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Wave 2, 1/7-8/17 Discussion/OBS


Rjay

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs u suck

IMG_0049.GIF

Clearly since NWS UPTON has been riding Goofus we will likely see WSW going up shortly ( Id guess by noon). Nothing wrong with Upton's approach, this is a very difficult storm to forcast. We are talking threading the needle here.

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I couldn't be happier. Definitely looks like an over-performer on the way. Nothing like a Saturday daytime storm. Coming down really nicely with good flakes on the UWS. Now I'm going to be out and about all over the city. Maybe back to sled in the park this afternoon if it really does accumulate.

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Just now, hooralph said:

I couldn't be happier. Definitely looks like an over-performer on the way. Nothing like a Saturday daytime storm. Coming down really nicely with good flakes on the UWS. Now I'm going to be out and about all over the city. Maybe back to sled in the park this afternoon if it really does accumulate.

Im allllll about the daytime storms!  I hate being up all night doing snow removal. I'm taking my time today and really enjoying it and taking it all in

rignt down the block from you moderate snow 

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Just now, nyblizz44 said:

Clearly since NWS UPTON has been riding Goofus we will likely see WSW going up shortly ( Id guess by noon). Nothing wrong with Upton's approach, this is a very difficult storm to forcast. We are talking threading the needle here.

yes but the signs were there,no one other myself and a few of us on this board rode this one to the finish line,since 2 days ago. got a lot of flak for it. but we can all enjoy this surprise now.^_^

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3 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

Clearly since NWS UPTON has been riding Goofus we will likely see WSW going up shortly ( Id guess by noon). Nothing wrong with Upton's approach, this is a very difficult storm to forcast. We are talking threading the needle here.

Nobody knows the difference in the public anyway. On the radio this morning I heard we're in a snow advisory, umm yeah those don't exist anymore

I don't even have a WWA and am bordering on moderate snow and a half inch already

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1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

Makes sense this trended westward.  Many in the southeast stayed rain/mix when they were progged to get snow, indicative of a westward movement.

Yeah my brother south of Charlotte ended up with a nasty ice storm. Was supposed to get 4-6" but it didn't change over until like 8am this morning. Not sure how areas around Norfolk that were supposed to see blizzard conditions are faring

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20 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 10 am here in Metuchen, we're officially beyond a coating and have 1/4" of new snow on the ground.  Snowing moderately now.  Radar looks great from a line from about New Hope to Parsippany and points S/E of there.  Wonder if that's going to be the demarcation between not much and significant snow.  

Had 1/4" at 10:00 am and now have 1/2" as of 10:30 am - that's 1/2" per hour rates under 20-25 DBZ radar echoes, which makes sense with moderate snowfall. Would get 3" or so at this rate, which I'd be very happy with. This snow, while very dry and powdery, is nowhere near as "fluffy" as yesterday's. 

We don't have large dendrites like we did for that system, which was about a 20:1 snow to liquid ratio; I'm guessing this snow is 10-12:1 ratio, which is kind of typical for this area. So, if we get 3" today at 10:1, that's actually twice as much mass of snow as the 2.75" of snow we got of 20:1 snow on Friday. But people only seem to care about depth of snow, so it'll "look" like the same amount of snow.

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Just now, ILoveWinter said:

Yea I was reading their discussions/obs last night and was clear that there were many disappointments, particularly from Charlotte up through Raleigh.  The northern and western parts of the state did well.

Unfortunately for them what was bad for snow down there is likely good for us. The New England mets were remarking several times about the warm air being further north than modeled down there, the low being stronger and potential for a further west outcome. Looking at radar, good echos are making it almost to the DE River-I'll likely bust low for most of us. 

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6 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said:

 

you are spot on man,this one might be one of the bigger surprises given the climo pattern we are in. 

 

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah my brother south of Charlotte ended up with a nasty ice storm. Was supposed to get 4-6" but it didn't change over until like 8am this morning. Not sure how areas around Norfolk that were supposed to see blizzard conditions are faring

 

Yea I was reading their discussions/obs last night and was clear that there were many disappointments, particularly from Charlotte up through Raleigh.  The northern and western parts of the state did well.

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS is awful with these Miller A storms, we've seen that again and again. It was easy to throw out once all the other guidance went west. 

Yes. But most here and all media gave it too much weight and were way too low with snow amounts.

Rgem has been locked in for many many runs. Never choose the GFS over that model.

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