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Model Mayhem II!

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Rain at 8,000 feet isn't too common.  And the lower level of thicknesses is below ground in the sierras-just saying.  I was at June lake once with a similar systeml. 30 inches in 6 hours fell.

 

 

edit:  I just checked the euro.  It's snow at the sierra ski areas...snow and gobs of it.

omg 5 inches/hr!!! my face would be stuck to the window or I would be outside just standing in it!! that the heaviest you have seen?

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ice1972

ice1972

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

omg 5 inches/hr!!! my face would be stuck to the window or I would be outside just standing in it!! that the heaviest you have seen?

It can be prolific up there on the west slopes of the Sierra in an eastern flow off the pacific.....June Lake is near Mammoth which is in my top 3 of Sierra ski resorts....tremendous snow

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some tasty GEFS members. There certainly exists a chance to miss, but my guess is ern areas will get some -SN out of one of these. 

My thoughts are towards the weekend.

The mean QPF has gotten worse from where it was on the 12z run yesterday when it was over 0.50" in SE areas.  It dropped on the 18z than the 00z.

Now we saw a slight uptick on the 06z run so we shall see if the uptick holds.

And I know the caveats of looking at QPF as an indicator.

I'll also be looking at the upper levels.

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

My thoughts are towards the weekend.

The mean QPF has gotten worse from where it was on the 12z run yesterday when it was over 0.50" in SE areas.  It dropped on the 18z than the 00z.

Now we saw a slight uptick on the 06z run so we shall see if the uptick holds.

And I know the caveats of looking at QPF as an indicator.

I'll also be looking at the upper levels.

Yeah Bob, I am encouraged based upon the differences between the 00z and 06z runs this morning at H5.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Pattern right now looks to certainly favor the southern areas.

So far this season and right up to this minute the pattern favored NNE-as it should early on.

 

The irony is, now we should start seeing the storm track shift south...and it shifts incredibly south and leaves SNE out again...    how bout some love for us peeps in the middle(SNE) too?????   

 

As I said yesterday, it would really suck if we Whiffed on both chances, and that's a distinct possibility.  Oh well, let's just hope that when these S/W's get better sampled there are some positive improvements for SNE.

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

So far this season and right up to this minute the pattern favored NNE-as it should early on.

 

The irony is, now we should start seeing the storm track shift south...and it shifts incredibly south and leaves SNE out again...    how bout some love for us peeps in the middle(SNE) too?????   

 

As I said yesterday, it would really suck if we Whiffed on both chances, and that's a distinct possibility.  Oh well, let's just hope that when these S/W's get better sampled there are some positive improvements for SNE.

I think there will be better results regarding the sampling of the shortwaves.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think there will be better results regarding the sampling of the shortwaves.

Oh there will be better results James...whether the better results are for us here in SNE is very iffy at this point however.

 

I always say that the weather is so Ironic, cuz many on here were saying/thinking that there will be chances for us going forward(and we are seeing chances that is very true), and that the farther south you go- especially NYC and south, the more difficult it will get with regard to winter storm chances.  Well wouldn't it be something, if the Mid Atlantic, yet again gets smoked(liked they did last year), and we get whiffed for the most part...how Ironic would that be???  I'm thinking that there is a very good chance that happens again.  Exactly the opposite of what we were thinking would happen......Irony at it's best!   

 

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So far this season and right up to this minute the pattern favored NNE-as it should early on.

 

The irony is, now we should start seeing the storm track shift south...and it shifts incredibly south and leaves SNE out again...    how bout some love for us peeps in the middle(SNE) too?????   

 

As I said yesterday, it would really suck if we Whiffed on both chances, and that's a distinct possibility.  Oh well, let's just hope that when these S/W's get better sampled there are some positive improvements for SNE.

1980s

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I don't have a problem with light snow from anything ... this is January. 

But the "specter" in ones mind that results from using phrases like "WAVE ONE one one" over does it - that's all.  It's a really a subjective argument (admittedly) over affectation development.  

Objectively, anything in the ~ Friday time frame is minor at best for us, barring something taking place that is not forecast-able - so no one could take trophies merely for being stubborn without supplying qualitative analysis that is cogent and logical, and makes it through basic Meteorological filtering...  I have not seen that. Right now, it's a flattening wave that is likely to continue to do so...due to the rigors of passing through a hostile flow that is too compressed and too fast - just as has been the case since ...Halloween for that matter.  

