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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Because colder air is coming earlier now, the slug of moisture from 22-03Z which is the best chance it seems for heavier stuff in that area may be frozen.  It may be sleet though.  Here is the 12Z SPC WRF at 36 hours, everything moving SW to NE at that time

 

 

Goose, you've said the cold air is coming in earlier now, but the system is continuing to tick to the NW.  It seems that if the cold was pressing more and earlier, the storm track would be a little farther south.  Of course, you may be talking about a different area than I'm referring too.

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1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

A 70 % probability of 6" of snow here ? These maps are a joke.

I think you're in a good spot. The trends have definitely shifted the odds in your favor. I am much more concerned that south of I-20 is going to get a nice cold rain only.

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Goose, you've said the cold air is coming in earlier now, but the system is continuing to tick to the NW.  It seems that if the cold was pressing more and earlier, the storm track would be a little farther south.  Of course, you may be talking about a different area than I'm referring too.

Only in AL and GA.  It's always a different story for those areas on these Miller A type systems.  The cold has clearly been under modeled there and they don't have a deeper low developing to their SE like NC and VA do.  The whole cold air scenario in NC or VA is different because you have a developing deeper low coming up the coast and also mountains to the west 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Only in AL and GA.  It's always a different story for those areas on these Miller A type systems.  The cold has clearly been under modeled there and they don't have a deeper low developing to their SE like NC and VA do.  The whole cold air scenario there is different because you have a developing deeper low coming up the coast and also mountains to the west 

Good deal, thanks much!

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4 minutes ago, weatherfide said:

I think you're in a good spot. The trends have definitely shifted the odds in your favor. I am much more concerned that south of I-20 is going to get a nice cold rain only.

I would be more worried they see too little precip TBH then rain at this point.  Maybe Macon but if you mean the immediate southern ATL suburbs I'm less concerned about rain than I am too dry. 

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Awesome look from the GFS for MBY this morning.  Euro is not quite there yet with the QPF it seems though, still has that odd low point in the piedmont of NC.  I'd like to see that increase north and west to agree with the GFS before I get excited about anything over 4 inches.  Great that it seems like most in NC are getting in on the action.  I still think CLT has a bit more wiggle room but I'm not really looking for any further NW trend.  I liked the WPC track posted earlier.  That's about textbook.  

I think many tv mets are catching up to this thing.  Thankfully this is on a weekend so CLT won't be disrupted too bad, but other than Matt East, most I've seen have been WAY conservative.  Kudos so far to GSP, I think they've been just about right on this storm so far.  Great to have a storm on our front porch...and so early in the season!! Can't wait to see what February holds!! lol. 

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Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said:

How big is this afternoons Euro run ?

Very.  It's been inconsistent to an extent, especially the more northeast up the coast you go where itself and the ensembles waffled significant yesterday from one run to the next on how far west the bigger snows were.  I also expect to see it get colder in your area as its done so now for three runs 

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From 12z GFS at 1AM Saturday.  Blue shading is strong vertical lift in the upper levels.  Orange and red off the mid atlantic coast is a strengthening jet streak.  Diverging arrow vectors show the upper level divergence allowing precip to really blossom.  Impressive.

8ycapc.gif

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One thing to keep in mind with regard to accumulations is that even if you are getting 10:1 ratios, you won't get 10:1 ground truth due to compaction and such.

Still, the 12z GFS is making me really wish I was in Greensboro again...that's a legitimate 6-9" storm...hard to do much better than that in those parts.  I still think CLT/RDU are better places to be for this storm, but there's definitely more mixing risk there.  But I'm sitting on the beach in San Juan, so oh well. :lol:

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

From 12z GFS at 1AM Saturday.  Blue shading is strong vertical lift in the upper levels.  Orange and red off the mid atlantic coast is a strengthening jet streak.  Diverging arrow vectors show the upper level divergence allowing precip to really blossom.  Impressive.

 

Awesome Grit, and the NC piedmont is right in the middle of it.  That's why I say it's odd the EURO keeps the precip lower in the piedmont, you'd think it'd be higher as the GFS has come around to.  Hoping we get consistency in this next run. 

Then tomorrow we start sweating other models!! On to the HWMRF-1000, RGM, NAM, HHHHHHHR, etc. :snowing:

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

From 12z GFS at 1AM Saturday.  Blue shading is strong vertical lift in the upper levels.  Orange and red off the mid atlantic coast is a strengthening jet streak.  Diverging arrow vectors show the upper level divergence allowing precip to really blossom.  Impressive.

8ycapc.gif

 

I think you just explained that better than I have ever read anywhere....KUDOS

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From FFC about an hour ago. An upgrade to Winter Storm Warnings may come as early as this afternoon...

621
FXUS62 KFFC 051627
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1127 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017


.UPDATE...
Forecast remains tricky with regards to snowfall accumulations and
timing of onset Friday. The overnight ensembles have reiterated
previous solutions with higher snowfall amounts over the metro
Atlanta area as convective banding dumps snow over the area late
Friday through Saturday morning. At this time, have focused the
update on hourly temperatures, dew points, QPF and snowfall
amounts. Will continue to monitor the 12z models as they come in
before doing another round of updates for the afternoon forecast
package, but for now 4"+ snowfall possible for portions of the
eastern metro area, with most of the Atlanta metro generally
seeing 2-3". Winter Storm Watch still in effect and will likely
need to upgrade to Warnings/Advisories this afternoon given the
current forecast amounts.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

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Great GFS run and the ensembles all look almost identical. Also love seeing the graph of over an inch of precip that should be snow, and a 99.9% chance of 3 inches or greater for almost all of NC. Yeah, the temps are always a worry in the back of our minds around here, but as of now everything looks great for a big winter storm. 

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16 minutes ago, griteater said:

From 12z GFS at 1AM Saturday.  Blue shading is strong vertical lift in the upper levels.  Orange and red off the mid atlantic coast is a strengthening jet streak.  Diverging arrow vectors show the upper level divergence allowing precip to really blossom.  Impressive.

4

 

Might be able to get some thundersnow out of that. 

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sure seems like in the UpState/GSP area we are using a lot of precip to wet-bulb.  End up using over half of the precip to bring 2M temps below freezing.  I think this particular area has a huge bust potential.

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