UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, snowheavyattimes said: Forky is like Tom Brady. Never bet against him. I think I threw up in my mouth a little... no offense to forky.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 4k Nam is a LHV Cush job, SE Orange, rockland, westchester, outnumbered get crushed edit: and NNJ Harriman. Home of the crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said: Forky is like Tom Brady. Never bet against him. How about when he plays the Giants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Snow probably starts around the metro with temps between 34F-38F, then drops to the low/mid 20s when in the CCB.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: Snow probably starts around the metro with temps between 34F-38F, then drops to the low/mid 20s when in the CCB.... That's gonna be some PRETTY intense snow. Whiteout conditions most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER. * LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK...AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Hight of precip 850s drop to negative teens up here, and between -5 and -10 down to jersey... gonna get killer ratios during CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Seriously? https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Seriously? https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif 972?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Seriously? https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif That little kink in the 528 height line off the east coast is the same thing the GGEM showed at 12Z. Most likely why they are the two strongest with the LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The only real limiting factor to huge accums IMO is the speed of the system. It could crush at 2-3"/hr but only for 6 hours or so. This is going to haul NE. But in that period it will be insane. I would go with 8-14" areawide at this point with locally 18" where bands set up. Amazing to think this is 24 hours after it will be near 60 degrees. Something you would expect in Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Para Nam drops 12-16 areawide with proper ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The only real limiting factor to huge accums IMO is the speed of the system. It could crush at 2-3"/hr but only for 6 hours or so. This is going to haul NE. But in that period it will be insane. I would go with 8-14" areawide at this point with locally 18" where bands set up. Amazing to think this is 24 hours after it will be near 60 degrees. Something you would expect in Denver. Not that it's likely - ore even possible - but maybe something will happen to cause it to stick around a bit longer. That would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 If you take the RGEM combined with the para NAM the 18Z nam was a faster weaker outlier. Of course we are still out of the RGEM range and the off hour RGEM runs can sometimes be bad and I've been unimpressed with the para NAM overall so far. I'll be interested to see the 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The only real limiting factor to huge accums IMO is the speed of the system. It could crush at 2-3"/hr but only for 6 hours or so. This is going to haul NE. But in that period it will be insane. I would go with 8-14" areawide at this point with locally 18" where bands set up. Amazing to think this is 24 hours after it will be near 60 degrees. Something you would expect in Denver. I was wrong with my initial thoughts a few days ago. This is a solid 8-12 inches for the entire metro area and I'm pretty confident some folks will see over a foot of snow easily under the frontogen banding. The snowfall rates and upper level dynamics with this thing are going to be extremely intense. Like you said, this storm is very, very fast moving, like 6 hours for the "main show" then done. The new NAM has it completely over and out of my area in Rockland before noon on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you take the RGEM combined with the para NAM the 18Z nam was a faster weaker outlier. Of course we are still out of the RGEM range and the off hour RGEM runs can sometimes be bad and I've been unimpressed with the para NAM overall so far. I'll be interested to see the 18Z GFS The Euro seems to be the strongest model so far. It was several MB's deeper than the NAM I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Seriously? https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif If that were to verofy we would likely be looking at a severe blizzard in and around KNYC. Yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 To think we still have an entire 24+ hours of model runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: To think we still have an entire 24+ hours of model runs to go Thinking we see the shield expand further south as models more accurately predict surface temps. The speed of change over from rain/snow in coastal regions will be important for accums. Need temps to crash fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The nam is useless to me outside 24 hrs look at the changes from 06z to 18z haha Albany went from 20 to 4 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Allsnow said: The nam is useless to me outside 24 hrs look at the changes from 06z to 18z haha eh, just went from 2 feet to 6" in some places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 to think we will go from the upper 50's-low 60's to an epic snowstorm within hours is mind boggling. something you see in denver. who ever gets under those bands will rip for a few hours at 1-2" an hour, maybe 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Rgem is a beast and cold. Gives dca and bwi snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Rgem is a beast and cold. Gives dca and bwi snow I think RGEM is too far SE, It's pretty far off from euro, GFS, Nam edit: RGEM is also still outside of its wheelhouse, id expect to see it adjust to a euro/Nam track, central jersey to LHV looks locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Epic hit for 95 and the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Allsnow said: Epic hit for 95 and the coast What is keeping this from blizzard criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.