Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 lol...someone started a thread in the NYC forum "the blizzard of 2017. 1'-2' looking likely" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: The main driver for that occur is the northern stream vort digging into the US. If that energy can dig far enough south to begin phasing with the southern stream energy around Tennessee/NC latitude, that would allow for an earlier capture and tuck into the coast. Some models are pretty close to doing that, and even when they don't, your area still can see snow. The best shot at major accumulations greater than 12" are more likely up across NE PA up into New England at this rate due to the bombing low and increased interaction with the northern stream north of our latitude. Still doesn't mean we can get whacked like that, just probably a slightly better shot to the NE. I'm still leery for now of the all out coastal solution on Tuesday however I'd say it is a good bet that the northern branch system diving in will establish an area of lighter snows over PA regardless as it interacts and transfers. The pattern alignment looks nice, with a good amplification as well. That southern shortwave just barely gets out of ahead of the northern branch shortwave by the looks of it (in the case of the 12z Euro).. so it looks more like a partial and/or late phase. The result is the focus of the potentially more significant precip with the coastal storm being in the eastern third of PA. This new 18z GFS just in looks like it phased the shortwaves... with the coastal low actually being yanked NNW from off the Carolina coasts to the Delmarva coastline and a more direct central/eastern PA strike. That'd be a pretty good solution haha. Gonna be an active several days... some shades of March 99 and 2007 if we can pull off both these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 That Tuesday storm western edge cutoff is gonna scare the hell out of me here. I have this nagging sense PHL might get hammered and MDT shutout. Here is hoping it bombs in time to nail us all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, canderson said: That Tuesday storm western edge cutoff is gonna scare the hell out of me here. I have this nagging sense PHL might get hammered and is shutout. Maybe so...but they might also rain while we snow, so there's that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The means are very solidSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 33 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Maybe so...but they might also rain while we snow, so there's that too. That'd be a hoot. When is the last time that happened, 1936? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 45 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Reached 67 here today, sitting right on 60 now. I only need a 25 degree drop to enter the discussion for snow overnight and tomorrow morning... I actually feel safe enough to chuckle at that..... for now. GREAT GFS RUN. Wowzers!!! Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 36 minutes ago, canderson said: That Tuesday storm western edge cutoff is gonna scare the hell out of me here. I have this nagging sense PHL might get hammered and MDT shutout. Here is hoping it bombs in time to nail us all verbatim 6" line on goofus is basically from Just east of KPT to western Tioga. As modeled...I'll take my chances (and 15" and deal w/ it. As Mag suggested, looks like partial capture and cleaner transfer. If trends hold, I wouldnt be surprised if some nice numbers show up in the next few runs. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I made the drive up to Huntingdon county this evening, and the temperature is currently 49. It was 62 when I left Wertzville at 6:00. Temp seems to be falling steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: I made the drive up to Huntingdon county this evening, and the temperature is currently 49. It was 62 when I left Wertzville at 6:00. Temp seems to be falling steadily. 55 here. Dropping at about 2 degrees/hour. Faster descent once precip arrives...will it be enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Been snowing for a little bit but just starting to pick up now. Temp 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Been snowing for a little bit but just starting to pick up now. Temp 35 Wanna borrow my shovel? It's very dusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Been snowing for a little bit but just starting to pick up now. Temp 35 I'm shocked! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Dewpoint of 22 is a lot better to work then the dewpoint in that February storm. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Coming down pretty good now...ground is covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 26 minutes ago, canderson said: Wanna borrow my shovel? It's very dusty. No. Hold onto it. If we strikeout here, I'm coming over and beating you with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Coming down pretty good now...ground is covered. Good luck man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Atomixwx said: No. Hold onto it. If we strikeout here, I'm coming over and beating you with it. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Sprinkles of rain up here in Billtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 No. Hold onto it. If we strikeout here, I'm coming over and beating you with it.HahahaSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Waiting for precip to drop down to my level, as it's mostly residing on the I-80 corridor attm. Temp down to 42ºF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Good luck man. Thanks..Were off to a quick start so far. Temp 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: No. Hold onto it. If we strikeout here, I'm coming over and beating you with it. Sweet, I've had enough of this new admin anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 44 and dry here, but precip/virga to my north toward WB/Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Nothing here yet... Radar looks like we should be getting slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 24 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Thanks..Were off to a quick start so far. Temp 33 Fortunately it looks like I-80's still okay so far, still looks wet on the 511 cams I looked at.. even the Rockton mountain one near the Penfield exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 just started to snow here. very light. Here's hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Sitting right at 50 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1.5" as of 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Holy GFS run. C/E PA get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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