CaryWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: FWIW since the Euro upgrade was released last winter I've found its tended to have significant suppression issues on storm systems in the 48-96 hour range at times. The January blizzard was one where it performed badly until inside 48 hours, although it was not yet officially operational until 2/15 or so. Yeah, we've really come a long way on our forecast technology if we have to wait for "long range" models to get inside of 48hrs for decent predictability on storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 So the camps have set up for the time being with GFS/GEFS/JMA/NAM more amped, CMC/EMWF on the suppressed end and UKMET kind of in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jon said: Not sure if you're joking but in case you aren't - lines up with GFS That was from yesterday...today's is a euro solution but more progression and brings SLP inland...way inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Who has the jma? And Pioneer, lol. seriously would like to see jma and how its trended. need to throw all these into the bowl and compare. Pack is right we are going to find out here within 36 to 48 hrs as we've pretty much nailed down the line in the sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: That was from yesterday...today's is a euro solution but more progression and brings SLP inland...way inland. Whoops! Didn't notice the date, figured WxBell would be current. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: At this point this is probably the most realistic. Yes but did he take out all the low outliers as well? You can't just discount some members of an ensemble because you think it will not occur. That's the purpose of averaging everything together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: FWIW since the Euro upgrade was released last winter I've found its tended to have significant suppression issues on storm systems in the 48-96 hour range at times. The January blizzard was one where it performed badly until inside 48 hours, although it was not yet officially operational until 2/15 or so. Sir...you mentioned in a previous thread the pattern doesn't fit suppression but a more northerly solution. Yet the Euro and other models save the GFS want to suppress the shortwave even at this time. Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Yes I did take out the low outliers, but there were hardly any. 1-2 inches is the mean after taking out the outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Yes but did he take out all the low outliers as well? You can't just discount some members of an ensemble because you think it will not occur. That's the purpose of averaging everything together. Isn't that what the eM panel is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Sir...you mentioned in a previous thread the pattern doesn't fit suppression but a more northerly solution. Yet the Euro and other models save the GFS want to suppress the shortwave even at this time. Why is that? Its completely a perfect thread the needle timing issue IMO. The shortwave ejects out in the flow at the optimal time for the system to be staying more south. A slight change in that time it begins ejecting out of the NW US and major changes may happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: So half its ensembles, weren't agreeing with the op solution, of suppressed!? Yes, but that other half wasn't good east of the central/northern mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Yes but did he take out all the low outliers as well? You can't just discount some members of an ensemble because you think it will not occur. That's the purpose of averaging everything together. There were literally only three ensemble members (out of like 20) with less than 2 inches for RDU, according to the graph. He's just stirring the pot, as usual. See for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 What time are the next model runs Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, odell.moton said: What time are the next model runs Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk EPS around 330 EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, chapelhillwx said: There were literally only three ensemble members (out of like 20) with less than 2 inches for RDU, according to the graph. He's just stirring the pot, as usual. See for yourself. If I'm reading that correctly, the mean is a little less than 4, correct? Take out those astronomically high outliers at the top and the mean goes down to around 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, odell.moton said: What time are the next model runs Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 18z runs are beginning now. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/index.html#TARGET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its completely a perfect thread the needle timing issue IMO. The shortwave ejects out in the flow at the optimal time for the system to be staying more south. A slight change in that time it begins ejecting out of the NW US and major changes may happen Thank you. I guess we know what the task at hand is...watch 500mb and see what happens as it ejects the shortwave. If things are going to trend in a direction on the GFS it should start fairly soon I would think. If not 18z then 0z perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 What 18z runs?? Next up is 12z euro ensembles right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: In my eyes 18z really doesn't start until 445 Look at the link. 18z is starting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: What 18z runs?? Next up is 12z euro ensembles right? Ncep not euro beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, CaryWx said: What 18z runs?? Next up is 12z euro ensembles right? 18z SREF AND NAM technically come out in next 15 mins or start running, but they are not really in range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: If I'm reading that correctly, the mean is a little less than 4, correct? Take out those astronomically high outliers at the top and the mean goes down to around 2 inches. You don't get to just change the mean around to fit your narrative like that. You could just as easily say anything below 2 inches is a low outlier and take those out instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: If I'm reading that correctly, the mean is a little less than 4, correct? Take out those astronomically high outliers at the top and the mean goes down to around 2 inches. Left out the bottom 4 and left out the top 4 that are over 14", added up the others and averages it out, and the mean was 4.5"... not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, chapelhillwx said: You don't get to just change the mean around to fit your narrative like that. You could just as easily say anything below 2 inches is a low outlier and take those out instead. But