AllWeather Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, djr5001 said: I noticed same thing with 12z GFS and NAM - they seem to really struggle with being too cold for highs when we have the downsloping west/northwesterly winds and full sunshine and too warm with the east/southeasterly flow that gives us the overcast and foggy kind of days around here far too often. The one difference that I see with this event compared to February is that this one does not appear to have a warm front ticking back north around onset of precip which is what really screwed the York, part of Lancaster, and more southern areas from seeing the changeover in time. The downside to that positive though, is PWAT values for this event look to be much lower (nearly half) of what they were last month. The dynamics combined with the high PWAT are pretty much the only way that some spots around Harrisburg were able to even get close to the 5" mark in recovery of what was lost precip wise prior to the changeover. Good point. To play devil's advocate to this point, part of the reason temps may not have dropped as fast in early Feb could have been due to the higher PWAT/Td air. Drier dewps could support faster drops to wetbulbing. Current dewps are in the teens/20s. That should support faster cooling and argue against my initial theory of temps taking too long too cool. We had to wait for drier dewps to advect in. We already have the dry dewps and wet bulb temps are sub-freezing already in NW PA. I can't recall where it was for the early Feb event at this point, but I do remember sitting there hitting refresh on obs waiting for Tds to drop from the 40s to L30s overnight as the precip arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Horst: "Tuesday could be the real deal" Initiate tingling feeling... Consult your doctor if tingling feeling doesn't go away after 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro continues the theme with a better look for the southern tier for the AM. Actually took a look at the handle of temps in the area at the 18z hour, and it's certainly fairing the best among the global models with the handling of the temps, and it still gets some modest accumulation down into the LSV and near the MD line. Down my way, it's not doing many favors and providing a sharp cut off to totals south of I-70 which has been my feeling all along. That being said, the conditions for a moderate, plowable snow are well within reason for the areas west of the 81 corridor out in the Laurels up to I-80. One of the biggest takeaways for sure is the PVA for tomorrow afternoon will come in like a battering ram and snow squalls are highly likely and could out perform the main event in some areas, at least IMO. This is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Horst: "Tuesday could be the real deal" Initiate tingling feeling... All-In. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Consult your doctor if tingling feeling doesn't go away after 6 hours. Nah, man, this doesn't work, because you consult your doctor and he starts ordering tests. One day you think you're just excited and tingling everywhere, and the next day you've got spinal stenosis and spend the rest of your life in between stretches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Horst: "Tuesday could be the real deal" Initiate tingling feeling... I just read Eric's District 8 forecast that I can access since I was part of working with him on PennDot while I was at school. He's saying Tuesday event could easily be the big event with the players on the table. I'm very intrigued now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I just read Eric's District 8 forecast that I can access since I was part of working with him on PennDot while I was at school. He's saying Tuesday event could easily be the big event with the players on the table. I'm very intrigued now. Just peering at the initial stuff from the 12z Euro, he might be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, AllWeather said: Just peering at the initial stuff from the 12z Euro, he might be right. It's pretty sweet to look at. Whenever he's hopping on to something noteworthy, you best believe I'm tagging along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Good point. To play devil's advocate to this point, part of the reason temps may not have dropped as fast in early Feb could have been due to the higher PWAT/Td air. Drier dewps could support faster drops to wetbulbing. Current dewps are in the teens/20s. That should support faster cooling and argue against my initial theory of temps taking too long too cool. We had to wait for drier dewps to advect in. We already have the dry dewps and wet bulb temps are sub-freezing already in NW PA. I can't recall where it was for the early Feb event at this point, but I do remember sitting there hitting refresh on obs waiting for Tds to drop from the 40s to L30s overnight as the precip arrived. Yes. I remember with certainty that my dew was in the upper 30s and low 40s that evening. I was very discouraged when I was sitting at 52/42, knowing that we had a lot of work to do down this way. My dew right now is 26. Big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just read several pages to to get caught up, nice analysis guys. Damn work getting in the way of storm(s) 4 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Yes. I remember with certainty that my dew was in the upper 30s and low 40s that evening. I was very discouraged when I was sitting at 52/42, knowing that we had a lot of work to do down this way. My dew right now is 26. Big difference. I was wondering with the temperature we're having today what we would lose, but it sounds like we may be alright. and my kid won't be leaving the Ville until 430ish tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z Euro is crushing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Best words to hear. Euro crushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 33 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Euro continues the theme with a better look for the southern tier for the AM. Actually took a look at the handle of temps in the area at the 18z hour, and it's certainly fairing the best among the global models with the handling of the temps, and it still gets some modest accumulation down into the LSV and near the MD line. Down my way, it's not doing many favors and providing a sharp cut off to totals south of I-70 which has been my feeling all along. That being said, the conditions for a moderate, plowable snow are well within reason for the areas west of the 81 corridor out in the Laurels up to I-80. One of the biggest takeaways for sure is the PVA for tomorrow afternoon will come in like a battering ram and snow squalls are highly likely and could out perform the main event in some areas, at least IMO. This is fun. This is great! Thank you for helping to wake up the forum. Like stated above. The journey is sometimes better than the destination. I'm in and gonna ride it out win lose or nada. