BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: 27 of 51 is just north of 50%. very good position to be in a week away from potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: very good position to be in a week away from potential If it were 27 of 51 that showed little snow would you feel it a very bad position to be in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 EPS mean is now up to 4.5 DC, 5 Baltimore and 6" up here. Best looking run in a long long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If it were 27 of 51 that showed little snow would you feel it a very bad position to be in? No. Usually a majority greater than 1" at lead is good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Any clusters of Lows ~hr200? Are we allowed to post low locations from EPS? I feel like I've seen them here before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Are we allowed to post low locations from EPS? I feel like I've seen them here before. probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: probably not In any event it's very similar to the 0z. Some LPs right where you want them, some very, very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: In any event it's very similar to the 0z. Some LPs right where you want them, some very, very close. Thanks! I guess I should look back a few pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Right now it looks like a solid 7 pattern. Not like feb 2010 or anything but light years better then anything we've had since the blizzard. If the on again off again blocking flexes just a bit in the long range it becomes an 8/9 easy. This is now only 72 hours. Needless to say we finally do get some help up near Greenland. that sets everything in motion after. That's a pretty good "it should snow soon" look right there. Everyone keeps bringing up the strat but it's hard to quantify its effects. Perhaps this decent look up too is the result and it's muted by the qbo but at least we're getting some help. Just conjecture. There are some signs the mjo might kick in our favor later in feb plus a PV split and displacement could aid more blocking. I think there is hope now this might reload not break down after week two but we have some good times before then so no reason to worry too much either way. Finally I could see this leading to a monster a few days later. If you loop the vortex in Canada is diving in as it pinwheels around the one rotating up the Atlantic side. And the GL ridging is relaxing but looks up hang in somewhat or possibly reload. Definitely can see how that diving in ends up an east coast bomb day 13-15. See what I see? PSU check the EPS low locations @ HR 306. Some broad support for what you said. You've got one hell of an eye for this stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS mean is now up to 4.5 DC, 5 Baltimore and 6" up here. Best looking run in a long long time. A little better at day 15 but slightly worse at day 10 than 0z. Not that any of it matters. We've seen this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 44 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Damn, I'd like to see that last map verify at lead. That's pretty sweet. Like a pendulum waiting to swing down. There is definitely some support in the EPS clusters for such a scenario. Big negative on the h5 mean diving into the Tennessee valley day 12. There is also a significant spike is snowfall days 12-15. The majority of the 4-6" on the mean comes day 8-10 and 12-15 split about evenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: PSU check the EPS low locations @ HR 306. Some broad support for what you said. You've got one hell of an eye for this stuff! Years and years of wasted time looking at analogs and pouring through snowfall data. It's not skill it's the result of obsession. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: A little better at day 15 but slightly worse at day 10 than 0z. Not that any of it matters. We've seen this before. We haven't seen this good a look this year. That doesn't mean we don't fail but this time we don't need good luck. We just need to not have bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 The trough day 10 has way better tilt for us then the early January miss. That was going to struggle to trend north given the flow. This has more potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: One last thing regarding the euro being south. Even the early Jan system came north late. But it trended way too south first. By the time it started the north bleed the axis of snow was Atlanta to the outer banks. That's no good. Having a model blast along the NC VA border day 8 is fine. If we get to day 4 and the consensus is Raleigh again then we might have to worry about suppression. Now, in general, what is it that causes suppression, exactly? The high pressure going top far south, or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now, in general, what is it that causes suppression, exactly? The high pressure going top far south, or something else? I think that's it, stronger blocking from higher pressure to increase the polar advection southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now, what is it that causes suppression, exactly? The high pressure going top far south, or something else? Suppression is really just saying the flow is being held down or muted by some feature. Typically a PV displaced south pressing down on the whole thing or blocking when the flow is flat will do it. Or blocking that is too strong or south, not all blocks are good. A system coming along when a string h5 low is blocked in off New England will get shunted south or sheared out when it hits the hostile flow