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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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8 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

About half the SREF is made up of a NAMesque suite so this is not a surprise, or really an indication where the 0z globals or RGEM will go.

I said same thing in my post and to re emphasize sref and nam are 1 in 2 , 2 in 1 same family, so everyone would be wise to wait for more evidence from other models before tipping the hat. I will say this though the nam and sref really throw suport to trough axis sfl placement in the ukmet and that german model camp. Now thermal profiles that's always impossible to nail exactly this far out.

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2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

12z Para...hard to argue the NW trend inside 48.  The NAM's are probably onto something...sucks for us in Raleigh but can't deny it.

 

The way I'm thinking about it is we may get some mixing, but that's due to getting more moisture on shore - the jackpots are very close to us.. 

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

12z Para...hard to argue the NW trend inside 48.  The NAM's are probably onto something...sucks for us in Raleigh but can't deny it.

gfsp_asnow_eus_fh72_trend.gif

The NW trend is happening but i really think the NAM is too far NW. i remember models showing the heaviest precip to our southeast.  it's slowly moved up in our direction.  Unless the Euro and GFS cave to the NAM i wont take it seriously

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Where the NAM goes wrong..is further out in time it explodes Asheville mountain area with fantasy precip and shoves it north-west. Out to 26 looks right with little to nothing south-central VA, north-west NC, north-west GA, while the main areas pile up.

Precip progression is key and the main areas see it first. Makes me doubt further out in time.

nam3km_asnow_seus_27.png&key=1dcca8877c4fa408cf81d5b335d488deb52b8670af528f663c9f2d4bf6699b67

gfsp_asnow_eus_fh72_trend.gif



That's not fantasy precip, I mentioned several days ago to keep an eye out for a finger of precip that could extend out from the main batch. This happened with the Dec '10 storm for the Mtn's and foothills adding to the totals drastically. Some folks in the Mtn's and foothills may get 1-3" before the main show even arrives and that's what the NAM is showing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Just now, ajr said:

The way I'm thinking about it is we may get some mixing, but that's due to getting more moisture on shore - the jackpots are very close to us.. 

I have little doubt the triangle will mix, especially in SE Wake but the NAM's are almost all sleet, and a shout away from rain.   I was hoping for 50/50 mix.

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5 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

The NW trend is happening but i really think the NAM is too far NW. i remember models showing the heaviest precip to our southeast.  it's slowly moved up in our direction.  Unless the Euro and GFS cave to the NAM i wont take it seriously

what you are forgetting is that the 18Z OP GFS stopped its NW trend and held firm. OP and Para have been step and step together so at 18z the para very very likely quit its NW trend

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About the mixing - I don't see that as such a bad thing.  Sure a boatload of snow is cool.  However, my experience has taught me that the same qpf of sleet takes longer to melt than the same qpf of snow.  Also, the sleet makes for much better sledding.  So, I don't put as much distinction between snow and sleet as most.  Enjoy whatever you get.

TW

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If the NAM winds up being close to accurate, we will definitely have to start taking the ole DWD Icon model serious. It's been showing this solution for several days now.

I don't know about you guys, but I'm on pin and needles waiting for the rgem.

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Here is my view on the NAM. Could its overamped solution be correct? Sure. But the NAM and the SREF members all use the NCEP WRF ARW or NMM core. Thus they in essence have alot of similarities in physics schemes, parameterizations. Thus it isnt surprising to see them all showing a similar solution.

For me to start really buying it, I would like to see the RGEM another mesoscale model show the same type of scenario. That would be a different model core showing it and that would be important. Also the globals, although the globals with a bit more coarse resolution can miss the warm nose strength, while the mesoscale models capture it better with their higher resolution.

Taken literally the NAM would be quite the snow gradient across Wake County and the Triangle in general.

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29 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The NAM is a Big Frosty special. Even the Triad looks close to mixing, it would seem.  Yikes.

The SREF plumes have Triad mixing

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Yeah NAM is literally 1...maybe 2 degrees away from greatness for Atlanta. It's just the 850s that are the problem. The mid levels look fine to me. Don't see any problems with the 500-800mb layer. 925 layer looks fine as well. I've been on the wrong side of a rain/snow or snow/sleet storm many times though so we'll see...

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

 

Negative. The LP on the 18Z GFS moved 50-75 miles NW of the position on the 12Z GFS 

interesting because you must be looking at another model than me it certaintly did not. maybe like 10 miles lol

 

Hour 36 its 50 miles south

hr 42 it may be like a millimeter eaast

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Just now, LovingGulfLows said:

Yeah NAM is literally 1...maybe 2 degrees away from greatness for Atlanta. It's just the 850s that are the problem. The mid levels look fine to me. Don't see any problems with the 500-800mb layer. 925 layer looks fine as well. I've been on the wrong side of a rain/snow or rain/sleet storm many times though so we'll see...

The NAM has it raining there til 02z, but I don't buy it based on the sounding.  It looks like PL or even FZRA to me.

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Regarding the NW trend - experience has taught me that when you see a large trend over time to the NW, there is often a slight adjustment back to the south at the end.  Hang in there is you're near the southern edge.  I think there will be some adjustment back to the south at some point.

TW

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6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

If the NAM winds up being close to accurate, we will definitely have to start taking the ole DWD Icon model serious. It's been showing this solution for several days now.

I did some reading up on the ICON...  "The predecessor of ICON was named GME"...  

Here is a link to the website... https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

It does seem to have been the model with the least amount of change the past several runs...  Where is the best site to see maps?  are they free?

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1 minute ago, tarheelwx said:

Regarding the NW trend - experience has taught me that when you see a large trend over time to the NW, there is often a slight adjustment back to the south at the end.  Hang in there is you're near the southern edge.  I think there will be some adjustment back to the south at some point.

TW

Yup, the big trend north late usually has a small trend back to normal.

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