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March medium/long range disco

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That gefs would be a super weenie run of the year even in mid winter. For march that's just wow. Lucy dipped the football in gold, studded it with diamonds, and laced it with a string of pearls. Must resist temptation lol. 

6 days away... 6 days away... 6 days away...  WE ALL  should know better

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That gefs would be a super weenie run of the year even in mid winter. For march that's just wow. Lucy dipped the football in gold, studded it with diamonds, and laced it with a string of pearls. Must resist temptation lol. 

I'm becoming a little interested in the friday deal. Euro was a stripe of just a little bit more than conversational snow. It got no mention last night for obvious reasons. It has trended south and colder across all guidance. The French are on our side. Maybe a little appetizer before lobster and steak. 

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_102_0000.gif

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That gefs would be a super weenie run of the year even in mid winter. For march that's just wow. Lucy dipped the football in gold, studded it with diamonds, and laced it with a string of pearls. Must resist temptation lol. 

what is the biggest worry about the weekend storm. Southern trend where we get high clouds and DT gets snow?

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

6 days away... 6 days away... 6 days away...  WE ALL  should know better

we should....but thats no fun....

This is going to be a tough week....no matter the outcome.

worry now....or cry later.

Nut

 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm becoming a little interested in the friday deal. Euro was a stripe of just a little bit more than conversational snow. It got no mention last night for obvious reasons. It has trended south and colder across all guidance. The French are on our side. Maybe a little appetizer before lobster and steak. 

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_102_0000.gif

That clipper is a good bit south of where it was a couple of days ago.  The last clipper got squashed so far south that it was nothing.  Maybe the perfect amount of squash this time.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm becoming a little interested in the friday deal. Euro was a stripe of just a little bit more than conversational snow. It got no mention last night for obvious reasons. It has trended south and colder across all guidance. The French are on our side. Maybe a little appetizer before lobster and steak. 

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_102_0000.gif

saw it on the GFS and given the trends i was wondering the same thing.

Everyone loves an appetizer....

Nut

 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ji said:

what is the biggest worry about the weekend storm. Southern trend where we get high clouds and DT gets snow?

I still worry about north trend more.  gonna be a long week...I wish this was a Friday type deal. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

6 days away... 6 days away... 6 days away...  WE ALL  should know better

Dude, we all do know. The majority of posters have been doing this for 5-10+ years. Are you telling us to not discuss model output? These kinds of posts are stale and tiresome. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Dude, we all do know. The majority of posters have been doing this for 5-10+ years. Are you telling us to not discuss model output? These kinds of posts are stale and tiresome. 

lol...this coming from the guy whos handle is ridingthemodelwiththemostsnow

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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

That 144-hr 06Z map caused a chuckle with the high placement and look of the weak lows. Of course, it's a different evolution before and a different outcome after this frame. But, it's a great frame.  Thanks, Ray Martin, for the second map. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

CurrSur-2200Z-16Feb03.jpg

Such a pretty map.  I love actually having the high pressure where we need it when we need it.  So glad this isn't looking like it'll be a cold chasing precip deal.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm becoming a little interested in the friday deal. Euro was a stripe of just a little bit more than conversational snow. It got no mention last night for obvious reasons. It has trended south and colder across all guidance. The French are on our side. Maybe a little appetizer before lobster and steak. 

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_102_0000.gif

yea I think yesterday I said we might not want to sleep on that but its kinda been passed over given the bigger threats behind it and its been slowly bleeding towards a legit threat for days.

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

what is the biggest worry about the weekend storm. Southern trend where we get high clouds and DT gets snow?

The biggest worry is a function of it being a west to east gradient system it won't have the same coverage of snowfall as an amplified system coming up the coast would.  So I think the way we lose is if the system is weaker and so has a less robust precip shield making the hit zone even narrower and then it gets suppressed just south.  A stronger system would be less likely to stay south so those two kind of go together.  I am NOT saying it cant end up north but weaker and then south would be a bigger worry IMO.  That includes the idea it shears out completely, and there are a couple GEFS and about 10 EPS members that do that, have no storm at all just squash it like a few others this year.  But were getting close to the time where the threat of a complete washout is going down.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Posted
1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It keeps with winter's theme and evaporates, trends north or trends south or jumps over us and then moves north.  

It dives down NW to SE with a stripe of snow missing to our west then south, then it bombs off the coast and hooks back in from the SE to NW but too late for us and stalls over New England for days burrying Philly north. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, we all do know. The majority of posters have been doing this for 5-10+ years. Are you telling us to not discuss model output? These kinds of posts are stale and tiresome. 

Agree and I hope I'm not coming off that way, because I definitely don't mean you guys shouldn't be discussing model output.  Hell, it's the only reason I come in here anymore.  I'm just skeptical and now cynical af.   This winter has done a number on me.     I'm like the gilted lover.  A new suitor comes along and promises this time it's gonna be real and I brush him off even though he's probably gonna be the best thing ever for me. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The biggest worry is a function of it being a west to east gradient system it won't have the same coverage of snowfall as an amplified system coming up the coast would.  So I think the way we lose is if the system is weaker and so has a less robust precip shield making the hit zone even narrower and then it gets suppressed just south.  A stronger system would be less likely to stay south so those two kind of go together.  I am NOT saying it cant end up north but weaker and then south would be a bigger worry IMO.  That includes the idea it shears out completely, and there are a couple GEFS and about 10 EPS members that do that, have no storm at all just squash it like a few others this year.  But were getting close to the time where the threat of a complete washout is going down.  

This. W-E gradient storms don't cover much latitude. The stripes are narrow and the winners are bunched together. We all know we can miss this one north or south with ease. But we can also get striped. And that's all there is to track for the most part unless things start morphing into something more amplified. 

The upside this go around is a fairly strong thermal gradient and an area of dynamic lift in the battleground. Whomever does get striped would most likely see some pretty intense rates and those that do would be fairly close to the R-S line. This could be a subforum divider, a total win, or an abject failure. For now we look ok. All we can do is watch it unfold. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Agree and I hope I'm not coming off that way, because I definitely don't mean you guys shouldn't be discussing model output.  Hell, it's the only reason I come in here anymore.  I'm just skeptical and now cynical af.   This winter has done a number on me.     I'm like the gilted lover.  A new suitor comes along and promises this time it's gonna be real and I brush him off even though he's probably gonna be the best thing ever for me. 

You have to admit, we have already broken new ground with this one. It crossed the 10 day, 9 day, 8 day, and now 7 day barrier. If any storm is going to gash deep into the weenie soul, this one is poised to do it. But then the next one will save us. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Such a pretty map.  I love actually having the high pressure where we need it when we need it.  So glad this isn't looking like it'll be a cold chasing precip deal.  

Anytime we have a low slide through the Tn Valley with a massive cold dome over the ne, I think about PD II.

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

You have to admit, we have already broken new ground with this one. It crossed the 10 day, 9 day, 8 day, and now 7 day barrier. If any storm is going to gash deep into the weenie soul, this one is poised to do it. But then the next one will save us. 

If it's there in 2 days, I'll join your side.  My pithy comments help me stay divested 

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You have to admit, we have already broken new ground with this one. It crossed the 10 day, 9 day, 8 day, and now 7 day barrier. If any storm is going to gash deep into the weenie soul, this one is poised to do it. But then the next one will save us. 

Yep, 6 days and counting down the lives of the groundhog!

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