behind the departing system. A system seems space and some ridging/return flow in front of it to amplify which pulls it poleward or in our terms turns it North up the coast. Think wave theory here. Put the waves to close together and they interfere with one another. That's just one example. The euro doesn't look suppressed to me actually. It just looks disorganized and it missed it's boat to phase so to speak and the stj wave was too weak to amp on its own. But looking at the flow at 500mb there is plenty of room for it to come north. Bob did an excellent job pointing that out earlier. The snow maps weren't pretty but it was a good run all in all imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We haven't seen this good a look this year. That doesn't mean we don't fail but this time we don't need good luck. We just need to not have bad luck. If Bwi could just pick up a couple inches with that clipper, I'd feel a whole lot more giddy going into February. Edit: Not saying we can't score one or more decent hits, but we would be trying to charter new territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now, what is it that causes suppression, exactly? The high pressure going top far south, or something else? Since there seems to be interest I'll start a thread later when I have a minute and point out some of these things you and others are asking about on h5 plots. That's really the level you want to look at to understand this. The surface is driven from what's going on above in most cases. Have to look at the steering currents. The surface meso features become important only once you have nailed down the synoptic scale main ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Since there seems to be interest I'll start a thread later when I have a minute and point out some of these things you and others are asking about on h5 plots. That's really the level you want to look at to understand this. The surface is driven from what's going on above in most cases. Have to look at the steering currents. The surface meso features become important only once you have nailed down the synoptic scale main ideas. Great idea! A little Mid-Atlantic met101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If Bwi could just pick up a couple inches with that clipper, I'd feel a whole lot more giddy going into February. Edit: Not saying we can't score one or more decent hits, but we would be trying to charter new territory. I'm not going to argue. Getting snow is never a bad sign imo. There are a few examples of virtually snowless years going into feb that turned good but they are few and far between so the odds are against us. But then again there aren't a whole lot of years this bad at this point in general so... the less scientific were due index would be in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not going to argue. Getting snow is never a bad sign imo. There are a few examples of virtually snowless years going into feb that turned good but they are few and far between so the odds are against us. But then again there aren't a whole lot of years this bad at this point in general so... the less scientific were due index would be in our favor. We desperately need to get something (as in, an accumulating snow) under our belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCAPS Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Great idea! A little Mid-Atlantic met101 Great! That's exactly what I need! I try and try to follow along but, for the most part I'm just kidding myself. I've actually considered taking an online met course. Clearly if one is on this blog, one is a major weather fanatic! Sign me up for the front of the classroom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 500mb looks similar to 12z so far. Still more like 18z yesterday than 0 or 6z. Just to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: There is definitely some support in the EPS clusters for such a scenario. Big negative on the h5 mean diving into the Tennessee valley day 12. There is also a significant spike is snowfall days 12-15. The majority of the 4-6" on the mean comes day 8-10 and 12-15 split about evenly. That's very positive to hear. I think the prospects of at least a significant snowfall ( > 4") sometime the next 2-3 weeks have seen some improvement today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Winner winner gfs shows snow at dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 18z gfs is more of a tn valley overrunning event than an actual storm. Vort is sheared pretty good. Not that I think shear/suppression on 8 day progs is something to worry about. Hasn't held all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs is more of a tn valley overrunning event than an actual storm. Vort is sheared pretty good. Not that I think shear/suppression on 8 day progs is something to worry about. Hasn't held all year. TropicaltidBits still drops 4" eta: deleting the op map at range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Since there seems to be interest I'll start a thread later when I have a minute and point out some of these things you and others are asking about on h5 plots. That's really the level you want to look at to understand this. The surface is driven from what's going on above in most cases. Have to look at the steering currents. The surface meso features become important only once you have nailed down the synoptic scale main ideas. I would appreciate this too, PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Of course I look dumb now because precip comes in waves with #2 amplifying. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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