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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1
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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

This is EXACTLY what we want to see at this range.  You might could take the paint brush and edit the features slightly to make it more optimal, but I assure you, you wouldn't be using a lot of paint. :)

We are forecast to go 77 or maybe warmer on Sunday. I have seen many a snow storm come in behind a very warm day. We will see.

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Just now, griteater said:

CMC - still bringing the storm out quicker...looks like it may have a little wintry precip in N NC into VA.

UKMet - looks a lot like the GFS at the end of its run at 144

CMC is junk way out here.  UK is where we want the agreement.  This will come north.  I still question the amount of cold that will be available.  We'll see....

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

CMC is junk way out here.  UK is where we want the agreement.  This will come north.  I still question the amount of cold that will be available.  We'll see....

I had a dog and his name was...bingo! The lakes lows have disappeared and replaced with Highs so that's great.  But that's with suppression.  When this thing INEVITABLY comes north (less ridging in the west, northern trend of the vortex, etc) will the cold still be there? I doubt it. 

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There will be energy in the northern stream that eventually plays a role in the development and track of the surface storm.  Where is the energy that will interact with it?  We don't really know yet.  How and when that happens will matter a great deal.

Also of importance is the vortex in the NE.  The GFS has that bombing out as energy gets fed into it from the west (red arrow).  I've posted the UK map to show the unknowns in the northern stream as well as the potential for bombing of the NE storm.  If that storm bombs, it stays put for a while.  This is extremely important for locking in confluence, pressing the heights south, allowing HP to become stronger and build in, and keeping the system south.

The additional energy in the northern stream, that we don't really have a good handle on yet, will influence the strength and track of the storm as well.  Lots of potential here....IF we can get the vortex to bomb and stay in place.  The trends are very good.

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif.776beb8c90653a437f4fd44be161b726.gif

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IF this was to pan out it would be almost to the day that most of NC and SC got winter weather for the first time in 1989. And that came after a couple of VERY warm days with temps up close to 80 in some spots. I could be wrong of course, but I'd be feeling hopeful if I lived along I-95 and east in NC, up into SE Virginia, based on how the last half of Feb 1989 went.

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

I haven't seen Cold Rain this pumped since Dec 2010.  He's dying to throw out the Joe Namath G word!

By the way, this happened in Philly with today's storm....sounds like how we roll

iU0UOve.gif

 

Haha no way, not with ULLs.  I only Gword phase bombs. :)  And lol at that tweet.  That's exactly what we do here.

I'm honestly probably a little overenthusiastic here given the lack of truly arctic air and snow pack to our NW.  If we had those two elements present, I'd give us an 80% of a significant winter storm for much of the SE.  As it stands right now, the storm has to come somewhat north to get appreciable precip in here.  That brings warm air, warm noses, etc.  There should be a narrow zone of snow somewhere though, if it comes far enough north.  If we get a phase bomb, who knows.  Someone should get plastered, but there just doesn't look to be enough cold air around for most to get wintry weather.

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Late in the GEFS run we lose the blocking but go back into a -EPO/+PNA pattern like in January.  Blocking didn't last long, but still probably cold and possible for something last week in February perhaps. And I may be wrong but it looks like the STJ is active too.  Can't quite give up on the long range yet.  Unless EPS is right...

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_62.png

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