basically rt30 north safely into snow (although a brief mixed period to start here in the LSV.) 850's move swiftly souteast as rates would increase. Thats just todays view.....tomorrows....lookout Adirondacks....lol Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Ok, let's try a new strategy by just focusing on one threat at a time. The chances for Sunday seem to be fading. Early next week there is a chance for another storm ( say a prayer that the Canadian could for once be right!) Even the GFS at 12z still has MDT with a foot of snow at the end of the 16 day run. Ok, on to my new strategy...the first threat on Friday am seems to be trending positively in our favor! All of the 12z models today, including the NAM, GFS, UKMET, GGEM & Euro put all of CTP south of I-80 in the range of 1-3 inches of snow, with the center point on I-76. It would nice to get on the board with this first threat on Friday in probably our final window of the snow season. Then, we can see what other threats come our way before the window closes for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: GEM and CMC trolling us hardcore for next Tuesday. Someone please take hold of the wheel on the snow train. I've not been doing so well. Get this one home for us. That's a nice map. I'd just rather it be for the Sunday event. A Tuesday storm means driving in dangerous conditions or missing more work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 One and two mehhh...three I'm on the wagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: One and two mehhh...three I'm on the wagon. I think one is meh for me, better for you. Two is in the toilet. Three is a ways out there but it's intriguing. Really, saying anything more than that is foolish. Look how quickly this Sunday went to the outhouse. I mean, 36 hours ago the SE forum wasn't even watching this. At this point they might be too far north. It would be nice to close up shop with a bomb next week. A true PA snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: I think one is meh for me, better for you. Two is in the toilet. Three is a ways out there but it's intriguing. Really, saying anything more than that is foolish. Look how quickly this Sunday went to the outhouse. I mean, 36 hours ago the SE forum wasn't even watching this. At this point they might be too far north. It would be nice to close up shop with a bomb next week. A true PA snow bomb. Take the wheel pal......take the wheel. I'll sit in the back and cheer you on. Wont be too rowdy. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 30 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Take the wheel pal......take the wheel. I'll sit in the back and cheer you on. Wont be too rowdy. Nut No pressure, right? I mean, what could possibly go wrong at this point?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Weird temp gradient right now: DC: 70 York: 64 Philadelphia: 66 Lancaster: 59 Harrisburg: 54 State College: 50 Bradford: 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: No pressure, right? I mean, what could possibly go wrong at this point?... Right. Nit much else can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 37 minutes ago, canderson said: Weird temp gradient right now: DC: 70 York: 64 Philadelphia: 66 Lancaster: 59 Harrisburg: 54 State College: 50 Bradford: 52 You called the miss for the weekend yesterday morning. Most of us were looking at a bunch of models with really pretty colors right over us, and you came in and dropped a 1 line zinger full of poop all over us. You ended up being spot on. All aboard for Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Come on guys, cheer up ! There is a good chance at a few inches of snow on Friday am. The 18z GFS gave the LSV 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Come on guys, cheer up ! There is a good chance at a few inches of snow on Friday am. The 18z GFS gave the LSV 2-4 inches. Looking forward to a couple inches Friday and the mother load Tuesday.Most optimistic I've been all year. Always love the last train of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Friday will get us in the mood, but I really think Tuesday is our best chance. Still a week away so it could go down hill fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Come on guys, cheer up ! There is a good chance at a few inches of snow on Friday am. The 18z GFS gave the LSV 2-4 inches. I'm ok w that.....if it happens. 18z dried up some. I don't follow every model run off the cliff but the LSV has a great chance at getting thru the weekend with little to no snow. It has been consistent so maybe we juice it up a bit and get it done for most of us. At least it didn't go poof. Standing in line at the checkout line but fortunately there a lot of people in front of me. