Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,499
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    binbisso
    Newest Member
    binbisso
    Joined
CoastalWx

Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, toller65 said:


Storm total QPF in the 1-1.5 inch range for PWM?

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 

Yes, See map above

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it's true ... tomorrow's nuisance but all welcomed preview snows ... sort of got meshed into the later Sunday deal as this fast flow is really firing the Sunday night short wave out of a canon out west and it catches up and blends into the same stew there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From a distance it looks like the same energy.
Love the poo-pooing on a 6" event with high winds. Adding the possible 1-3" pre-explosion morphing into coastal. Very impactful.  
I'd give my left n*t to get that here!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunday is going to have some weird meso things happen. Check out the meso low in the GOM with a tongue of warmer air. That sort of stays there and plays with cstl Maine and MA. Might have some weenie CJ snow prior to the WAA stuff Sunday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday is going to have some weird meso things happen. Check out the meso low in the GOM with a tongue of warmer air. That sort of stays there and plays with cstl Maine and MA. Might have some weenie CJ snow prior to the WAA stuff Sunday.

You also have LL convergence from that...like NE winds there while they are more northerly over interior.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just wait for the Euro. Wheelhouse.  I will buy.

The Euro had me borrowing my neighbors bucket loader.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The Euro had me borrowing my neighbors bucket loader.

Not fully buying in quite yet - VD2015 trauma makes me overly cautious.  Still, I'm glad the Governor sent us home early yesterday, as I was able to fix my snowblower and that might not have happened in the dark.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You also have LL convergence from that...like NE winds there while they are more northerly over interior.

Yeah that's what I mean, NE over the water and then N over the coastline and inland. I think the models are way too warm again inland on Sunday. Maybe Ray can get some twister time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One "event" with (apparently) two areas of focus (trying not to misuse any meteorological terms here).

So, for those of us whose worlds begin and end with SNE, what are we looking at in our collective back yard (CT, MA, RI)?

Then there is the very interesting hit that Maine may take on Monday. 

I want to hear about both, but its getting so muddled in here that I'm having trouble following what's what. Maybe we really another thread for SNE Sunday portion of this. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The CMC almost looks like it wants to do a mini-loop in the GOM 

I think that's what happened Dec. 30-31, 1962, when BGR got 29.5" with gusts to 60 and Orono-Old Town measured 40".  (And NNJ had gusts go 70 that uprooted bare-limbed oaks from frozen soil.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah that Ukie run is wild...I'm not really buying it yet though. I still think something a little later is going to happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that Ukie run is wild...I'm not really buying it yet though. I still think something a little later is going to happen.

Not to toot horns ... really, but... this thing is it's own destiny here. 

If it comes in and is more natively powerful to its self, it will countermand the ridging in the south and carve out a destiny further and further SW as we were discussing earlier.  

I don't have a problem with this either - as I said earlier, it comes down to what this thing can do without the assistance of more S stream to give it a southern(er) route.  It's just that we haven't seen that specific aspect of more power modeled  - perhaps this is the first? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to toot horns ... really, but... this thing is it's own destiny here. 

If it comes in and is more natively powerful to its self, it will countermand the ridging in the south and carve out a destiny further and further SW as we were discussing earlier.  

I don't have a problem with this either - as I said earlier, it comes down to what this thing can do without the assistance of more S stream to give it a southern(er) route.  It's just that we haven't seen that specific aspect of more power modeled  - perhaps this is the first? 

Well we did see it on yesterday's 12z Euro and also on today's 12z JMA....admittedly the JMA isn't our first model of choice. Perhaps the Euro will trend back a bit deeper like yesterday...it backed off just a bit on 00z.

 

When it's a really close call, I tend to favor the more "climo preferred" option...which would be Gulf of Maine centric and that means we're probably too far SW for the real goods. We could certainly get the scraps from the backlash in that scenario, so I wouldn't be talking about a sunny day on Monday either. :lol:

 

Anyways, yeah...it will be interesting. The dynamics are so potent that it's always something that can surprise even the most experienced/seasoned forecasters...we've all seen extreme deepening upper levels do some strange things. Like they have a mind of their own.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

Looks like a condo collapser over interior SNE up into your hood....though it would go powdery pretty fast I think when it bombs.

 

These models also may be overdoing the sfc warmth....31-33F could easily be 27F.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×