Warm Nose Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 56/41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Kleimax said: This is by far the most aggressive map I've seen. Any thoughts on this lol 1) It looks exactly like the 12z GFS 2) It will be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The dew points and where the baroclinoc zone is are more important then surface temps. Temps will tank when precip starts and if the boundary is close the low will pull in the cold as it develops. I'm not saying temps are irrelevant as they could be indicating those other two factors are trending worse too but surface temps right now aren't the most important thing to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, Kleimax said: This is by far the most aggressive map I've seen. Any thoughts on this lol They are pretty big on hype. And that map is kinda a carbon copy of the 12z 4K nam which was the snowiest run of the day so fits their MO. Kinda like jb. Take snowiest guidance you can and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Westminster - 50/42 NNE6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They are pretty big on hype. And that map is kinda a carbon copy of the 12z 4K nam which was the snowiest run of the day so fits their MO. Kinda like jb. Take snowiest guidance you can and run with it. The only spots I'd question are the southernmost C and E regions. I don't think it's too over-hyped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The dew points and where the baroclinoc zone is are more important then surface temps. Temps will tank when precip starts and if the boundary is close the low will pull in the cold as it develops. I'm not saying temps are irrelevant as they could be indicating those other two factors are trending worse too but surface temps right now aren't the most important thing to look at. This is such a close call for us. My gut tells me we come up short although I do think will get at least 2, just not feeling 5 or more. Hope I'm wrong. If thingso do break more favorable this thing can go to town for 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 HRRR is a slight improvement over prior runs, but it also shows me getting 2" of snow before the surface temp reaches freezing, so I'm skeptical of the total it gives my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, HighStakes said: This is such a close call for us. My gut tells me we come up short although I do think will get at least 2, just not feeling 5 or more. Hope I'm wrong. If thingso do break more favorable this thing can go to town for 3-4 hours. This is the type of thing that in a normal winter goes our way and we end up with 6". But this year even up here the marginal coin toss type events seem to flip the wrong way so I'm pessimistic also. I'd be shocked if we don't see snow at all but I'm thinking lower end not higher here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 62/43. got a ways to go inside the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 When I blend the High Rez NAM, regular NAM and GFS, it seems the snow should break out around 3 am N. Carroll County and then across the NW sides of DC and Balto. around 4 pm. My hunch is that snow should accumulate easily on trees/lawns/decks and perhaps sidewalks. Accumulation on streets may be happening for only an hour or two from 6 am until about 8 am. Northern Carroll, Balto. and Harford counties could rack up 3 to 6 or even 7 inches on trees and plants. Thinking about deep moisture on the 700 mb charts, it should over and done by about 10 am. Squalls later in the day will deepen the snowy mood. I think rush hour will be screwed up more by people doing goofy things and not so much by streets being slippery and dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Fozz said: HRRR is a slight improvement over prior runs, but it also shows me getting 2" of snow before the surface temp reaches freezing, so I'm skeptical of the total it gives my area. It's going to be snowing very hard when it flips. It will accumulate at 33-34 given the rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I appreciate this forum. So glad I came across all of you over the last couple of years. Can somebody give me their thoughts of accumulations: Arlington: Fairfax: Loudoun: I'm summizing 1-2 at "VERY" best with maybe 3 in Loudoun if it booms???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's going to be snowing very hard when it flips. It will accumulate at 33-34 given the rates Yup. Column cooling faster on models then surface temps, and with the amount of qpf coming in, we should be snowing at 34. I'm still positive we see at least 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 52/36 here, after a high of 64 around 1:00 p.m. Colder air banking up nicely against the back-side of the developing low, ready to wrap in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: I appreciate this forum. So glad I came across all of you over the last couple of years. Can somebody give me their thoughts of accumulations: Arlington: Fairfax: Loudoun: I'm summizing 1-2 at "VERY" best with maybe 3 in Loudoun if it booms???? Arlington is an inch at most. Fairfax the same. Loudoun perhaps a dusting-1.5 inches. If the changeover happens quicker perhaps more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 HRRRRRRRR ( ) just took a huge jump in snowfall regionally. I never place a lot of faith in these rapid update models until I see them make a big change. This was a big change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: HRRRRRRRR ( ) just took a huge jump in snowfall regionally. I never place a lot of faith in these rapid update models until I see them make a big change. This was a big change Where you getting the 22z so fast? Trop tidbits is only on hour 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, mappy said: Yup. Column cooling faster on models then surface temps, and with the amount of qpf coming in, we should be snowing at 34. I'm still positive we see at least 3" I was thinking 3-6 and maybe even leaving 4-8 here with my 1050 elevation after the 12z suite. Not sure what your elevation is. But the 18z stuff was concerning a bit. We have no wiggle room for a north trend or even a wiggle. Right now I'd probably still stick with 3-6 but lean lower rather then higher but the 18z guidance has me spooked because it went the wrong way after 12z looked better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 HRRR has been doing well this winter I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Kleimax said: HRRR has been doing well this winter I think It was the HRRR that convinced me in the Feb 3, 2014 storm that the writing was on the wall and I'd get mostly rain, and it also did well with the KU storm 10 days later. I think it's become a very good model lately and though it's not perfect, it gives good hints about what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: HRRRRRRRR ( ) just took a huge jump in snowfall regionally. I never place a lot of faith in these rapid update models until I see them make a big change. This was a big change That would be good. I've noticed the hrrr at range tends to over amp. Remember early on the night before the Jan 6 storm it looks good. One run had 2" all the way up here with more to come. Then when it got around 12 hours it caught on and pulled the rug out. It's been very good within 8-10 hours. So so 10-12 and way off beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Where you getting the 22z so fast? Trop tidbits is only on hour 2 Maybe he has WxBell? Anyways, the 22z run does look slightly cooler at 5z Thursday, so I guess that's a good sign when every tenth of a degree matters IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 49/37 here. Seems I'm running colder then all around me. I guess my elevation helping. Again it's the second number we want to be more worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: 49/37 here. Seems I'm running colder then all around me. I guess my elevation helping. Again it's the second number we want to be more worried about. 52/41 here (though my local wxbug may be a few degrees too cool, but that's what it's saying). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I was looking at the difference between the 20 and 21 on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 22z looks a bit colder, but also drier on the backend. I'm not too worried about its precip this far out, because it's going to change multiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Fozz said: 52/41 here (though my local wxbug may be a few degrees too cool, but that's what it's saying). Down to 48 been dropping fast but the dp less so. I'd rather the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 And now the 22 early on looks to be a major reduction. Probably should wait till it finishes tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, Fozz said: Maybe he has WxBell? Anyways, the 22z run does look slightly cooler at 5z Thursday, so I guess that's a good sign when every tenth of a degree matters IMBY. Being totally honestly here... See VERY little difference between 21z and 22z. Definitely not a huge difference. Thought worst eta: just saw winterwxluver comment. Makes more sense now. I was like am I missing something lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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