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January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Not surprised. I posted yesterday that this had the look of something sneaky with the cold high pressing down and a stalled front to the south with waves moving along it. Its trending towards a light snow to ice event especially the norther part of MD and N VA. Euro has been hinting at this for a few runs.

Been interesting watching the models on this feature. Just a few days ago the Euro had the boundary north of our area into central if not northern PA. GFS was south at that point and then started moving towards the Euro's northern solution as the Euro started moving south towards the GFS' old solution, Now we have the GFS moved back and in fairly good agreement with the Euro. Fun times. :)

Question, if you know. Euro has a tendency to under do precip totals on the North and western sector when dealing with coastals. Do you know off hand if that may also be the case when dealing with impulses running across a boundary? I myself can't recall. I ask because we see a little disconnect between the GFS and the Euro in that regards.

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16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Noticeable shift south with the boundary for this weekend on the 06Z GFS. Can be seen by looking at the snowfall maps that have shifted everything south 25-50 miles.

The precip type totals show it well.  Note this includes the rain we're getting this week before the weekend event.  

IMG_0025.PNG

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When I saw both the GFS and EC prog a 1040+ High to our north (Hudson Valley) reinforced by the strong upper level confluence, and the elongated SW upper flow, I thought man that looks like ice for us. I kept thinking wait until this gets into the NAM's range -- say what you want about the NAM, but it does have better vertical resolution in the low levels compared to the globals. Thus it came as no surprise that the NAM (3km in particular) did better in the last fzra even in maintaining the sub-freezing surface temps -- which would be the preferred trend so long as it's precipitating and/or you've already got an ice layer going. That diabatic/latent cooling from evaporation and any ice that's melting keeps us stuck at 32F or lower a lot longer than MOS would suggest in these types of CAD setups. It'll come down to how much precip can we can squeeze out if this. 

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11 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The precip type totals show it well.  Note this includes the rain we're getting this week before the weekend event.  

IMG_0025.PNG

6z GFS is a nice little event even for DC, much colder than previous runs.  The 12 hour precip map from at 84 hour has DC in the 0.25 contour and according to TT precip maps it's still frozen.  Maybe an inch of snow and a little crust on top.    

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EURO has DCA above freezing for all but 27 of the next 228 hours; however IF it holds, light snow could begin Saturday morning around 3 AM and continue into the early afternoon (0.19 liquid by 1 PM Sat when 800 mb T touches 0 C) before changing to light sleet/freezing rain (0.14 liquid).  Ambient Temperature rising very slowly from 29 to 32. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is becoming more and more likely to be the most significant event of the winter to date.

I tend to agree. If the next 12 and 0z op runs hold the precip max in the same general place then it's looking really good for a prolonged mixed bag. Nice to see the colder push in the mid levels as we close. It's been the other way around most of the winter. 

With the surface front stalled far enough south it's going to be tough to scour the surface wedge because the efficient mechanism to do it will take time to come north. The whole setup is basically stalled for overnight fri into Saturday night. 

As pointed out earlier, there's an extended period above freezing prior to precip onset but if we all drop 2-4 degrees below freezing early Saturday then it won't matter all that much except main roads probably won't see much impact other than wet. Side roads will be a different story because the rain on tap will wash the brine away. 

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17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is becoming more and more likely to be the most significant event of the winter to date.

Agreed, for you NW folks who missed out on the last event. I managed 6" here from the Saturday storm, and no way this will be a big deal imby. Hope it trends to a warning criteria event for y'all.

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

How did you did down in Bethany?

I was in Rehoboth. I didnt take an official measurement, but I guessed 9". There was a lot of drifting. I saw official reports of 10 at Lewes and over a foot in other places in southern DE. I posted some pics in the storm thread if you wanna check em out.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I was in Rehoboth. I didnt take an official measurement, but I guessed 9". There was a lot of drifting. I saw official reports of 10 at Lewes and over a foot in other places in southern DE. I posted some pics in the storm thread if you wanna check em out.

Nice. Sure beats the 5 minutes of flakes I saw for it. Knew I was out of the game days before so it didn't bother me too much. Did occasionally check for your pics but the thread was so active must have missed them.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Nice. Sure beats the 5 minutes of flakes I saw for it. Knew I was out of the game days before so it didn't bother me too much. Did occasionally check for your pics but the thread was so active must have missed them.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49506-1517-to-1817-obs-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4405970

 

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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I was in Rehoboth. I didnt take an official measurement, but I guessed 9". There was a lot of drifting. I saw official reports of 10 at Lewes and over a foot in other places in southern DE. I posted some pics in the storm thread if you wanna check em out.

Thats awesome , we have a place in Nassua . I would have loved to see it , up here in Middletown , DE , not that far away, I think we got 4 inches .  So beautiful at the beach when you get coastal snow and drifts.

Did you get a Surf bagel ?  Yum yum, may fav there  

 

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Nice pics. Best part of the whole thing is you probably didn't have to shovel. :)

 

Only when I got home lol.

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Thats awesome , we have a place in Nassua . I would have loved to see it , up here in Middletown , DE , not that far away, I think we got 4 inches .  So beautiful at the beach when you get coastal snow and drifts.

Did you get a Surf bagel ?  Yum yum, may fav there  

 

Yeah it was pretty awesome. And no I didn't. Not everything is open in winter. Mostly ate (and drank) at Fins and Dogfish. 

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35 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agreed, for you NW folks who missed out on the last event. I managed 6" here from the Saturday storm, and no way this will be a big deal imby. Hope it trends to a warning criteria event for y'all.

It's a lock.  I have to head south on 81 Saturday morning.  I'll miss whatever it ends up.  I am worried that my first 100 miles or so will be rough.

Good news is that Knoxville is supposed to be near 60 on Saturday.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

We probably don't want to root for too far south with the cold push. Precip is focused on the stalled mid-level boundary. The further south the 850 line goes the further south the snowfall goes too. 

I am happy right where it is... My bar is set to anything over an inch.  That would be the most for any single storm this year in my area.

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