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 44 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: You called the miss for the weekend yesterday morning. Most of us were looking at a bunch of models with really pretty colors right over us, and you came in and dropped a 1 line zinger full of poop all over us. You ended up being spot on. All aboard for Tuesday! I'd be careful calling anything hit or miss 5 days in advance a sure thing. Contrarily, I'm certainly not putting all my chips on the third of three possible events slated to be around next Tuesday... on the Tuesday before haha. My current focus is on this Friday event, which is most certainly a viable one attm for especially I-80 south in PA. There could be some downslope/surface temp issues east of the mountains in the Sus Valley but most modeling is putting a stripe of snowfall across the state. One thing I probably should've brought up yesterday about the Sunday storm in mentioning the generally flat pattern across the country is the lack of amplification could actually favor a more suppressed solution with the fact that the 50/50 type low to the north forces the storm under us and it really doesn't have much ability to amplify and try to turn any corners. So it just slides out, leaving the position of the boundary the low runs on as where the precip sets up, which will probably be further south than the preceding Friday storm. However, the DC gang or even our southern tier could still be in play for that one still if the boundary edges back north, which could obviously come from future modeling runs weakening or moving out that 50/50 quicker. Progressive has been a thing this winter.. so I wouldn't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: I'd be careful calling anything hit or miss 5 days in advance a sure thing. Contrarily, I'm certainly not putting all my chips on the third of three possible events slated to be around next Tuesday... on the Tuesday before haha. My current focus is on this Friday event, which is most certainly a viable one attm for especially I-80 south in PA. There could be some downslope/surface temp issues east of the mountains in the Sus Valley but most modeling is putting a stripe of snowfall across the state. One thing I probably should've brought up yesterday about the Sunday storm in mentioning the generally flat pattern across the country is the lack of amplification could actually favor a more suppressed solution with the fact that the 50/50 type low to the north forces the storm under us and it really doesn't have much ability to amplify and try to turn any corners. So it just slides out, leaving the position of the boundary the low runs on as where the precip sets up, which will probably be further south than the preceding Friday storm. However, the DC gang or even our southern tier could still be in play for that one still if the boundary edges back north, which could obviously come from future modeling runs weakening or moving out that 50/50 quicker. Progressive has been a thing this winter.. so I wouldn't rule it out. Had to mention the southern tier to keep me in....didn't ya? ? I was nervous yesterday as I just didn't see how the spacing between vorts in addition to the 500 pattern just was not enough to allow Sunday to grow legs and fight the suppressive outcome. Yes it sure did look good in the digital snow maps for a time,and I'd love to see it come back but Friday's storm would need to change to see that happen....and I want nothing to mess up my 1" of snow. Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: I'd be careful calling anything hit or miss 5 days in advance a sure thing. Contrarily, I'm certainly not putting all my chips on the third of three possible events slated to be around next Tuesday... on the Tuesday before haha. My current focus is on this Friday event, which is most certainly a viable one attm for especially I-80 south in PA. There could be some downslope/surface temp issues east of the mountains in the Sus Valley but most modeling is putting a stripe of snowfall across the state. One thing I probably should've brought up yesterday about the Sunday storm in mentioning the generally flat pattern across the country is the lack of amplification could actually favor a more suppressed solution with the fact that the 50/50 type low to the north forces the storm under us and it really doesn't have much ability to amplify and try to turn any corners. So it just slides out, leaving the position of the boundary the low runs on as where the precip sets up, which will probably be further south than the preceding Friday storm. However, the DC gang or even our southern tier could still be in play for that one still if the boundary edges back north, which could obviously come from future modeling runs weakening or moving out that 50/50 quicker. Progressive has been a thing this winter.. so I wouldn't rule it out. You're absolutely right. 5 days out is an eternity, especially considering what happened in the past 2 days. Who knows what will happen...certainly not me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 And just like that. Go check out the 0z nam And everyone is jumping on the Tuesday PSU train. Any bets that Sunday comes back close enough to blow a kiss on they way by? Just unfreakin believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The nam sends Friday's storm way the f north. We probably get no snow from any of these storms but march at least looks average temp, if not below avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I'm sure the Long range NAM has the final track nailed down... Repeat after me... Relax ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: And just like that. Go check out the 0z nam And everyone is jumping on the Tuesday PSU train. Any bets that Sunday comes back close enough to blow a kiss on they way by? Just unfreakin believable. I never did like Friday for some reason, disappointed