when most of the members are clumped that closely together at the bottom, are any of those statistically considered outliers? The ones at the top are many standard deviations higher than the rest, which is why I threw them out. I understand what you're saying, I just interpret the statistics different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Euro has highest verification scores at 5 days right? Was the 12z euro wheelhouse for Sat at noon (gmt) Euro is #1, UKMET #2. .927 and .915 I believe respectively. GFS is .903 or so. The Euro is prone to error though til about 72 hours. Inside 72 its rarely making major shifts at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM EST MON JAN 02 2017 VALID 12Z THU JAN 05 2017 - 12Z MON JAN 09 2017 PATTERN OVERVIEW... THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS MOSTLY INFLUENCED BY A RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE OR HIGH OVER ALASKA WHICH THEN MAKES WAY FOR AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OR UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WITH THESE FEATURES SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE HIGH-END PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR CALIFORNIA NEXT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TRANSIENT PATTERN FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD...AND CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL CHOICES AND CONFIDENCE... TWO CAMPS OF SOLUTIONS EMERGE AT THE START OF DAY 3/THU...WITH THE 00Z GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA...THUS PRODUCING MORE SEPARATION WITH THE RESIDUAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND THEREFORE ALLOWING THE NORTHWEST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH LONGER. THE OTHER CAMP OF SOLUTIONS IS REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH...THUS ALLOWING IT TO SLIGHTLY PHASE WITH THE RESIDUAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST...WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO EXIT THE NORTHWEST MORE QUICKLY. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD IS HIGH...THEREFORE INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE...RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN HIGHER WITH THE ECMWF-SCENARIO...WITH THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z PARALLEL GFS LEANING STRONGLY IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION. COMBINE THE 00Z CANADIAN...AND ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT. THUS...THE PREFERENCE IS ABOUT 70 PERCENT IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION FOR ALL 7 DAYS...WITH MORE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BLENDED EARLY FOR DETAIL AND AMPLITUDE...AND MORE ENSEMBLES USED LATE DUE TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. THESE CHOICES HOLD AS WELL FOR THE EAST COAST...WHICH IF THE 00Z GFS WERE TO BE CORRECT...WOULD SUPPORT A WINTER STORM FOR PARTS OF THE EAST COAST NEXT SUNDAY. HOWEVER...FOR REASONS LISTED ABOVE...ITS SOLUTION IS NEAR THE WESTERN AND DEEP EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH ONLY ABOUT 4 OUT OF 100 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING IT AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD...PREFER A SOLUTION MORE OFFSHORE AND PROGRESSIVE. SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE U.S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY TROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION DEVELOPS FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES/PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH FORMS NEAR BRITISH COLUMBIA. OTHERWISE...A POTENTIALLY HIGH-END ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR CALIFORNIA NEXT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH 48-HR LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR THE COASTAL RANGES...AND PERHAPS 5 TO 10 OR 12 INCHES FOR THE SIERRAS. THE EXTREME AMOUNTS ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE ALL OF THE ENSEMBLES SUITES...INCLUDING GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN...AS THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY EAST OF HAWAII LIFTS NORTHWARD AND IS PULLED ACROSS CALIFORNIA WITH PW ANOMALIES NEARING 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND PW RETURN INTERVALS NEARING 30 YEARS. JAMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Updated wpc model preference with 12z runs. They like the 12z uk..which seems like a good compromise UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MID-WEEK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF MEAN BLEND CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TOO FAST TO DROP THE CLOSED LOW SEWD INTO THE WRN U.S. ON WED/WED NIGHT WITH ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN HELD BACK SOME. THE 12Z ECMWF ADJUSTED A BIT SLOWER WHICH SEEMS LIKE A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION BUT THE 12Z ECMWF STILL APPEARS FASTER. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE 12Z NAM/GFS INSIST ON HOLDING ONTO THE CLOSED LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LONGER THAN THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE...BUT STAYING AWAY FROM THE EDGES OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD SUPPORTS A POSITION NEARER TO THE MIDDLE...BEST SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z UKMET. POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SINKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF MEAN BLEND CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE THIS SYSTEM TIES INTO THE SYSTEM REFERENCED ABOVE. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 00Z UKMET AND GEFS/GFS QUICKER AND DEEPER BUT THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE PAST 4 CYCLES. A TIMING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE NON GEFS BASED ENSEMBLES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Euro is #1, UKMET #2. .927 and .915 I believe respectively. GFS is .903 or so. The Euro is prone to error though til about 72 hours. Inside 72 its rarely making major shifts at that point. Thanks Goose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: But when most of the members are clumped that closely together at the bottom, are any of those statistically considered outliers? The ones at the top are many standard deviations higher than the rest, which is why I threw them out. I understand what you're saying, I just interpret the statistics different. Yeah, I understand what you mean too. It just seems like when there are a few members with a certain solution, it's worth including in the mean despite them being extreme. Then again, we all get screwed by the SREFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Navgem kind of middle ground too...the ULL gets dragged down but then eventually gets left behind and weak wave develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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