As for the Sunday time frame, ...that one (my opinion only) should be called a WAVE wave wave.  It has "somewhat" better mutli-member support from the GEFs, and the operationals I have seen across the pantheon are all nodding that there will be a wave there. It's really a question of amplitude and particulars in track that determine who gets what, if anything.  Right now I'd side on less as the "correction vector" mainly because the tenor of the season to do so is one that is fitting with the compressed/fast flow.. It's hard to maintain amplitude or get to amplitude (may be the better way to put it) with the flow actively acting as negative wave interference.  However, the usual caveat applies: that does not mean 'no amplitude'; smaller to midland events are favored.  A solution like the UKMET could happen, which would offer a rare glimpse at something more for a pattern like this ...but I mean "GLIMPSE" As in, that thing would be moving a ludicrous speed. Almost like a Feb 1995 bomb given that models' evolution.. Anyway, weak support -

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It has a C-1" for you. I didn't say it's wrong...just giving the highest chance out east.  We could also miss both.

I just don't see the first wave amplifying enough to give the region a moderate shot at snow right now, Lt snow east sure, Then it pulls the baroclinic zone east and does not allow the second wave to track closer unless we can get that northern stream s/w to dig for oil and phase with the s/w in the southern stream on Sunday, And yes, as mentioned yesterday, We could miss both, The first one kind of screws the pooch if we don't get that one to cooperate

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I just don't see the first wave amplifying enough to give the region a moderate shot at snow right now, Lt snow east sure, Then it pulls the baroclinic zone east and does not allow the second wave to track closer unless we can get that northern stream s/w to dig for oil and phase with the s/w in the southern stream on Sunday, And yes, as mentioned yesterday, We could miss both, The first one kind of screws the pooch if we don't get that one to cooperate

Yup, Friday is nothing and Sunday misses.  Most likely scenario right now with the info we have currently.  Things can change...but I'm not feeling to positive on either chances at the moment.  Oh well there will be more chances going forward.  Just would have been nice to pick up something from either one of these potentials.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, Friday is nothing and Sunday misses.  Most likely scenario right now with the info we have currently.  Things can change...but I'm not feeling to positive on either chances at the moment.  Oh well there will be more chances going forward.  Just would have been nice to pick up something from either one of these potentials.

Looks like you're :frostymelt:

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted

If everyone were to take the guidance at face value they aren't doing the guidance justice.  The fact that there are amped up members of the GEFS and EURO ensembles mean and the Canadian Mean as well as the 00z UKMET model tell me we cannot abandon the more amped up solutions at this time.  We can't simply ignore the fact that the operational models are having a tough time with the shortwave over the Great Lakes.  The GFS in two runs went from speeding up the arctic shortwave to a point where it was over the Maritimes before the pacific shortwave impacted our area, then the next run of the same model, slowed down the arctic jet shortwave almost to the point where they were phasing.  Now tell me that the model knows what it is doing with the atmosphere.  La Ninas toy with the models given the speed of the northern jet stream.  Especially with vortices running around the arctic jet stream flow interfering with storm development everywhere.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

If everyone were to take the guidance at face value they aren't doing the guidance justice.  The fact that there are amped up members of the GEFS and EURO ensembles mean and the Canadian Mean as well as the 00z UKMET model tell me we cannot abandon the more amped up solutions at this time.  We can't simply ignore the fact that the operational models are having a tough time with the shortwave over the Great Lakes.  The GFS in two runs went from speeding up the arctic shortwave to a point where it was over the Maritimes before the pacific shortwave impacted our area, then the next run of the same model, slowed down the arctic jet shortwave almost to the point where they were phasing.  Now tell me that the model knows what it is doing with the atmosphere.  La Ninas toy with the models given the speed of the northern jet stream.  Especially with vortices running around the arctic jet stream flow interfering with storm development everywhere.

Which amped up ECENS members are you referring to? I see 1 out of 51 that I would call "amped up."

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Agreed 100%. There is enough ensemble support to hold off making predictions. It's still too far out to make a call.

It's a psychological thing that people do.  It is a dicey situation which could develop but we won't know till like Thursday.  Odds are against it but they aren't astronomical, especially at this time of the year.

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