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 46 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Consult your doctor if tingling feeling doesn't go away after 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Man this thread today is awesome. Red taggers, you guys rock. Thanks for all your analysis. Question re: Tuesday. What is in place that'll allow it to get captured in time to ride the coast to bring CPA into the snow? To me I can't see anything that doens't cause this to capture later and leave out anyone not from say Long Island northeast. I'll hang up and listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, canderson said: Man this thread today is awesome. Red taggers, you guys rock. Thanks for all your analysis. Question re: Tuesday. What is in place that'll allow it to get captured in time to ride the coast to bring CPA into the snow? To me I can't see anything that doens't cause this to capture later and leave out anyone not from say Long Island northeast. I'll hang up and listen. The main driver for that occur is the northern stream vort digging into the US. If that energy can dig far enough south to begin phasing with the southern stream energy around Tennessee/NC latitude, that would allow for an earlier capture and tuck into the coast. Some models are pretty close to doing that, and even when they don't, your area still can see snow. The best shot at major accumulations greater than 12" are more likely up across NE PA up into New England at this rate due to the bombing low and increased interaction with the northern stream north of our latitude. Still doesn't mean we can get whacked like that, just probably a slightly better shot to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 That makes sense, thank you! CTP is very unimpressed here for tomorrow; calling for <1" and wet roads only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, canderson said: That makes sense, thank you! CTP is very unimpressed here for tomorrow; calling for <1" and wet roads only. I almost feel the short term guidance are sticking the heavier axis of snow to the SW now with areas out towards Johnstown getting hit good, but heads southeast into the PA line. That would be a bad omen for areas north of the pike further toward the east. You can kind of see it here on the latest HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Honestly outside of the ridges South of 80 this will be a nuisance. Tuesday is our golden goose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I almost feel the short term guidance are sticking the heavier axis of snow to the SW now with areas out towards Johnstown getting hit good, but heads southeast into the PA line. That would be a bad omen for areas north of the pike further toward the east. You can kind of see it here on the latest HRRR. Ruh roh northern peeps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Ruh roh northern peeps.... I've seen this story so many times it's not even funny. If there's a way to get screwed, my area can find it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Voyager said: I've seen this story so many times it's not even funny. If there's a way to get screwed, my area can find it... My forecast is looking shotty now, but for a completely different reason. We shall see. I hope you see at least a few inches from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'm in conference tournament hermit mode so not gonna get too beat up if I don't have three inches of slush to clean up. Tuesday is my last stand! Let's do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: I almost feel the short term guidance are sticking the heavier axis of snow to the SW now with areas out towards Johnstown getting hit good, but heads southeast into the PA line. That would be a bad omen for areas north of the pike further toward the east. You can kind of see it here on the latest HRRR. 18z GFS and RGEM says your forecast is fine. Hope so anyway Cant imagine to much wiggle left inside 12 hrs from start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 They keep upping the totals..high limit now 9" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Great eye candy of GFS RUNSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Great eye candy of GFS RUN Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I'll say. 2 storm totals approaching 2' for your locale on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Reached 67 here today, sitting right on 60 now. I only need a 25 degree drop to enter the discussion for snow overnight and tomorrow morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, maytownpawx said: Reached 67 here today, sitting right on 60 now. I only need a 25 degree drop to enter the discussion for snow overnight and tomorrow morning... Luckily, your dewp is in the 20s. Temps will fall quickly as we saturate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, AllWeather said: Luckily, your dewp is in the 20s. Temps will fall quickly as we saturate. Yep, I was agreeing with you on that earlier this afternoon. That's a big difference from 2/9 when my dew was in the low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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