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January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr
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Thanks bob.. Got it... Finally starting to understand the impacts of the various modes of circulation in that region. Still learning how they progress but getting a firmer understanding of where we want those features setup for cold looks on this side of the consus.

I really enjoy reading Typhoon Tip's and ORH's stuff in the New England thread. Even though their weather/climo is completely different then ours they have good insight (like you provide as well) into the different "options" moving forward.

One thing I found interesting in their recent discussion was the potential for model variability in the medium-ish range guidance due to a defacto pattern change... if/when we lose the -epo look in favor of a more +pna building. I think i have that right....

Don't want to misrepresent but I gathered that we shouldn't completely rule out the latter half of January, considering models typically struggle with the players changing on the field. Lastly, the mystical -nao is attempting to show itself so if that happens to make a sudden (and welcomed) appearance -- we all know that can also change any 10+ day look.

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Euro keeps the column mostly intact through 18z Sat. About a half inch of snow for for DC north and nearly 2" up in PSU land. Temp never goes above freezing through 0z Sun so freezing rain on top. Precip totals are blotchy so little confidence on who gets how much of what but a wintry event @ 4 day leads on this run. Not bad. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro keeps the column mostly intact through 18z Sat. About a half inch of snow for for DC north and nearly 2" up in PSU land. Temp never goes above freezing through 0z Sun so freezing rain on top. Precip totals are blotchy so little confidence on who gets how much of what but a wintry event @ 4 day leads on this run. Not bad. 

The Euro keeps trending this thing better run after run.  

I think by Thursday we may be looking at our second most interesting event of the year.  The potential for a messy Saturday is there.

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Some years being added to the day 8 and 11!analogs today are pretty good. And not centered way off from flips to better patterns in those years. 1958, 1978, 1987, 1960, and 1961 all making guest appearances in the analog list now.  Obviously those are picking up on Bobs point about the split flow and stj look emerging because a lot of ninos make the list. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some years being added to the day 8 and 11!analogs today are pretty good. And not centered way off from flips to better patterns in those years. 1958, 1978, 1987, 1960, and 1961 all making guest appearances in the analog list now.  Obviously those are picking up on Bobs point about the split flow and stj look emerging because a lot of ninos make the list. 

When were the first snowstorms after the flips in those years, were they delayed or pretty immediate in late January/early February?

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23 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

When were the first snowstorms after the flips in those years, were they delayed or pretty immediate in late January/early February?

All different some had snow periods centered mid feb to mid march like 1958. Some were mid Jan to mid feb like 1987. That's not really how you use them though. Every year is different. But some of the analog dates are centered only a few days or so before something good started those years.  That's a much better sign.  

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

All different some had snow periods centered mid feb to mid march like 1958. Some were mid Jan to mid feb like 1987. That's not really how you use them though. Every year is different. But some of the analog dates are centered only a few days or so before something good started those years.  That's a much better sign.  

Great.  Sounds like we could see dividends rather quickly after the flip.  I sure hope LR models and analogs are onto something here.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Some years being added to the day 8 and 11!analogs today are pretty good. And not centered way off from flips to better patterns in those years. 1958, 1978, 1987, 1960, and 1961 all making guest appearances in the analog list now.  Obviously those are picking up on Bobs point about the split flow and stj look emerging because a lot of ninos make the list. 

Euro day 10 reminds me of December 2015.

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro op might be trying to initiate the flip a few days ahead of schedule. Once the ridge pulls north enough heights under it will start to lower and things will flip. Another day of good signs imo. 

Have been liking what I am seeing as well. Is it just me or are the GEFS and EPS ensembles strongly hinting at a significant storm somewhere in the east roughly day 13-15?

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