yes, surprised no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: I never did like Friday for some reason, disappointed yes, surprised no. And early in the 0z GFS looks to be coming north for #2. This is better than watching yoyos. Can't wait to see it through cause I keep hearing about all of next weeks potential. Lol Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: I never did like Friday for some reason, disappointed yes, surprised no. The 0z GFS is well south of the NAM & has 1-3 inches for The LSV for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z GFS is well south of the NAM & has 1-3 inches for The LSV for Friday. And look at #2. A noticeable tick north. Never would have thought that was coming but it came in stronger and was able to gain latitude. Couple more mb's and who knows.... thats enough for me to end on for the night. Have fun y'all. Can't wait for morning coffee. Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The 0z GFS & Canadian look good for the storm next Tuesday. The GFS has a low going into the Ohio valley that transfers to a low off of the VA capes which then moves slowly northeast along the coast & drops 8-10 inches of snow on most of CTP. The Canadian develops the low off the southest coast & takes it up the coast bringing also around 8-10 inches for most of us. This pattern is loaded & 1 of these storms in this window should hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 So the 06z GFS shows 14 inches (10:1) and 18 inches (Kuchera) in Tamaqua by noon on Wednesday? Do I believe it or not...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 9 hours ago, canderson said: The nam sends Friday's storm way the f north. We probably get no snow from any of these storms but march at least looks average temp, if not below avg. Ridge & Valleys and LSV go 0-3. Charlotte, NC ends with more snow than Harrisburg. And by March, me personally, I am ready for Spring. Nothing pisses me off more than 70 degree temps in February at the expense of a 40 degree March/April/May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z GFS & Canadian look good for the storm next Tuesday. The GFS has a low going into the Ohio valley that transfers to a low off of the VA capes which then moves slowly northeast along the coast & drops 8-10 inches of snow on most of CTP. The Canadian develops the low off the southest coast & takes it up the coast bringing also around 8-10 inches for most of us. This pattern is loaded & 1 of these storms in this window should hit us. I think that's the one that has the big upside for us. Lots of ways it can go sour, but if things come together that could deliver the goods in a big way. i don't like to be negative on here and I seldom am. Regarding Friday's system, it seems to me it will be a rain changing to snow type of deal down my way. As Nut can attest, we absolutely suck at those deals. It just happened here earlier this year. We're jaded with those systems for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 44 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: I think that's the one that has the big upside for us. Lots of ways it can go sour, but if things come together that could deliver the goods in a big way. i don't like to be negative on here and I seldom am. Regarding Friday's system, it seems to me it will be a rain changing to snow type of deal down my way. As Nut can attest, we absolutely suck at those deals. It just happened here earlier this year. We're jaded with those systems for sure. Agree 1000%. While we may have had a couple of anomalously good years down here, this winter is winter as we are used to down here. We never have and never will do well w/ these kind of systems that need "cool first". Overnight shifts continued to bounce around and north trend continued as expected. My snow hole theory down here is looking great, and it looks like a CPA special...and I just cant wait to hear folks in the middle mehing there 3-5" and the I'll pass...not enough. And yeah....what the heck, next weeks 500 looks better for amplification...somewhere on the east coast (yeah I saw the 6z goofus and it shellackin the LSV. Just let me empty the digital snow guage from this weeks "fun" first. Snakebit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Agree 1000%. While we may have had a couple of anomalously good years down here, this winter is winter as we are used to down here. We never have and never will do well w/ these kind of systems that need "cool first". Overnight shifts continued to bounce around and north trend continued as expected. My snow hole theory down here is looking great, and it looks like a CPA special...and I just cant wait to hear folks in the middle mehing there 3-5" and the I'll pass...not enough. And yeah....what the heck, next weeks 500 looks better for amplification...somewhere on the east coast (yeah I saw the 6z goofus and it shellackin the LSV. Just let me empty the digital snow guage from this weeks "fun" first. Snakebit And on cue, as you were typing your response, Horst was saying that Friday looks warmer (and wetter) in Lanco with snow possibilities now north of the turnpike. These are the systems that historically have whitened areas from Harrisburg on north while I've cried in my puddles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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